World trade flows rose sharply in June, aided by the boom in artificial intelligence-related investment and despite the disruption caused by the Iran war.

The continued expansion of cross-border trade is a fresh sign that the global economy has so far weathered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping.

However, continued disruptions to shipping and the introduction of new taxes on imports by the Trump administration threaten to slow trade flows in the second half of the year.

The volume of goods moving across national borders rose by 2% from May, when flows increased by 0.5%, according to figures released Tuesday by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Also known as the CPB, the bureau has long tracked world trade as a key influence on the Dutch economy.

Exports from Asia continued to increase during June, but there was also a rebound in sales from the Middle East after a sharp drop in the first three months of the war.

The CPB reported that exports from Africa and the Middle East rose by 16.1% from May, but remained well below the volumes seen in February.

Trade volumes fell sharply in the first full month of the U.S.-Iran war, but have risen since then to exceed their February levels. Nevertheless, across the second quarter as a whole they were little changed from the first three months of the year.

Trade flows withstood the sharp increase in U.S. tariffs announced in 2025, with the volume of exports and imports rising by 4.2% during the year, a sharp acceleration from 2.6% in 2024.

A surge in U.S. demand for semiconductors and other electronic equipment needed to outfit data centers was a key driver of that surge. In a paper published earlier this month, economists at the Federal Reserve calculated that if it were not for the AI boom, U.S. imports would have fallen by 10% in 2025 as a result of the tariff increases, instead of rising as they did.

"The investment boom is so strong that imports of capital goods increase despite their tariffs," the economists wrote in a paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. "And because capital goods are roughly a third of imports, the induced import demand from the investment boom is large enough to hold up aggregate imports."

That boost to trade appears to have continued in the first half of 2026, and has spread beyond the Asian economies that dominate production of AI-related equipment. Germany's statistics agency on Tuesday raised its estimate of quarter-to-quarter economic growth in the three months through June to 0.3% from 0.2%.

"As in the first quarter, growth was primarily driven by the positive development of exports," said Ruth Brand, president of the Federal Statistical Office.

Traditionally reliant on exports for much of its growth, the German economy flatlined between 2019 and the middle of last year as its manufacturing sector adjusted to higher energy costs in the wake of Russia's 2022 fullscale invasion of Ukraine and stiffer competition from China. But the economy has picked up momentum since the final three months of last year, once again supported by exports.

That appears to have continued into the third quarter, with a measure of manufacturing activity compiled by S&P Global pointing to the fastest expansion in four and a half years. Export orders rose at the fastest pace since February 2022--the month that Russia launched its invasion--which in part reflected demand from data centers.

Germany's economic resilience, based partly on the strength of trade, was reflected in the performance of advanced economies in the second quarter. Despite the uncertainties created by the war, and the jump in energy prices, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on Monday reported that growth in the 30 members for which data was available accelerated to 0.5% in the second quarter, from 0.4% in the first.

U.S. tariff policy remains a key uncertainty for those attempting to forecast world trade flows and growth. President Trump on Monday threatened to impose tariffs of 50% on imports of automobiles and auto parts from Canada, the latest escalation in a trade war between the two closely connected economies.

Meanwhile, further increases in tariffs on other countries appear likely. In July, the administration announced a range of new taxes under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to replace an expiring across-the-board 10% duty that itself replaced a range of so-called "reciprocal" tariffs that were judged illegal.

But the administration is also working on new duties on 16 countries that are alleged to have "structural excess capacity."