Fertilizer markets remain strong due to tight supply and supportive crop prices, although the US-Iran war could add further volatility, RBC said in a note Monday.

The analysts said fertilizer prices remained strong through Q3 despite seasonal slowdown. Nitrogen prices recovered quickly from mid-year lows, while phosphate prices stayed tight and potash prices were broadly stable.

Stronger crop prices are supporting fertilizer demand and agricultural conditions are expected to remain tight into early 2027 due to yield risks, weather uncertainty and lower phosphate applications. However, the US-Iran war remains a key source of volatility, the analysts said.

"We see Mosaic (MOS) as most impacted by phosphate market challenges and see re-start risks along with challenged near-term cash generation," the analysts added.

RBC downgraded Mosaic from outperform to sector perform and reduced its price target from $27 to $25.

The bank maintained its ratings and price targets for CF Industries (CF) at sector perform with a $115 target, LSB Industries (LXU) at outperform with a $13 target, and Nutrien (NTR) at outperform with an $85 target.

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