The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0226 GMT - Australian consumer confidence is looking more upbeat despite the headwinds still putting a dent in household budgets. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index rose 6% to 88.9 in August. That followed earlier news from the ANZ and pollster Roy Morgan that confidence is back at its highest level since early March. The risks remain numerous. The war in the Middle East could deteriorate again, while the Reserve Bank of Australia hasn't ruled out raising interest rates further. The job market is also showing signs of weakening. Still, consumers appear to be shrugging off the headwinds for now. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0210 GMT - The Japanese government bond yield curve steepens in Tokyo's morning session amid concerns about higher inflation in Japan stemming from rising crude oil prices. Worries also persist over how the Japanese government will finance its planned reduction in the food consumption tax to 1% from 8% for two years starting next April. "In a world where people are fretting about the size of government budget deficits [and] ongoing inflationary pressures, what we are seeing is sort of a nasty bear steepening of yield curves at the moment," says NAB chief economist Sally Auld in a podcast. This "tends not to be an overly positive dynamic," Auld adds. The two-year JGB yield is unchanged at 1.690%; the 30-year yield is 4 basis points higher at 4.115%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0205 GMT - Bitcoin falls in Asian trading, down 0.4% at $64,124,92. Prices remain range-bound despite a modest rebound over the past week, Glassnode Research analyst Chris Beamish says. Trading activity continues to slow, suggesting limited liquidity and a lack of sellers willing to make big bets on bitcoin, he says. Demand from institutional investors is also soft, with trading in bitcoin ETFs falling alongside net capital outflows, leaving regulated investors sitting on only small paper gains. Overall, bitcoin remains caught between continued short-term selling pressure and relatively resilient longer-term positioning, he adds. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0140 GMT - China's July economic activity data suggest monthly GDP growth is tracking at around 4.2% on year, a pace that is likely to raise more doubts over whether Beijing can meet its annual target of 4.5%-5%, says Larry Hu at Macquarie Group. "We expect Beijing to stick to the 'Just Enough' rule," the economist says, doing what's needed to reach the goal and no more. July's disappointing print suggests a ramp-up in fiscal support, which should help improve economic momentum. But domestic demand will likely stay soft if AI-led export strength persists. "China's economy is running in a two-speed mode, with consumption and property on the weak track and external demand on the strong track," Hu says. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0121 GMT - The South Korean won's recent strength against the dollar could weigh on gross domestic product and gross domestic income growth, Barclays's Bum Ki Son says. The won's strength could have reduced South Korea's 2Q GDP growth by 20 basis points and GDI growth by as much as 200 bps, the economist writes in a note. Korean non-tech companies, in particular, remain vulnerable to a stronger won, as the same dollar of overseas sales translates into fewer won, he says. Non-tech firms account for 26% of Kospi-listed companies' net income but could account for 66% of forex-translation losses in 3Q, he adds. The won has risen more than 5% against the dollar over the past one month, FactSet shows. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

0114 GMT - The Philippine peso may face some downward pressure versus the dollar from two headwinds, strategists at OCBC Group Research say in research report. First, Philippine central bank's "tone appears to have turned somewhat less hawkish as inflation shows early signs of easing and growth remains weak," the strategists say. Second, elevated oil prices are a "key vulnerability given the Philippines' dependence on imported energy and the potential pass-through to inflation and the trade balance," the strategists say. However, "broader USD has come under pressure as softer U.S. data prompted markets to pare Fed hike expectations, and this should provide some buffer for PHP," they add. The dollar is 0.1% higher at 61.550 pesos, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0051 GMT - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in early trade, but may be weighed down by rising crude oil prices that typically lead to higher inflation and hurt economic growth. This week began as a "risk-off" session, UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research team says, noting Wall Street's selloff on Monday that was driven by renewed Middle East tensions. Brent crude oil rose to settle near $91.00 per barrel overnight, which stoked fresh inflation worries, the team adds. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 159.49 yen and is flat at 33.03 baht, according to LSEG data. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0047 GMT - A2 Milk's first-time guidance for FY27 missed market expectations, and Forsyth Barr expects meaningful downgrades to consensus Ebitda forecasts. This comes despite A2 Milk typically being conservative with its guidance. "The weaker-than-anticipated outlook reflects a more challenging backdrop for infant formula growth," analyst Will Twiss says. A2 Milk experienced severe China label market share losses in 4Q as a result of limited supply. It also lost some momentum for English label infant milk formula following its product recall in the U.S. "Outside of China infant formula, the result was encouraging," Forsyth Barr says. It retains a neutral call on A2 Milk, and cuts its price target by 5.1% to 9.05 New Zealand dollars a share. A2 Milk is up 4.5% at NZ$8.11. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0033 GMT - JGBs fall in price terms in early Tokyo trade amid expectations for a faster pace of BOJ rate increases. "Market is pricing in just under an 80% probability of a BoJ rate hike in September, up from around 65% as of August 7," Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities' fixed income strategists say in recent note. "Rate hike expectations picked up following a series of media reports that boosted the prospects of an early tightening move," they say. "Market's attention has already shifted to the future pace of rate hikes, which is likely to help stoke investor concerns about an acceleration of tightening," the strategists add. The 10-year JGB yield rises 2.5 bps to 2.945%, its highest intraday level since September 1996. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0015 GMT - The Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.7% to 68732.71, tracking Wall Street's losses overnight. Investors appear to be fretting over the Middle East conflict and the apparent impasse in U.S.-Iran talks to end their conflict. "Iranian officials have been promising escalation if diplomacy fails," InTouch Capital Markets' analysts' team says in commentary, citing a media report. Among the worst performers on Japan's benchmark index, Screen Holdings drops 2.9%, Lasertec falls 2.8%, and Nippon Building Fund sheds 2.4%. The dollar is at 159.38 yen, compared with Y159.45 late Monday in New York. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2336 GMT - Japanese stocks may fall, tracking Wall Street's losses overnight. Investors appear to be fretting over the Middle East conflict and the apparent impasse in U.S.-Iran talks to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Nikkei futures are 210 points lower at 69040 on the SGX. The dollar is at 159.33 yen, compared with Y159.45 late Monday in New York. The Nikkei Stock Average closed 0.7% higher at 69220.25 on Monday. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2236 GMT - Walmart's membership program, a key component of its digital flywheel, looks poised for growth ahead, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. The analysts expect the program to scale to about 55 million members by 2035, more than doubling from roughly 21 million members this year. That should expand Walmart's commerce, marketplace and advertising opportunity, given Walmart+ members spend about four times more and make roughly seven times as many e-commerce visits as non-members, creating more purchase occasions, richer first-party data and an opportunity to capture share of consumers' wallets, the analysts say. Additionally, higher engagement improves fulfillment density, personalization, marketplace conversion, and advertising monetization, they say. "The result is a reinforcing loop: a stronger membership proposition drives frequency, greater frequency improves economics and relevance, and those benefits fund further investment in price, convenience, and the bundle," they say.