Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1010 ET - A tariff deal between the US and Canada would represent another step toward eventual interest-rate increases from the Bank of Canada, says economist Derek Holt of Bank of Nova Scotia. Holt is among of the few economists predicting rate increases prior to year end. He says his call is partly based on the expectation of a US-Canada trade deal prior to the midterms. "The odds of this happening went up," Holt says, citing President Trump and PM Mark Carney statements on significant progress to date to avoid implementation of a new 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods. A deal, contingent on its details, "would buoy market and business sentiment toward Canada," he adds. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)

1001 ET - Gold prices climb 2% amid a weaker U.S. dollar and falling U.S. government bond yields after the Treasury said it would at least double the amount of bonds it buys back. In early U.S. trade, New York gold futures are up 2.1% to $4,516.10 a troy ounce. Markets now await the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting for more cues on the interest-rate outlook. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0701 ET - Bitcoin and ether could continue to trade in a narrow range due to uncertainty over U.S. cryptocurrency regulation, Mesta founder Sandeep Pyapali says in a note. The White House is expected to host a meeting Wednesday with cryptocurrency executives including from Ripple and Coinbase to discuss regulation. The meeting comes as the Clarity Act, which establishes a regulatory framework for digital assets, has been stuck in the Senate since June with a procedural vote delayed until September 15. "Until the regulatory fog clears, bitcoin and ether could remain range-bound, even if the macro data improves," Pyapali says. Bitcoin falls 0.3% to $64,344, according to LSEG. Ether rises 0.3% to $1,918. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0404 ET - The Canadian dollar rises modestly after President Trump said he would pause a 50% tariff on certain goods from Canada for three days while the two countries try to finalize a deal. The Canadian dollar has reacted with some relief but the move is fairly muted as markets participants are presumably uncertain whether a deal will go ahead and what form it would take, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. Even if an agreement is reached, the focus will be on how robust it is, he says. "For the Canadian dollar to recover more strongly, the new agreement must not be called into question again after just a few weeks." The U.S. dollar falls 0.2% to 1.3874 Canadian dollars. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1147 ET - Oil futures extend gains after President Trump says there are no talks occurring or scheduled with Iran, and that the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating. "There's no talks happening and that's all that the market heard," says NinjaTrader Group senior economist Tracy Shuchart. While workarounds have helped keep oil prices from soaring, the stress is showing up in products with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries adding to the problem, she adds. Crude market volatility has eased, but "I think we're higher-for-longer oil and seem to be rotating Brent around $90 and WTI around $85, which is still $20 to $25 higher than last year," Shuchart adds. WTI is up 1.2% at $85.49 a barrel and Brent is 0.9% higher at $91.71. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1117 ET - Amer Sports received a nice tailwind to profit thanks to a one-time net tariff refund. The quarter's gross margin increased 710 basis points to 65.8%, "primarily driven by a one time net tariff refund benefit of $64.3 million or 390 basis points," CFO Andrew Page says in an earnings call. This gave EPS an 8 cent boost. Excluding the tariff windfall, underlying gross margin still expanded by over 300 basis points, "driven by favorable pricing product channel and region mix." The refund, from Section 301 submissions, directly enabled management to raise full-year gross margin guidance to 60.5%-61%. For the remainder of 2026, Amer Sports assumes existing Section 301 tariff rates will stay in place, with further refund impacts expected to be negligible.