Nvidia earnings are one of the most highly anticipated market events in recent weeks. But if history is any indication, traders bracing for explosive stock moves may be disappointed.

Nvidia's share price has averaged a 2.8% loss the day after reporting earnings over the past four quarters-a relatively minor change compared with the kind of moves it registered just a few years ago. Take a look at the jumps the stock saw as the AI revolution was taking off in 2023 and 2024.

The difference lately is that blockbuster Nvidia results are simply no longer good enough for the world's most valuable company. According to Bespoke Investment Group, Nvidia has registered a "triple play"-meaning it beat EPS and revenue estimates and raised its guidance-in 14 of its past 20 quarters, including in the last three. And yet, shares finished lower the next day on all three occasions.

"For most companies, it's not common to report an earnings triple play, but for NVDA, it's now expected," Bespoke said in a recent report. Nvidia, it added, will need to do more than that to get a post-earnings boost.