U.K.'s Jobless Rate Holds Steady as Labor Market Shows Signs of Softening

Dow Jones
Aug 18
 
 

Unemployment in the U.K. was unchanged in the three months through June, while wage growth edged up slightly, likely not moving the dial for Bank of England policymakers who are expected to leave interest rates on hold next month.

The unemployment rate was 4.9%, the same as in the three months through May, according to data released Tuesday by the Office for National Statistics. A consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a rate of 4.8%.

Annual wage growth, excluding bonuses, was 3.5% in the second quarter, up from 3.4% in March-May, the data showed.

"The labor market picture is little changed overall, with some softening still evident," ONS Director of Economic Statistics Liz McKeown said.

Estimates for the May-July period show vacancies fell slightly to 707,000, which, outside of the pandemic period, were last lower in the three months through November 2014, the ONS said.

"The latest decrease was driven mainly by smaller businesses, which cite labor and operating costs as reasons for not hiring new staff or replacing leavers," McKeown added.

The result comes ahead of inflation data due to be published Wednesday, which is expected to show a pickup. Most investors expect the BOE to hold rates when it meets in September.

A softer labor market tends to reflect weakening bargaining power for workers, allowing employers to constrain salary rises, making inflation across the whole economy less likely to accelerate.

"A stabilizing labor market and contained wage pressures support a cautious approach from the Bank of England," said Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG U.K.

 
 

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