AGL Energy's (ASX:AGL) fiscal 2027 guidance is below market expectations, and its net profit after tax (NPAT) drives dividends, which will be higher in fiscal 2027 relative to expectations, Jefferies said in a note on Wednesday.

Its fiscal 2027 guidance range for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) is between AU$1.9 billion and AU$2.2 billion, and its NPAT guidance is between AU$470 million and AU$670 million.

The guidance assumes stable consumer margins, a full-year Liddell Battery contribution and the remaining cost-out benefits, which will be offset by lower wholesale electricity prices rolling through contracted positions and higher gas costs as legacy contracts expire.

Expectations for AGL's fiscal 2027 guidance had been reduced since the result for the first half of fiscal 2026, with consensus EBITDA down 4.7% and consensus NPAT down 9.5%.

The investment firm maintained its buy rating on AGL Energy with a price target of AU$11.21 per share.