The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1142 ET--Brazilian crop agency Conab published its latest forecasts, projecting Brazilian corn at 143 million metric tons. That's up from the previous year, while soybean production totaled 180 million tons, down slightly from last year. Versus USDA projections issued in its WASDE report Wednesday, Conab's corn forecast is roughly 3 million tons higher, while its soybean forecast is essentially the same. "Brazil's Conab delivered a noticeably more bearish corn update than soybean update Thursday," says Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull in a note. According to Wiesemeyer, improvements seen in the safrinha corn crop supported the higher corn figure, and the higher corn figure is likely pressuring CBOT futures Thursday. "The Brazilian government's own field-based estimate being nearly 3 MMT above USDA will be difficult for the market to ignore," says Wiesemeyer. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1117 ET - Investors are continuing to liquidate holdings in live cattle futures, according to AgResource in a note, "and a weaker outlook is offered for early trade today," says the firm. The USDA also reported lower export sales of beef versus the prior week, with 14,400 metric tons sold for the week ended Aug. 6. That's down 27% from the prior week, although up 10% from the prior 4-week average. Live cattle futures are down 0.9% to $2.217 a pound, while lean hogs are off 1.9% to 81.925 cents a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1110 ET - The ongoing El Niño climate system is getting stronger, with the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center assessing "a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27," in its latest update. An El Niño system generally means that the winter conditions will be warmer than normal--which may be beneficial for farmers that are proceeding to harvest their fields. If El Niño does end up being as strong as predicted, then it may be the most radical El Niño since at least 1950, says the Climate Prediction Center. CBOT grain futures are mixed, with corn down 1.1%, while soybeans inch up 0.1% and wheat climbs 1.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1106 ET - U.S. natural gas inventories increased more than usual last week, raising the surplus over the five-year average to 198 billion cubic feet from 195 Bcf the week before. Net injections into underground storage facilities were 36 Bcf, putting stocks at 3,153 Bcf, the EIA reports. The storage build was above the 33 Bcf five-year average for the week and bigger than the 30 Bcf expected in a WSJ survey of analysts. Nymex natural gas futures are down $2.2% at $2.742/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1057 ET - Canada's dairy farmers raise a stink over possible agricultural concessions the country's negotiators are prepared to make to the U.S. to secure tariff relief on key industrial sectors. "Our national food sovereignty is not up for negotiation," says David Wiens, head of the influential Dairy Farmers of Canada. "It is imperative that no more concessions on dairy" are made. The Trump administration is set next week to impose 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods in response to Canada's alleged mistreatment of US dairy products, automobiles and alcohol. Canadian officials say they are unwilling to upend the country's supply-management system, whereby government agencies set dairy prices, enforce production quotas, and limit dairy imports. Canadian and US negotiators are in talks in Washington, to avoid the imposition of new 50% duties. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1022 ET--Chili's Big Crispy platform and margarita of the month are giving the Brinker International fast-casual chain a red hot edge over its competitors, said UBS analysts in a research note. The analysts said Chili's has shown a sizable increase in the number of chicken sandwiches sold following the Big Crispy debut with positive feedback on size, price and value relative to fast food. They projected an increase in same-store sales and positive traffic over the fiscal year with Chili's planned menu upgrades, including a revamped kids and dessert menu, and social media marketing.(grace.yoon@wsj.com)

1016 ET - Curbs on diesel demand in some regions due to high prices probably won't be enough to rebalance the market given global supply shortages as the market enters the strongest seasonal demand period, Francisco Blanch of Bank of America Global Research says in a note. "Harvest-related demand growth, low inventories, and ongoing supply outages may outweigh early signs of demand destruction," the commodity strategist says. "Absent a meaningful supply recovery, the diesel market appears poised to stay tight, volatile, and expensive well into next year." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0950 ET - The USDA reports another flash sale of U.S. soybean exports to China, with 125,000 metric tons sold for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year. The latest weekly export sales report is dominated by Chinese buying of soybeans, with 1.51 million tons sold to China across 2025/26 and 2026/27. Most-active soybean futures on the CBOT are down 0.3%, with analysts saying that soybean futures have upside following yesterday's WASDE report. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0935 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower ahead of the EIA's weekly inventory report due at 10:30 a.m. ET. Analysts in a WSJ survey expect a 30 Bcf storage injection, slightly smaller than the 33 Bcf five-year average. That would trim the inventory surplus over the five-year average to 192 Bcf from 195 Bcf the previous week. "Without a bullish EIA print or continued warm weather, ebbing momentum could limit short-term upside," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Nymex natural gas is down 2.4% at $2.737/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0921 ET - Oil futures are lower after posting a string of gains, with the U.S. and Iran both claiming to have control over the Strait of Hormuz and still limited shipping through the waterway. The retreat is likely a technical correction, but could also be partly a delayed reaction to yesterday's EIA report of a 17.4 million barrel U.S. commercial crude inventory build, Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. Although the stock build was likely a one-off to be followed by draws in coming weeks, the big reduction in the deficit "cannot be dismissed," the firm adds. WTI is down 2.6% at $81.12 a barrel and Brent is down 2.3% at $86.97. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0657 ET - European gas markets are facing renewed supply pressures as geopolitical tensions and infrastructure disruptions push prices higher. The Netherlands-based TTF September contract trades just shy of 60 euros a megawatt-hour and is headed for a weekly gain of 6%. "European and Asian gas markets find themselves in the high-priced part of yet another hope-disillusionment cycle of Middle East negotiation attempts," says Jan-Eric Fahnrich from Rystad Energy. Uncertainty surrounding negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz is adding volatility, while storage levels lag behind last year, with EU facilities 59% full. However, Europe may attract additional U.S. LNG cargoes from October, alongside diverted shipments from Egypt, which could ease some supply concerns, according to Fahnrich. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0623 ET - Palm oil rises during Asian trading, supported by expectations of strong demand from major buyer India ahead of the festive season, Kenanga Futures says in a note. Higher tropical-oil inventories and uncertainty over U.S.-Iran peace negotiations may be capping further gains, it adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery rose 27 ringgit to 4,724 ringgit a ton.