Long-term bond yields rose to a 19-year high this week. The stock market's response? Bring it on.
Well, maybe not exactly-stocks are on track to finish lower, after all-but the equity resilience in the face of higher rates really is notable. Even as the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.31%, the highest level since 2007, the S&P 500 index slipped just 1.33%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite fell 1.03% and 1.9%, respectively. The S&P is less than 2% off the all-time high it made on Aug. 13.
Part of the market's less-than-panicked response may have to do with the orderly selloff in Treasuries, with yields rising gradually all year. As my colleague Josh Schafer points out, bond volatility has remained subdued, and stocks don't typically freak out until bond moves get more violent. But there's no getting around the fact that the 30-year yield has climbed from 4.7% in March to over 5.2% today. Given that the S&P 500's dividend yield is only a bit above 1%, that should create some fierce competition for investor assets. Why take on all the risk of holding equities when you can get 5.2% "risk-free"?
Well, maybe it depends how you define risk-free. "When people say bonds are low-risk, it makes me want to cry," says John Montgomery, founder of Bridgeway Capital Management.
The U.S. national debt crossed above $40 trillion this week, and Montgomery says that given the lack of political will to raise taxes or bring down spending, the path forward is clear. "The only way we've ever paid off this kind of debt is to inflate our way out," he says. "I think it's going to be a long time until we see low-single-digit inflation numbers again."
Inflation isn't great for equity investors, either, but at least companies can charge more for their products. Investors who hold a 30-year bond to maturity are all but assured of being repaid, but the question is how much the dollars they get in the 2050s will be worth. (One doesn't need to hold a bond to maturity to be punished by inflation, of course; when investors fear inflation will rise, they demand more yield for locking up their money, pushing down prices.) "If you have a couple years of double-digit inflation, no different from what we've experienced in this country in the past, it decimates a bond portfolio," Montgomery says.
The fear he articulates seems to be spreading beyond the bond market. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of other currencies, fell to a three-month low. Gold just notched its fifth straight weekly gain. Within the stock market, too, the yield rise is starting to bite. The rate-sensitive utilities sector dropped 2.8%. Banks, whose businesses benefit from loan demand and high long-term yields, gave up recent gains, with the State Street SPDR S&P Bank exchange-traded fund falling 4.3% on the week.
But on the whole, equities have held their ground. What makes this even more impressive is that semiconductor stocks, which are still seen as the most obvious winner from the artificial-intelligence buildout, actually tanked, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF falling 6%-though this may have had a bit more to do with Moderna's positive trial results around an mRNA-based drug that's being hailed as a "cancer vaccine."
Come again? Well, the key is to remember that Moderna, which rose a mere 140% this week on the news, has been a heavily shorted stock. And semis have been hedge fund darlings. As Moderna skyrocketed, hedge fund managers may have been forced to sell off their semis in order to maintain risk limits, in what Dan O'Regan, Mizuho's managing director of equity trading, describes as "a classic factor unwind where popular AI, infrastructure, and momentum longs are being used as sources of funds to cover short-side pain."
Just in case anyone forgot that trading mechanics aren't all that drive the market, retail earnings arrived to remind us about the importance of fundamentals, even if they didn't provide any easy answers. Walmart reported its smallest U.S. same-store sales increase since 2020 and forecast lower future revenue than analysts had hoped, causing shares to sink 11% on the week. But the good news is that investors didn't use the results as a crowbar to pry apart the longstanding "U.S. consumer resilience" story, especially with Home Depot and Target providing alternative perspectives. That's good news for the market-the AI narrative can ebb and flow, but if people start to question the health of the U.S. consumer, look out below.
For now, this is a market that's itching to get back to all-time highs. Perhaps good news this coming week-in the form of strong Nvidia earnings and a dovish Jackson Hole speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh-will serve as the back-scratcher it needs.