Second Half of August Tends to be Historically Strong for U.S. Treasurys
Dow Jones
Aug 17
0516 GMT - For U.S. Treasurys, Morgan Stanley is betting on a seven- to 30-year steepener and it also sees the historically stronger half of August still to come, its strategists say in a note. "Over the past 25 years, the U.S. Treasury index returned 0.64% in August in excess of T-bills, its best month, and the result clears the 95% significance threshold," they say. Since 2011, the August pattern has concentrated in the second half of the month. U.S. Treasury delivered negative second-half excess returns in only two of the past 14 years, they add.
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