The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1533 ET - Oil futures end the week higher with no progress made toward resolving the U.S.-Iran conflict, and the U.S. planning to tighten the economic squeeze on Iran rather than renew major military action. While geopolitics remain the main driver of oil prices, "the continuation of tensions alone is no longer creating the same price shock as before," Linh Tran of XS.com says in a note. "The market may now need a more significant escalation to materially change expectations for Middle East supply." WTI settles up 0.3% at $87.06for a 6.9% weekly gain. Brent rises 0.7% to $94.39 a barrel, up 6.6% on the week. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1531 ET - U.S. natural gas futures settle higher, rising for a second week in a row thanks to hot summer weather driving electricity-sector use to meet air conditioning demand. Gains have been modest in up-and-down trade, as strong production and an inventory surplus limit rally attempts and the market looks increasingly beyond August to cooler shoulder-season weather. "Currently most traders feel inventories remain ample entering the fall shoulder season, and the latest buying looks to be mostly short-covering," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Nymex natural gas settles at $2.773/mmBtu, up 1.5% on the week.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1355 ET - The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by three this week to 452, and was up by 41 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reports. The EIA sees crude production rising to 14.2 million barrels a day in 2027 from 13.8 million b/d this year. With proved reserves below 10 years of production, U.S. production could be approaching a peak, Amapreet Singh of Barclays says in a note. "The decline in proved reserves to production ratio below the 10-year level has historically been a strong leading indicator for an inflection point in well-head production," he says, citing previous cases in Mexico, Nigeria, Angola and others. "Barring a step change in development technology, we believe U.S. crude oil production could peak in the coming years." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1249 ET - The Trump administration's efforts to cap bond yields is fueling the rally in gold and bitcoin, which capitalized on the situation, BankPro's CEO Paolo Broccardo says in a note. "The use of non-market methods by the authorities is fueling demand for alternative assets outside the traditional financial system." The Treasury Department's announcement that it will raise the amount of longer-term bond purchases, meanwhile, overshadowed the publication of the FOMC minutes, he adds. "Investors ignored the fact that the number of 'hawks' on the committee is growing, which could lead to higher interest rates." New York gold futures are up 2.1% at $4,667.60 an ounce. Bitcoin gains 6.5% and trades around $77,391. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1125 ET - The premiminary reading that Canadian retail sales declined 0.8% on-month in July would mark the first decline this year and highlights the risks consumer face in keeping up momentum amid trade- and war-driven uncertainty, Bank of Montreal's Shelly Kaushik says. The economist says consumers showed in June, pushing sales up 0.6% for the month, 0.2 percentage point better than Statistics Canada's prior flash estimate. Sales volumes rose 1.5%, the most in over a year. Kaushik says this has monthly GDP tracking better than the initial estimate of 0.2% growth for June, given firmness in manufacturing and wholesale volumes that month. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1113 ET - The further rise in U.K. PMIs and consumer confidence at its highest level in two years suggests households and businesses have taken the Iran war and government change of administration remarkably well, RSM U.K.'s Thomas Pugh says. "If we're not careful, we might have to stop talking about resilience and actually start talking about a reasonable economic performance this year," he says in a note. The second half looks more challenging, with oil prices rising again and inflation set to climb to 3.5%. The government's budget announcement has the potential to make or break the final quarter, Pugh says. "A repeat of the confidence-sapping speculation about tax rises will cause growth to slow sharply. However, the economy is clearly holding up so far this year." (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

1001 ET - Natural gas futures start the day higher with help from hotter near-term weather forecasts, while gains remain limited by comfortable storage levels. "The next 15 days are back to being solidly bullish as daily national CDDs [cooling degree days] are hotter/above normal each day," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. The market had shrugged off yesterday's small weekly storage injection as inventories remain well above average. "Next week's EIA report is also expected to print another smaller-than-normal build due to hot temperatures this past week and aided by lighter wind energy generation," NatGasWeather.com says. Nymex natural gas is up 1.6% at $2.777/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0924 ET - Business sentiment in the eurozone has stabilized at moderate growth, with services flat in August but manufacturing rising to its highest in four years, Commerzbank's Vincent Stamer says in a note. The composite flash PMI increased marginally to 52.1 from 52.0 in July, above consensus. "Apparently, the uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the resulting rise in energy prices are currently weighing significantly less on businesses in the eurozone than they did in the spring," Stamer says. The PMI remains in a range where the economy has historically experienced moderate growth. The manufacturing pickup was likely due to public investment in Germany, where manufacturing sentiment rose to a multiyear high, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0922 ET - U.K. macro data published Friday hints at resilience in consumer demand to stronger headwinds in the third quarter of the year, Investec's Sandra Horsfield says in a note. Perhaps most significant is there was only a moderate 0.5% drop in retail sales after two months of firm gains, she says. Consumer confidence unexpectedly improved in August, with the gauge of propensity to make major purchases reaching its highest since December 2021. All subcomponents of the confidence index are now higher than prior to the outbreak of the Iran war, despite little visibility on a resolution, Horsfield says. But with consumers still facing rising energy prices, third-quarter GDP growth will likely prove weaker than in the first half, she says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0920 ET - Crude oil futures are little changed in early U.S. trading and on track for weekly gains amid market expectations of an extended standoff in the Persian Gulf between the U.S. and Iran. Yesterday's stronger-than-expected WTI September expiration "now provides an easy upside target to the October contract," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. The continued virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz and stalled diplomatic efforts to reopen it support the bullish view, the firm says. "Iran remains dug in while the U.S. has shifted strategy from a bombing campaign to economic isolation that may or may not spur concessions from Iran." WTI is off 0.1% at $86.76 a barrel and Brent is 0.1% higher at $93.87. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0905 ET - BJ's Wholesale Club is winning over customers at the gas pump, as prices remain elevated across the country. The warehouse club chain says comp gallons were up double digits during the latest quarter, marking an acceleration from 1Q and serving as "a clear signal of the share we continue to take," CEO Bob Eddy says on a call with analysts. "Gas prices are about as visible as it gets for consumers," he says. "There's a price on every street corner, and our members know that we offer great value." Eddy says that strong volume growth, coupled with a favorable pullback from peak gas prices, drove fuel profit dollars ahead of expectations and meaningfully contributed to the company's overall results. Shares climb 1.5% premarket. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

0854 ET - Treasurys trade sideways as investors grapple with a more hands-on approach to bond markets by the Trump administration. Many economists are skeptical that increasing buybacks of long-term debt will sustainably keep yields down, without attacking fiscal deficits. Meanwhile, crude oil prices keep ticking higher, sparking inflation fears. Gold rises 1% and bitcoin rallies 6%. U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to edge higher, according to WSJ consensus. The 30-year yield is at 5.246%, slightly up from yesterday's settle of 5.237%. The 10-year is little changed at 4.698% and so is the two-year at 4.187%.