The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
0904 ET - Treasury yields fall alongside oil prices as the U.S. increases sanctions on Iran. Crude futures fall 3% and Brent trades below $90. The WSJ Dollar Index gives away overnight gains and is flat, while Bitcoin briefly jumps above $80,000, amid growing concerns that Washington will tolerate high inflation and expanding fiscal deficits. Consumer confidence data is on tap later this morning. The Treasury auctions $69 billion in two-year notes at 1 p.m. ET. The 30-year yield falls to 5.198% from an overnight high of 5.246%, the 10-year slips to 4.668% from 4.710% and the two-year drops to 4.240% from 4.255%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0853 ET - Oil futures lose more ground with the market seeing stepped-up U.S. economic pressure on Iran more likely to lead to negotiations than military escalation. "Some signs of diplomacy out here in what is a long market and likely making it worse as Pakistan is delivering a peace offer to Iran and the U.S. is returning staff to their posts in the Middle East," Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. "The near term looks like the U.S. Treasury has bought some time for the oil market in terms of generating enough fear to end the buying for now from speculators." The New York Times reported that the U.S. is preparing to return diplomats to their posts in the Middle East. WTI is off 3.1% at $82.42 a barrel, and Brent is down 3% at $89.40 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0203 ET - Seatrium's order wins could hit 6.0 billion Singapore dollars in 2026, say CGS International's Meghana Kande and Lim Siew Khee, raising their estimate from S$4.3 billion.The Singapore offshore and marine company's letter of intent with Golar LNG for a third floating liquefied natural gas conversion project, alongside the potential for further gas-related orders, should support this target, they say in a note. The analysts raise their 2026-2028 earnings per share estimates by 1.0%-8.0% to reflect potentially higher order wins, lower expenses and reduced interest costs. CGSI raises its target price to S$2.60 from S$2.52 and maintains an add rating. Shares gain 2.4% to S$2.14. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0202 ET - European oil companies continue to benefit from Strait of Hormuz disruption and refining margins at near record highs. Attacks on Russian refineries continue to put pressure on the international refining system, which is already operating at high utilization levels to offset Middle East disruption, Jefferies analysts say. The U.S. bank raises net income estimates for the companies by 5% after strong second-quarter results and higher Brent crude assumptions. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
2048 ET - Woodside Energy's 1H result may have been well signaled in advance, but it still created several questions for Jarden. Woodside reported an underlying profit of US$1.33 billion, beating Jarden's estimate by 1%. Analyst Nik Burns expects the focus to be on Woodside's business review. Woodside plans to strip out US$350 million of costs, leading Jarden to seek detail on the composition of that program. Woodside also will carry out a strategic review of its Beaumont New Ammonia project in Texas. Jarden ponders whether this implies the likely sale and exit from the asset. It had an overweight call and A$32.20 price target on Woodside ahead of the result. Woodside is up 2.4% to A$34.29. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2037 ET - Viva Energy's refinery operation is being supported by the Middle East conflict, but the company isn't doing as well as rival Ampol in capturing the tailwind to margins. Viva Energy said its refining margin was US$20.70 per barrel in July. That was below the US$27.11 per barrel reported by Ampol yesterday for the same month. Jefferies analyst Michael Simotas attributes the difference to the fire at Viva Energy's Geelong refinery in April, which curbed some production. Jefferies also says Viva Energy needs to articulate the earnings base of its Convenience Retail business. "We believe Ampol is a better way to play the sector," it says. Viva Energy is down 3.0% at A$2.765. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)Oil edges higher as traders assess the U.S.' new measures against Iran. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. is launching a new campaign to isolate Iran. Bessent said the U.S. was sanctioning more than 60 entities, individuals and vessels across the world. "China is the key," Rystad Energy's Jorge Leon says in an email. "Iranian crude exports have already fallen sharply because of the blockade, and Beijing is essentially the only significant buyer left," the senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis says. "Unless China materially reduces purchases further, the additional impact on Iranian oil revenues could be relatively limited," Leon adds. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.2% higher at $85.20 per barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1719 ET - Increased scrutiny of artificial-intelligence data centers by state governments creates opportunities for electricity utilities that can overcome political hurdles and independent power producers that can build projects, according to industry analysts at Siebert Williams Shank. "Greater political scrutiny may reduce realized [AI-driven power demand], delay timing and raise execution risk, but data centers that survive may place greater value on electricity physically deliverable at their location," the financial-services firm's analysts say in a report. This will reward power producers that can move beyond their traditional operator role and become developers of bespoke projects, the analysts say. "For utilities, the opportunity remains substantial, but the risk-sharing model is changing," they add. "Rising political concerns around the socialization of AI specific infrastructure and risks increase the need for cost allocation frameworks." (luis.garcia@wsj.com; @lhvgarcia)
1531 ET - Oil futures lose ground after six straight sessions of gains as the U.S. launched a plan to sanction countries or companies that do business with Iran. "The immediate measures look less dramatic than the rhetoric," Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy's head of geopolitical analysis, says in a note. Iranian oil exports are already down with the U.S. blockade and unless China reduces purchases further, the additional impact on Iranian oil revenues could be limited. "The biggest oil-market risk may not be the sanctions themselves, but Iran's response to them," he says. "Iran still has considerable capacity to disrupt everybody else's exports." WTI settles down 2.4% at $85.01 a barrel and Brent falls 2.4% to $92.17. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1357 ET - Oil futures extend losses as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announces the plan to isolate Iran with sanctions against anyone doing business with the country. Although the sanctions are broader-reaching, much of the attention will be on the implications for Iran's oil exports, David Oxley of Capital Economics says in a note. Depending on whether the sanctions accelerate or delay a resolution to the conflict, they could still have a sizeable impact on the energy landscape, he says. "In practice, though, we suspect that the new package will have only a limited direct impact on Iranian energy flows in the short term" as most oil exports go to China which has not recognized U.S. sanctions in the past, Oxley adds. WTI is down 2.6% at $84.80 a barrel and Brent is down 2.5% at $92.99.