TradingKey - On August 25, Eastern Time, shares of SpaceX (SPCX) fell by only about 1% following the second post-IPO lockup expiration on August 20, as the market absorbed the additional share supply relatively smoothly.
Meanwhile, share price catalysts for SpaceX continue to build. JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth maintained an "Overweight" rating on SpaceX with a price target of $240, representing an upside potential of approximately 70% from current levels.
The firm stated that after SpaceX completed its $60 billion acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor, Grok is expected to further penetrate the enterprise artificial intelligence market.
Anmuth noted that SpaceX's acquisition of Cursor is a significant step toward expanding its enterprise AI capabilities. JPMorgan stated that Grok's recent performance has shown "marked improvement" after incorporating Cursor's accumulated coding data for supplementary training. Cursor's coverage of real-world development scenarios and enterprise clients is expected to help SpaceX accelerate model optimization and push Grok beyond a general-purpose chat tool toward enterprise applications such as software development, data analysis, and knowledge work.
SpaceX's xAI division recently launched Grok 4.6, focusing on complex, multi-step tasks such as research, data analysis, software development, and application creation. JPMorgan believes that Grok 4.6 features stronger reasoning capabilities while being priced lower than some competing products, which could help drive user adoption.
In addition, SpaceX plans to build a $100 billion Starship launch base along the southern coast of Louisiana, adding a third Starship launch site.
The base will help SpaceX increase Starship launch frequency and support future plans to deploy up to 1 million data center satellites. Starship will also be used in the future to launch upgraded Starlink satellites, conduct orbital data center missions as early as 2027, and carry NASA astronauts to the Moon as early as 2028.
SpaceX daily chart, Source: TradingView
SpaceX's share price has been fluctuating between $135 and $150 recently, indicating that the rebound from lows has transitioned into a consolidation phase to absorb selling pressure, with bulls and bears contending for direction around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($138.75).
The latest price has reclaimed the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, with short-term buyers regaining some initiative. However, judging from the moving average positions, the 80-day moving average ($140.68) still weighs above price levels, and the current price has not yet firmly held above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($138.75). Therefore, today's price gain should be defined more as a corrective rebound within a consolidation range, rather than standalone confirmation that the medium-term downtrend has ended.
To the upside, if price can effectively reclaim and hold above $138.75 while breaking through the 80-day moving average ($140.68), the rebound structure is expected to strengthen further. Key levels to watch above include the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($146.69), with a further target at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level (around $157).
If price faces resistance again in the $138.75–$140.68 region, it may return to consolidate around $135. To the downside, key focus should be on support near the 20-day moving average ($134.77) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ($130.81).
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