The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0935 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rise in European trade as oil prices increase. Iran on Monday said there were no planned talks with the U.S., creating uncertainty after the U.S. recently cancelled planned attacks against Iran in order to allow discussions to proceed. Discrepancy between U.S. and Iranian messaging could sustain safe-haven demand and keep oil prices supported, feeding inflation concerns, says BankPro's Paolo Broccardo in a note. Geopolitical uncertainty is providing the dollar with underlying support, he says. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 2.2 basis points to 4.705%, according to Tradeweb. The DXY dollar index increases 0.1% to 100.013. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0919 GMT - The cost of insuring euro-denominated credit against default stays steady due to uncertainty around the Middle East conflict. The U.S. cancelled planned attacks against Iran and said the two nations would hold talks to end the conflict. However, Iran on Monday said the were no planned talks with the U.S., creating uncertainty around the possible end to the conflict. The iTraxx Europe Main index of euro investment-grade credit default swaps is unchanged at 52 basis points, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0916 GMT - AI investment is among a number of factors that are accelerating a rise in long-term bond yields, BlackRock Investment Institute says in a note. AI adds to the impact of prolonged supply shocks and heavy government borrowing, it says. "The structural forces behind higher bond yields have been building for several years but intensified this year." In this environment, government bonds provide less ballast--implying that they act as less of a stabilizing asset--but provide more income, "expanding the opportunity for durable income," the asset manager says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0854 GMT - Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's approach to monetary policy could prove detrimental to the dollar in the medium to long term, Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke says in a note. Warsh hinted last week that the market will do the work for him by pricing in higher long-term interest rates, she says. This suggests financing conditions will tighten without having to raise rates, dampening inflation. However, this is a "dangerous tactic" as a central bank's credibility depends on how decisively it acts against price risks, she says. If inflation exceeds the target for five years and a rate rise fails to materialize, the market will punish the currency, she says. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 100.014.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0818 GMT - The steepening of the U.S. 2-30-year Treasury yield curve after last week's Federal Reserve meeting reflects growing inflation worries and uncertainty over how the Fed will respond, BlackRock Investment Institute says in a note. This isn't anything new but a continuation of thebroader macro regime over several years, it says. "The fastest AI investment buildout in history is unfolding in a world shaped by supply scarcity, where energy constraints, tight labor markets and geopolitical fragmentation are shifting the focus from efficiency to resilience." Meanwhile, governments and hyperscalers are drawing on the same pool of savings, intensifying competition for capital and these forces are pushing investors to demand higher returns to lend for longer, it says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0812 GMT - The March 2032 gilt could record improved performance going forward as the supply of new short-dated gilts is expected to slow, RBC Capital Markets strategists say in a note ahead of an auction of the bond. The Debt Management Office is due to sell 4.25 billion pounds in the March 2032 gilt at 0900 GMT. The pace of short-term gilt sales by the DMO could decelerate in the second half of the fiscal year 2027 as the agency has already completed 12 of its 20 planned auctions of short-dated gilts, the strategists say. This should be supportive for U.K. 5-year government bonds, they say. The March 2032 gilt yield last trades up 2.1 basis points at 4.601%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0803 GMT - The euro could struggle to rise against the dollar as it looks modestly overvalued, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. ING's short-term fair model suggests the euro versus the dollar is overvalued by about 0.5%-1.0%, he says. The euro needs a favorable shift in short-term rate differentials to take another leap higher, driven by a repricing of expectations for U.S. interest-rate rises, he says. "Our baseline for this week is for euro-dollar to edge back below $1.150 on a more supported dollar, but unless U.S. jobs figures come in particularly hot, we don't see a return to $1.140 in the near term." U.S. nonfarm payrolls data are due Friday. The euro trades flat at $1.1511. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0755 GMT - China's activity indicators likely softened in July, partly due to extreme weather events and a seasonal slowdown, according to Citi analysts in a research note. Citi expects industrial growth to decelerate to 4.8% on year in July from 5.3% in June, with production subindex in the PMI survey slipping into contractionary territory. The reading could still be higher than the low rates seen in April and May, thanks to the buoyant high-tech sectors and a "more benign base", the analysts say. "An investment rebound may not take place in July with weather events and yet-to-accelerate policy deployment," they say. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0724 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds are fairly steady in early trade. Geopolitical concerns subsided after the U.S. halted planned attacks against Iran, although uncertainty remains after Iran said Monday there were no talks underway with the U.S. Markets are optimistic that the U.S. and Iran will reach a deal as neither wants all-out war. Ten-year gilt yields rise 0.6 basis points to 4.958%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0704 GMT - Bitcoin stays under pressure following renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and after crypto hoarding firm Strategy announced it sold bitcoins last week. President Trump said Monday Iran was "unbelievably duplicitous," claiming Tehran had asked for talks on ending the war before denying discussions were taking place. Strategy said Monday it sold 1,638 bitcoin for $104.73 million last week, marking the third time the company has sold the cryptocurrency this year. Meanwhile, bitcoin owners continue to reel from a hack of bitcoin storage device Coldcard. Bitcoin falls 0.2% to $63,626, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0656 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields are little changed, tracking a similarly steady trade in U.S. Treasury yields. Developments in the Middle East remain the key driver for government bonds. Iran said Monday there were no talks underway with the U.S. after President Trump said he cancelled a strike on the country to allow for negotiations. "We are still positive that a deal will be reached eventually as both the U.S. and Iran do not want to go an all out war," Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. Eurozone bond supply is fading this month due to the seasonal issuance slowdown.The 10-year Bund yield is stable at 3.148%, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0644 GMT - The dollar rises as renewed concerns over U.S.-Iran tensions lift oil prices and the impact of recent U.S.-Japanese joint interventions to support the yen starts to fade. Iran said Monday there were no talks underway with the U.S. after President Trump said he cancelled a strike on the country to allow for negotiations. In response, Trump said Iran was "unbelievably duplicitous." U.S. and Japanese authorities confirmed joint intervention to shore up the yen last week, which had caused the dollar to weaken. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 100.008 after hitting a seven-week low of 99.418 Monday. The dollar rises 0.3% to 157.61 yen after reaching a three-month low of 155.21 Monday, according to LSEG.