High U.S. Treasury Yields Doesn't Mean They are Cheap

Dow Jones
5 hours ago

0659 GMT - ​For U.S. Treasury valuation, a high yield doesn't necessarily mean Treasurys are cheap, Barclays's Demi Hu and Anshul Pradhan say in a note. If most of the yield reflects expected short rates, investors receive less additional compensation for holding duration rather than rolling shorter-maturity instruments, the strategists say. "A higher term premium provides more compensation, but also reflects greater uncertainty and duration risk," they say, adding that the distinction also affects where risk lies along the curve. A reassessment of the near-term policy path should be concentrated primarily in the front-end and belly, or intermediate segment, while a durable increase in term premium or long-run neutral rate assumptions should exert greater pressure further out the curve, they say.

 

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