Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
17 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0953 ET - Bank of Nova Scotia's adjusted EPS beat was driven by strength in its capital markets unit, according to TD Cowen's Mario Mendonca. The analyst views the F3Q earnings as positive for near-term momentum. All bank net interest margin came in lower as international banking's NIM dropped 7 basis points quarter-over-quarter. "While IB loan growth remains soft (non-retail) overall balance sheet growth was better than expected," Mendonca says. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0848 ET - Companies are increasingly mentioning extreme weather and climate strategies in earnings calls, says Sara Mahaffy, RBC Capital Markets' head of global sustainability strategy research. Mentions of extreme weather and climate adaptation strategies reached new highs in Europe's second-quarter reporting season, the analyst says in a research note. RBC notes that insurers, including Hannover Re, highlighted rising risks from climate change and geopolitical uncertainty. Generali sees the protection gap--the difference between total economic losses and insured losses--from increased extreme weather as a major long-term trend, RBC says. "While these topics have typically been most in focus for utilities, insurance, industrials, and materials sectors, we are also starting to see a pickup in mentions among consumer and health care sectors in certain regions as impacts are increasingly felt," Mahaffy says. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0805 ET - U.S. life insurance companies could face more pressure relative to their eurozone peers as regulators and investors increasingly scrutinize the firms' exposure to the private credit industry, TwentyFour Asset Management's Jakub Lichwa says in a note. U.S. life insurers have relatively larger investments in the private credit sector than their eurozone peers, making some U.S. insurers more vulnerable, he says. "We see European life insurers as more insulated from this year's developments in the U.S., supported by the regulatory and fundamental picture in Europe." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0803 ET - Bank of Montreal handily beat adjusted earnings expectations in F3Q thanks to strong performances in equity trading and wealth management. TD Cowen analyst Mario Mendonca says in a report that BMO's adjusted EPS of C$3.96 topped his estimate of C$3.73 and the Wall Street consensus of C$3.77. All segments reported growth, Mendonca says, while the bank also had lower-than expected credit loss provisions of C$722 million versus TD's estimate of C$755 million. Strong equity trading volumes helped prop up the capital markets and wealth management units, Mendonca says.(adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0250 ET - Jupiter Fund Management has a strong balance sheet, which provides options for future inorganic growth, Berenberg analysts say. The London-listed money manager's balance sheet also supports attractive shareholder returns. While asset management shares can be risky, Berenberg expects Jupiter to outperform when wider investor sentiment improves. Jupiter's cash flows have also turned positive, unlike many of the company's peers, the analysts add. "While it remains difficult to predict flows with any kind of certainty, with investor sentiment constantly shifting on geopolitical news, we believe that Jupiter has a diverse, attractive range of funds that should deliver growth," the analysts say. Berenberg starts coverage of the stock with a buy recommendation and target price of 187 pence. Shares closed at 164.40 pence on Monday. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0220 ET - Srisawad Corp.'s growth is likely to resume at 11% EPS CAGR in 2026-2028 after flat earnings in 2023-2025, ttb wealth securities' Rawisara Suwanumphai says in a research report. The Thai financial services provider is entering a structurally lower operating expenditure cycle via operational optimization and slower branch expansion, the analyst says. It is deploying tablets to enable staff to serve customers in the field rather than waiting in-branch, with technology and AI helping to rationalize headcount. The brokerage upgrades the stock's rating to buy from hold and raises the stock's target price to 34.00 baht from THB23.50. Shares are 3.0% higher at THB24.00. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0103 ET - Navigator Global Investments' bulls at UBS think the alternative-asset manager's stronger fiscal 2027 outlook was masked from investors' view by what they call near-term noise. Maintaining a buy rating on the stock, UBS analysts tell clients in a note that below-the-line cuts to asset valuations overshadowed otherwise healthy operating trends. They say any fiscal 2026 earnings shortfall stemmed from a small number of legacy partners, with scale and profit distributions growing on newer private-markets partners. They continue to see scope for both organic and inorganic earnings growth over the medium term. UBS maintains a target price of 3.60 Australian dollars on the stock. Shares are up 7.9% at A$2.59. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2337 ET - Navigator Global Investments' bull at Morgans reckons the alternative-asset manager's momentum is intact despite its slight annual earnings miss. Analyst Richard Coles tells clients in a note that the Australian company's underlying Ebitda for the 12 months through June was about 3% below consensus. However, Coles points out that inflows look set to continue into the current fiscal year and that Navigator's recently acquired stable portfolio is performing in line with expectations. He lowers his annual adjusted profit forecasts through fiscal 2029 by between 4.2% and 4.5%, but keeps a buy rating on the stock. Morgans trims its target price 2.9% to 3.04 Australian dollars. Shares are up 6.7% at A$2.56. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2230 ET - Bendigo & Adelaide Bank still isn't offering anything to UBS analysts that would justify a rerating of its stock. With an unchanged neutral rating on the stock, the analysts say the Australian bank is improving operationally without presenting a catalyst for them to become more bullish. The UBS analysts tell clients in a note that fiscal 2027 will be a harder year for the regional lender, pointing to the overhang of regulatory scrutiny and emerging pressure on mortgage margins. Quicker progress by the bank on reducing costs or hitting its return-on-equity target would be catalysts for a more positive view, they add. UBS cuts its target price by 7.1% to 10.50 Australian dollars. Shares are up 3.4% at A$10.81. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2217 ET - Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's cost guidance implies material risk to the consensus forecast for fiscal 2028 earnings, Macquarie analysts warn. They tell clients in a note that Bendigo's expectation that business-as-usual costs will grow by 4%-5% in fiscal 2027 sits above the regional lender's medium-term guidance. They think that the next year or two will be challenging, with margin headwinds outweighing fading tailwinds, credit growth slowing, and increased focus on regulatory standards. Ultimately, they think return on equity is capped at 7%, well below Bendigo's 10% target. Macquarie keeps an underperform rating on the stock with an unchanged target price of 9.00 Australian dollars. Shares are up 3.6% at A$10.83. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1418 ET - UBS analysts are souring on Klarna Group after the financial-technology company slashed its outlook for gross merchandise volume last week. The magnitude of the guidance cut "suggests a meaningful downtick in international growth expectations, particularly for Germany," the analysts say. The analysts also point to upcoming changes to Klarna's C-suite, with its chief financial officer and chief marketing officer--both long time executives at the company--departing over the coming quarters. With both factors adding uncertainty in the near term, the analysts downgrade the stock to neutral from buy, despite seeing the company well-positioned within the buy now, pay later market. They also cut their price target on the stock to $16 from $23.

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