The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2045 ET - Australia politics remains fascinating. Right-wing political party One Nation has surged into first place on primary vote, according to the latest Roy Morgan poll. Still, on a two-party preferred measure, Labor would retain government if an election were held today. One Nation's primary support is up 2 percentage points to 26%, ahead of the Labor, which is down 2.0 percentage points at 25.5%. The Liberal-National coalition's support is down 1.5 percentage points to 22%. Support for One Nation is at its highest level for a month and ahead of the Australian Labor Party for the first time since early July, it adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

2012 ET - The yen strengthens slightly against other G-10 and Asian currencies in early trade amid prospects of coordinated intervention by Japan and the U.S., analysts say. "Traders would be wise to keep a wary eye on the potential for fresh intervention in the yen," StoneX's Matt Simpson says in commentary. Traders are on "high alert for pockets of weak U.S. data, and U.S. CPI is no exception," the senior market analyst says, noting CPI data are due Wednesday. "With the MOF joining forces with the U.S. Treasury and vowing to intervene, even a slightly softer CPI report could bode well for USD/JPY bears," Simpson adds. U.S. dollar is 0.1% lower at 159.17 yen, euro is 0.1% lower at Y183.76, and Australian dollar is down 0.1% at Y112.29, FactSet data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1901 ET - U.K. retail sales rose slightly in July as England's progress to the latter stages of the FIFA World Cup boosted food and drink sales, a report shows. However, non-food sales were hit by lower footfall due to soaring temperatures, according to the report from the British Retail Consortium and KPMG. For the period from July 5 to Aug. 1, total retail sales in the U.K. increased 1.3% on year, the report says. "Consumer demand has struggled in the heat, leaving retailers facing a challenging start to the second half of the year," BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson says. Despite the modest rise in July, consumers' budgets remain stretched due to the challenging economic context, while retailers continue to grapple with higher costs, Dickinson adds. (andrea.figueras@wsj.com)

1859 ET - Australian stocks look set for an uncertain start to a session that will straddle the Reserve Bank's latest interest-rate decision. Local stock futures are down by less than 0.1% ahead of Tuesday's open, suggesting that the S&P/ASX 200 will barely move at the open. Many economists expect the RBA to hold the cash rate for a second straight meeting, but to talk up the potential to resume increases if inflation remains stubbornly high. Ahead of the open, industrial conglomerate SGH reported a 32% increase in annual profit and raised its dividend. Life360 raised its annual subscription revenue guidance. U.S. indices finished modestly lower as Iran refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1840 ET - The Reserve Bank of Australia's policy meeting outcome at 0430 GMT is likely to be a master class in covering all bases. Governor Michele Bullock appears likely to announce no change in the official cash rate, but at the same time warn that she still carries a big stick, and interest rates might rise in the future. The RBA will have welcomed recent evidence of cooling inflation, while also felt some alarm at the pace of housing price declines. Still, the battle to cool price pressures is not won, and the Middle East war could easily be the source of another supply shock. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1557 ET - Bond markets sour to rising oil prices as hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal over Hormuz fade, and Treasury yields rise. President Trump echoes Iran's demand for war reparations, making a resolution to the conflict seem less imminent. Crude rises 5%, stoking inflation fears and boosting odds of a September interest rate increase by the Fed. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.3% as the greenback strengthens 1% against the yen despite government efforts to prop up the Japanese currency. July existing home sales are expected to contract 2%, according to a WSJ consensus. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 0.040 percentage point, to 4.697%. The two-year adds 0.034 p.p., to 4.236%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1535 ET - U.S. natural gas futures rise as near-term weather forecasts add heat to the outlook, LNG feedgas rises and continuing conflict in the Middle East feeds global supply concerns. Natural gas balances are more supportive, "with elevated cooling demand and export flows nearly matching available supply despite production remaining historically strong," Gelber & Associates says in a note. "Cooling demand should still soften as temperatures retreat toward seasonal norms later in the month, but the warmer revision reduces some of the downside risk that had weighed on prices last week." Nymex natural gas settles up 5% at $2.794/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1455 ET - Oil futures post gains as Iran's latest demands on the U.S., including a military withdrawal, unfreezing of Iranian assets and payment of reparations, are seen prolonging the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. "This list of demands seems more like a child's wish list to Santa Claus than anything grounded in reality," Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group says in a note. While Iran tries to give the impression it's calling the shots, lower oil prices at the back of the curve suggest the market is unconvinced the strait will be a lasting problem, he adds. "The near-term risk is tight diesel and heating oil supplies heading into winter." WTI settles up 5.1% at $82.13 a barrel, and Brent rises 5% to $87.72. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1357 ET - Canada's two biggest provinces, Ontario and Quebec, would sustain the biggest economic blows from the Trump administration's planned 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods beginning Aug. 19, says Michael Davenport of Oxford Economics. Canadian officials are in talks with Washington about averting this new duty, which targets about $20 billion of Canadian goods ranging from cement, paper and wood products, and chemicals. Davenport says the new hefty duty would weigh on growth in Ontario and Quebec, given the concentration of targeted sectors in those two central Canadian provinces. Also taking a relatively big hit is New Brunswick, which is represented in parliament by Dominic LeBlanc, the minister in charge of US-Canada trade. All three of those provinces have imposed bans on US alcohol sales. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1349 ET - Treasury yields and the dollar keep rising as markets see nearly equal chances of a Fed hike or hold in September. The dollar strengthens nearly 1% against the yen, despite officials' efforts to prop up the Japanese currency. The lasting U.S.-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz pushes Brent crude up 4% to $87, rekindling inflation fears that could bolster the case for an interest rate increase. The 10-year yield reaches 4.701% and the two-year is at 4.239%. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.2%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1319 ET - Businesses are likely to continue pulling forward their spending on servers and storage arrays for at least a couple of years, Morgan Stanley analysts write in a note upgrading HPE, formerly known as Hewlett Packard Enterprise, to overweight. While accelerated enterprise spending won't last forever, and investors should be cautious as estimate revisions hit their peaks, Morgan Stanley's checks, surveys and analysis indicate "an infrastructure cycle that is proving both stronger and more durable than we previously anticipated," the analysts write. "While execution remains the key risk, we believe HPE now offers the best combination of earnings upside, valuation support and re-rating potential within our enterprise infrastructure OEM group." Shares gain 3.7% to extend this year's gain to 130%. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)

1310 ET - Bitcoin accounted for just under 43% of the total volume traded in the cryptocurrency market in the month of July, says Cex.io in a note. That's the largest share bitcoin has taken of cryptocurrency volumes since early 2023, says the firm. "Historically, bitcoin's trading dominance tends to rise during the later stages of bear markets as investors rotate from altcoins into the relative safety of BTC," says Cex.io. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is at $2.19 trillion as of today, according to data from CoinMarketCap. That's down $10 billion over the past 30 days.