Singapore raises growth forecast to as high as 5.5% on AI boom

Srinidhi Ragavendran and Claire Jiao / Bloomberg

Aug 11

Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on Saturday said Singapore's growth momentum is expected to continueSingapore upgraded its 2026 economic growth forecast anew as the artificial intelligence boom lifts ...

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It's the second upward revision to the growth outlook, which was initially set at 1%-3% last year.\nThe move comes as GDP grew 5.9% in the second quarter, above the government's advance estimate of 5.7% and the median 5.8% forecast in a Bloomberg survey. It eased from the 6.3% notched in the January-March period.\nThe benchmark Straits Times Index rose 1.2% while the Singapore dollar was steady at 1.2799 versus the greenback.\n\"The global AI investment boom has been stronger than expected,\" MTI said in a statement. \"For the rest of the year, a further acceleration in AI-related capital expenditure is expected to lift the growth prospects of economies plugged into the global technology value chain.\" \nSingapore accounts for about 10% of all chips produced globally and 20% of semiconductor manufacturing equipment. At the same time, the economic impact of the Middle East conflict has been \"less severe than initially feared,\" the ministry said, adding that the drawdown of oil inventories and substitution to alternative energy sources have capped the rise in global energy costs.\n\"This is a massive upgrade from MTI. We expected 'only' 3%-5% from 2%-4%,\" said Nomura Holdings Inc. economist Euben Paracuelles. \"This implies the economy is growing well above trend for an impressive third year in a row.\"\nThe global appetite for AI has lifted economies including Taiwan and South Korea. Taiwan's economy expanded at the fastest pace in about 50 years in the first half of 2026 while economists raised their outlook for South Korea again on the back of the AI boom.   \nSingapore's manufacturing and wholesale trade were the main growth drivers last quarter, expanding 12.5% and 8.3%, respectively, as robust AI demand lifted the electronics, precision engineering and machinery sectors.\nStrong credit growth also helped boost finance and insurance. All services sectors expanded except for food and beverage, which shrank 1.5% last quarter, partly due to a decline in visitor arrivals.\nOn a seasonally adjusted basis, the economy grew 1.4% from the previous quarter, beating the 1.2% estimate.\n\nThe better-than-expected economic performance, however, risks driving up inflation at a time when continued tensions in the Middle East keep global energy costs elevated.\nIn anticipation, the government has nearly doubled its support package, including cash vouchers, grants and rental assistance, to help households and businesses defray higher costs. The Monetary Authority of Singapore has also delivered back-to-back policy tightening, warning at its July meeting that inflation is likely stay elevated through mid-2027.\nThe central bank's inflation forecast remains unchanged at 1.5%-2.5%, despite the latest GDP data, MAS Deputy Managing Director Edward Robinson said in the briefing on Tuesday. Its latest assessment and policy stance also remain appropriate, he said.\nInflationary pressures will more likely come from fuel, fertilizers and food, rather than from the AI boom, MTI Permanent Secretary Beh Swan Gin added.\n\"The key question going forward is whether the current AI-related uplift broadens to more domestic-oriented sectors,\" Jonathan Koh, Asia economist and FX analyst at Standard Chartered Plc said.\nA wider spillover would make Singapore's economic expansion more durable, but also generate stronger wage and price pressures. \"Signs of such second-round effects would raise the possibility of further MAS tightening,\" he said.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}