Micron Stock Falls. Why Buybacks Could be Crucial for Gains.

Dow Jones
1 hour ago

Shares of Micron Technology fell to end the week, and the memory-chip company looked broadly range-bound as the stock was buffeted by the wider debate around the artificial-intelligence trade.

Micron dropped 0.6% to $1,029 on Friday. The stock fell 4.8% on Thursday, driven by a Financial Times report that OpenAI's annualized recurring revenue was $20 billion lower than previously signaled.

AI stocks were recovering Friday as analysts and additional media reports suggested the figures were being confused by discrepancies between how OpenAI and its rival Anthropic measure their revenue. Micron was getting a boost but remained broadly in the range of $1,000 and $1,100, where it has traded since mid-September.

Barron's previously argued Micron could double when it traded at around $1,100 amid a continued memory shortage. The next major catalyst could be when Micron is able to start major stock buybacks, which will be from Dec. 9, under the conditions of its 2024 U.S. Chips Act funding.

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri has argued Micron could start by buying back about $20 billion worth of shares a quarter, rising to around $50 billion quarterly toward the end of its fiscal year 2027, which would be September next year.

That would indicate Micron would be repurchasing up to $200 billion in shares a year, similar in scale to Nvidia's recently announced record stock buyback.

"Said differently, this now lays the path for Micron to buy back 30% of the company over the next two years and potentially about half through 2029," Arcuri wrote in a recent research note.

Arcuri has a Buy rating and $1,625 target price on Micron shares.

 

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