Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
3 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1430 ET - Treasury yields and the dollar rise despite a drop in oil prices accentuated by the U.S. plan to use economic sanctions against Iran. Rising oil prices had been behind a bonds selloff that pushed yields, particularly in the long end, to highs not seen since the financial crisis. But since the Treasury announced plans to buy back more long-dated securities last week, demand for bonds increased somewhat, keeping yields below recent highs. Sticky inflation and rising government debt keep bond investors on their toes, preventing a steeper fall. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.2%. The 10-year is at 4.70%, up from an intraday low of 4.68%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1415 ET - Celestica's riding a wave of booming demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, which should support a new phase of growth for the hardware design and electronics manufacturing services company. In a report, UBS analysts upgrade the stock to buy from neutral and raise the price target to $430 from $410. They say that Celestica will benefit from strong AI-drive demand for high-speed Ethernet switching and specialized AI computing equipment. What's more, the company is supplying a 1.6 Terabit rack-scale solution for ChatGPT developer OpenAI. These factors should speed up Celestica's "revenue growth and, more importantly, EPS growth" in 2027. UBS In the longer term, the analysts project that compounded annual growth rate for revenue will be around 39% through 2029 "with upside potential." (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1357 ET - Oil futures extend losses as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announces the plan to isolate Iran with sanctions against anyone doing business with the country. Although the sanctions are broader-reaching, much of the attention will be on the implications for Iran's oil exports, David Oxley of Capital Economics says in a note. Depending on whether the sanctions accelerate or delay a resolution to the conflict, they could still have a sizeable impact on the energy landscape, he says. "In practice, though, we suspect that the new package will have only a limited direct impact on Iranian energy flows in the short term" as most oil exports go to China which has not recognized U.S. sanctions in the past, Oxley adds. WTI is down 2.6% at $84.80 a barrel and Brent is down 2.5% at $92.99. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1346 ET - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the department is launching an "economic onslaught" against Iran's global financial connections. Beginning today, actions by the Treasury and other agencies will "tighten the noose" and block every potential source of revenue funding the IRGC, enforcing a "zero leakage" approach. Bessent said new sectoral sanctions target five of Iran's most vital lifelines in other countries: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. "I want to emphasize that we are spreading out across the world as we speak...you will see a wave of sanctions when you leave this meeting today, and you should expect that cadence to continue," Bessent said. Markets showed muted initial reaction to the press conference. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1024 ET - Heavyweight industrial and export-focused Canadian names are bearing the brunt of a sell-off as markets digest U.S. cross-border supply chain disruption. Among the biggest decliners are manufacturing and auto-parts stocks like Magna International, Linamar and also transformers and electrical equipment manufacturer Hammond Power Solutions, all of which face immediate headwinds under the non-CUSMA content penalties. Aerospace, materials and tech growth plays are also pulling back, including business-jet maker Bombardier, BlackBerry, specialty semiconductor producer 5N Plus and satellite maker MDA Space. Toronto indexes, however, remain flat as gains in mining, metals and financials offset the pressure. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1018 ET - European natural-gas prices climb 4% to their highest level in more than three years as traders grow increasingly concerned about supply ahead of winter. Asian demand continues to strengthen, adding to the challenge of replenishing European storage as buyers in the region attract LNG cargoes away from Europe. Storage levels currently stand at just 62%, leaving the region increasingly dependent on a mild winter to curb heating demand. In afternoon trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 4.2% at 68.61 euros a megawatt-hour. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0958 ET - Another rise in the U.K. energy price cap would more than offset Prime Minister Andy Burnham's move to cut tax on electricity bills, Thomas Pugh at RSM UK says in a note. Ofgem, the country's energy regulator, is expected to increase the price cap in October. This is likely to have a limited impact on headline inflation. "Ofgem's price cap is based on typical use for dual-fuel households, but some households will only use electricity, where prices will probably fall," Pugh says. But risks of higher energy inflation remain going into 2027. European gas storage is at a 10-year low, which could lift wholesale prices, Pugh says. "That would push household bills much higher in January, keeping inflation sticky in 2027." (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0946 ET - The Japanese yen has ample room to weaken against the dollar unless the U.S. fundamental backdrop changes materially, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. Ongoing Middle East tensions and the resulting rise in energy prices should keep expectations for the Federal Reserve's final--or terminal--interest rate elevated while also worsening Japan's terms of trade, they say. "Our dollar-yen fair-value model--based on U.S. terminal-rate pricing, global risk sentiment, and Japan's terms of trade--still points to around 167.00." The dollar rises 0.1% to 159.10 yen, having reached a 40-year high of 163.98 last month, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0931 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher in early trading with at least two weeks more of extremely hot weather, particularly across the southern U.S., expected to drive power-sector demand. "Overall, weather patterns are viewed as bullish the front 10 days, but then closer to seasonal for the 11-15 day period," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. "We expect a volatile week in the natural gas markets and partly due to approaching expiration of Sep'26 options and futures," the forecaster adds. Nymex natural gas is up 1.7% at $2.821/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0919 ET - The second quarter was a strong stretch for Canadian companies, driven in large part by higher energy prices amid global political tensions and supply disruptions. Statistics Canada data show operating profit recorded by Canadian corporations hit about C$228.2 billion in 2Q, up 9.7% on the prior quarter and 15% above the same period last year. Non-financial corporations led the charge, driven by the oil and gas industry which notched a 68.3% jump in operating profit. Petroleum and coal manufacturers saw a 121% surge in profit to the highest since 1Q 2020, and pipeline transportation corporations saw a 30.6% increase. Profit growth across manufacturers was up 30.6% to C$28.2 billion, or a softer 3.7% excluding petroleum and coal. For financial industries, operating profit was up 5% to C$101.6 billion. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0902 ET - Crude futures are lower following six straight session of gains with the market looking to Scott Bessent's afternoon press conference where the Treasury Secretary plans to give details of increased U.S. economic sanctions against Iran. The measures "could inflict significant economic pain on Iran, potentially moving the needle toward renewed and more serious talks with the U.S.," Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. WTI is down 1.7% at $85.58 a barrel and Brent is 1.3% lower at $93.14 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)'"The dollar's reaction is likely to depend on the scope and severity of the sanctions," Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note.' "Dollar Rises Slightly as U.S.-Iran Conflict Continues -- Market Talk," at 0654 GMT, misspelled the analyst's name.

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