SoFi Must Win Back Wall Street. Will a Slight Earnings Beat Help?

Dow Jones
Jul 29

SoFi Technologies keeps delivering what it calls record quarters, yet Wall Street remains hard to impress.

The fintech's second-quarter numbers beat forecasts by a hair. SoFi posted adjusted earnings of 12 cents a share, topping Wall Street's call for 11 cents. Adjusted net revenue jumped 40% to $1.2 billion, edging past analysts' forecasts of $1.1 billion.

"The breadth and diversification of our business gives me great confidence in our ability to continue driving strong growth and returns, " CEO Anthony Noto told Barron's. "But what excites me most is the velocity of our growth."

This optimism extended to the company's guidance as SoFi lifted parts of its outlook on the back of its latest quarter. Management is forecasting adjusted net revenue of roughly $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion, implying roughly 32% to 35% growth. This is up from previous expectations of $4.66 billion, or 30% growth.

SoFi reiterated its adjusted earnings guidance of 60 cents a share. Analysts polled by FactSet were looking for 59 cents.

Total fee-based revenue -- a category SoFi has been aggressively growing to diversify away from interest-rate sensitivity -- reached $472.3 million in the quarter. More broadly, the company saw mixed performance across its business segments.

SoFi's financial services division posted $466.3 million in net revenue, a 29% increase from the prior year. The business unit includes the company's SoFi Invest offering and its branded credit card.

Although SoFi has diversified well past its origin in student loans, its lending division remains a growth driver. The company's lending segment brought in $724.8 million, a 63% increase from the same period last year. On an adjusted basis, revenue came to $711.7 million, up 59%.

But as these business divisions saw growth, SoFi's technology platform segment faltered. Net revenue fell 23% to $84.5 million, with SoFi pointing to the exit of an unnamed "large client" before the end of last year that continued to weigh on results.

Heading into Wednesday's session, SoFi stock had declined 36% in 2026, putting it far behind the broader market. SoFi has contended with a lofty valuation and broader weakness in the financial technology sector, but shares were particularly volatile after short seller Muddy Waters Research released a scathing report in mid-March accusing the company of accounting manipulation.

Although SoFi dismissed the claims as "factually inaccurate and misleading," the report continued to drag on the stock. Shares suffered a historic drop the following month alongside SoFi's first-quarter earnings, despite core performance metrics meeting or beating analysts' expectations.

To draw in new users and expand its footprint, SoFi has leaned into new initiatives, including launching its own stablecoin in May. CEO Noto remains steadfast in supporting the company.

"For the first time, we added twice as many products as members, and 51% of new products were opened by existing members," Noto said. "That tells us members are not just joining SoFi -- they're coming back and trusting us with more of their financial lives."

And while allegations in the report may have weighed on shares, they seem to have had little impact on SoFi's ability to attract new customers. Members grew 35% to 15.8 million in the latest quarter. The company said it continues to expect to increase total members by at least 30% year over year for 2026.

For Noto, the second quarter was business as usual. "We've built something that is very hard for a traditional bank or a single-product fintech to replicate," the CEO said, highlighting the company's "increasingly differentiated, increasingly profitable" business model.

His remarks align with SoFi's long-standing mission to become a "one-stop shop" spanning banking, personal finance, and cryptocurrency.

In simple terms, the latest quarter was "a real inflection point for the business," Noto told Barron's. Time to see if Wall Street buys the narrative.

 

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