The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0927 GMT - The dollar has limited scope to fall as bond markets and risk sentiment remain fragile while the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates again in December, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. The dollar has lost some ground as the sharp rise in Treasury yields pauses but there are no signs of broader correction in the currency, he says. President Trump has said the U.S. won't attack Iran before November's midterms "but the oil market is reluctant to price out the geopolitical premium that has kept prices above $100 per barrel." ING expects a slightly stronger dollar in the near term. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 102.046 after hitting a near 18-month high of 101.535 Monday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0923 GMT - The Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates in November followed by another increase in February, preventing sterling from falling, Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note. "The U.K. economy has remained relatively resilient so far this year." This supports the case for raising rates given recent stickier-than-anticipated inflation, he says. The market is pricing two rate increases by February so the potential tightening might not have much impact on sterling. However, Commerzbank had previously expected sterling to weaken towards year-end and now expects it to trade sideways versus the euro in coming months. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.8478 pounds, having reached a 16-month low of 0.8445 Wednesday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)By Emese Bartha U.S. Treasury yields reversed course and turned slightly higher on Friday, although long-dated yields remained comfortably below the 24-year highs reached earlier in the week, helped by falling oil prices.
Eurozone government bond yields slid in early trade, catching up with earlier falls in Treasury yields following Thursday's well-received 30-year Treasury auction.
"It's been a good week for U.S. bond auctions," ING's Padhraic Garvey, regional head of research for the Americas, and Benjamin Schroeder, senior rates strategist, said in a note. "Solid 10-year and 30-year auctions over consecutive days show there is a level where buyers step in."
The 10-year Treasury yield last traded 0.3 basis points higher at 5.234%, while the 30-year yield increased 0.1 basis point to 5.608%, according to Tradeweb. They reached 24-year highs of 5.365% and 5.733%, respectively, earlier this week.
In the eurozone, the German 10-year Bund yield fell 5.4 basis points to 3.452%. French bonds outperformed, reversing some of the recent sharp rise in yields due to budget concerns. Yields on 10-year French government bonds, or OATs, fell 10 basis points to 4.795%.
Still, concerns about France remain due to doubts over the government's ability to reduce the budget deficit target to 5% of gross domestic product in 2027 due to a fragmented parliament. The government's plans to cut expenditure are among a number of factors which have prompted nationwide demonstrations in France.
Investors are also wary about France's significant volume of upcoming government bond issuance.
France will issue bonds again on Thursday next week. Hefty supply will likely maintain selling pressure on OATs and keep yields high, Citi rates strategist Jamie Searle and Puja Sawant said in a note.
Issuance looks set to be particularly hefty early next year, which might concern investors, they said. The French Treasury Agency said in late September that it had penciled in 340 billion euros ($381.23 billion) in medium- and long-term government bond issuance, net of buybacks, for 2027. This target volume compares with this year's issuance target of 310 billion euros.
The outlook for global government bonds overall looks brighter, however, after yields on many major developed-market bonds recently surged to multiyear highs, Benoit Anne, head of market insights at MFS Investment Management, said in a note.
Markets might have gone too far in pricing in interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, leaving scope for some retracement and a potential relief rally in government bonds, he said. Money markets fully price in three rate increases in the next 12 months, LSEG data showed.