Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
3 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1553 ET - A decline in slaughter is helping hog markets stabilize, and while slaughter will likely gradually recover, it's expected to remain below year-ago levels in 2H 2026, analysts at Rabobank say in a report. Pork demand remains below a year-ago on consumer weakness and competitive export markets, they say. "While lower pork production should help balance markets and support cutout values, pork prices in 2H 2026 may continue to lag the recovery in hog prices as export markets remain competitive," Rabobank adds. Lean hogs edge up 0.3% on CME to 81.125 cents a pound. Live cattle fall 2% to $2.136 a pound. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1532 ET - U.S. natural gas futures inch up with a few more weeks of hot weather-driven demand expected to support power-sector use. "Heat remains supportive across most of the South, but its concentration in less population-dense regions limits the national demand impact," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. "LNG exports should provide additional demand as fall approaches, but rising supply may absorb a meaningful portion of that increase." Nymex natural gas settles up 0.3% at $2.782/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1531 ET - Oil futures lose ground after six straight sessions of gains as the U.S. launched a plan to sanction countries or companies that do business with Iran. "The immediate measures look less dramatic than the rhetoric," Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy's head of geopolitical analysis, says in a note. Iranian oil exports are already down with the U.S. blockade and unless China reduces purchases further, the additional impact on Iranian oil revenues could be limited. "The biggest oil-market risk may not be the sanctions themselves, but Iran's response to them," he says. "Iran still has considerable capacity to disrupt everybody else's exports." WTI settles down 2.4% at $85.01 a barrel and Brent falls 2.4% to $92.17. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1357 ET - Oil futures extend losses as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announces the plan to isolate Iran with sanctions against anyone doing business with the country. Although the sanctions are broader-reaching, much of the attention will be on the implications for Iran's oil exports, David Oxley of Capital Economics says in a note. Depending on whether the sanctions accelerate or delay a resolution to the conflict, they could still have a sizeable impact on the energy landscape, he says. "In practice, though, we suspect that the new package will have only a limited direct impact on Iranian energy flows in the short term" as most oil exports go to China which has not recognized U.S. sanctions in the past, Oxley adds. WTI is down 2.6% at $84.80 a barrel and Brent is down 2.5% at $92.99. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1332 ET - Wheat futures are gaining on the back of higher corn values, as well as continuing conflict between Russia and Ukraine affecting Black Sea exports. "The market is overbought after recent gains, but is within the range that we've traded for the past several weeks," Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives says in a note. Prices are likely to remain in range waiting for the next headline to hit, he says. "If tensions were to de-escalate between Russia and Ukraine, it would be bearish, while if corn can continue higher, wheat will likely feel some spillover buying." CBOT wheat is up 0.4%. Corn gains 1.9% and soybeans are off 1.2%.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1159 ET - Endeavour Silver can now resume its operations at its Terronera project in Mexico after a peaceful blockade led by community members of the Ejido community was lifted. Community members were demanding proper road maintenance, assistance with medical services and communications, as well as control and access to water supply and increased financial assistance. A spokesperson for the company says "the situation was resolved through direct dialogue, without government or military involvement, as communications with the Ejido remained open and cordial throughout." The spokesperson added that "the discussions focused on matters covered under our existing agreements, as well as additional items, all of which have now been negotiated and are being finalized." Shares are up 1.4% to C$14.82. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1116 ET - Live cattle futures resume some of the selling pressure that followed President Trump's announcement Friday that the U.S. would allow imports of 300,000 metric tons of beef with no out of quota tariffs in a bid to bring down consumer prices. The USDA on Friday reported 11.1 million cattle and calves on feed for slaughter as of Aug. 1, up 2% from a year earlier, while placements on feedlots in July were down 11% on the year at 1.42 million head. July marketings of fed cattle fell 7% to 1.62 million head. Live cattle on CME are down 1.4%. Lean hogs edge up 0.1%. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1030 ET - The Pro Farmer crop tour results, bullish for corn futures, aren't helping soybeans. Pro Farmer pegs the 2026 soybean crop at 53.3 bushels per acre versus the USDA's 52.7 bpa. "Recent weather should help back up those predictions as the month of August has been pretty good for soybean production," Cory Bratland of AgMarket.net says in a note. He expects to see support around $12 for November futures. "We still have a very strong demand outlook for U.S. soybeans, and we are still dealing with the Super El Niño that could have an impact on South American crops." CBOT soybeans are off 1.4% at $12.21 3/4 a bushel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1007 ET - Corn futures are rising as the market digests results of the Pro Farmer crop tour where weather-related problems with crops led to lower yield expectations. The expected national corn yield of 173.2 bushels per acre compares with the USDA's most-recent 180.7 bpa. "It's important to keep these numbers in context," Arlan Suderman of StoneX says in a note. The estimate is almost always below the USDA's August estimate, he says, and while the USDA estimates could continue to move lower, "it's difficult to see them make a cut this aggressive." CBOT corn for December is up 1.2% at $5.14 3/4 a bushel. Wheat is up 0.8% and soybeans are off 0.7%.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0931 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher in early trading with at least two weeks more of extremely hot weather, particularly across the southern U.S., expected to drive power-sector demand. "Overall, weather patterns are viewed as bullish the front 10 days, but then closer to seasonal for the 11-15 day period," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. "We expect a volatile week in the natural gas markets and partly due to approaching expiration of Sep'26 options and futures," the forecaster adds. Nymex natural gas is up 1.7% at $2.821/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0902 ET - Crude futures are lower following six straight session of gains with the market looking to Scott Bessent's afternoon press conference where the Treasury Secretary plans to give details of increased U.S. economic sanctions against Iran. The measures "could inflict significant economic pain on Iran, potentially moving the needle toward renewed and more serious talks with the U.S.," Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. WTI is down 1.7% at $85.58 a barrel and Brent is 1.3% lower at $93.14 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0659 ET - For Canadian wood products companies, exposure to the new U.S. tariffs should be minimal and manageable, says RBC's Matthew McKellar. In a report, the analyst says that the trade friction primarily hits niche value-added products like engineered wood, paperboard and corrugated boxes. For those, operational flexibilities and shifting where products are produced give Canadian producers a buffer against the worst drag on earnings. Meanwhile, major commodities such as lumber and oriented strand board are completely exempt from the new tariffs, McKellar notes. Still, he says that the tariff environment remains dynamic and there is "significant uncertainty around potential further action by either the U.S. or Canada."

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