A big test is coming for the battered U.S. government bond market.
The Treasury Department is offering up a fresh round of supply this week. Nearly $60 billion in 3-year notes will be auctioned on Tuesday, followed by Wednesday’s $39 billion auction of 10-year notes, and Thursday’s $22 billion 30-year bond auction.
Treasury auctions are common. But this week’s auctions are coming at particularly sensitive time for the bond market. The 10-year yield rose to to 5.31% on Monday, its highest since 2002. The brutal meltdown of long-duration Treasuries has taken the $47 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF to a record low as its fallen for 10 straight days—its longest losing streak on record.
Concerns about the developed world being unable to handle its finances and continuing to grow its debt pile have contributed to the selloff in government bonds around the globe. In the U.S., expectations of higher Federal Reserve interest rate targets and strong economic growth have kept investors away from Treasuries. Elevated inflation amid the ongoing U.S. war with Iran also continues to hamper the case for Treasuries; the purchasing power of the fixed payouts from Treasuries are worth less if inflation climbs.
In this environment, investors are watching bond auctions more carefully for signs of how much supply—that is to say, how much additional government debt—investors are willing and able to digest.
“The auctions promise to be closely watched as a snapshot of the demand for duration at the current juncture,” writes BMO Capital Markets strategist Ian Lyngen. “The fiscal angst has contributed to our worry that the 10- and 30-year auctions could struggle.”
He adds that the market action seen last Friday—when bond prices saw a bit of relief on diminished expectations for Fed hikes, only to lose steam —“reflects the market’s emphasis on the global fiscal narrative over the US fundamentals at the moment” and “implies this week’s duration supply will require a more meaningful concession.”
In other words, the continued deterioration in the U.S. fiscal picture could lead investors to demand higher yields.
Then again, yields have already risen substantially, which may lead to increased demand.
“I would say given yields where they are today, I think you’re getting a lot of natural buyers coming into the market. So I would think that the [auction] results should probably be pretty strong,” says Joyce Huang, head of multisector fixed income client portfolio management at Vanguard.
All of the major auctions since mid-September have been week. On Sept. 22, a two-year auction drew soft demand, and a weaker-than-expected five-year auction the next day lowered Treasury prices across the board. The 10-year yield, specifically, rose to its highest level since 2007. A day later, on Sept. 24, a weak seven-year auction helped push the 10-year yield even higher.
This week, we might easily see that rise continue.