Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Jul 29

The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0750 GMT - Rathbones Group's first-half update should serve as a reminder to the market of the company's turnaround potential, RBC Capital Markets analysts Ben Bathurst and Jude Neanor write in a note. The U.K. wealth manager reported higher pretax profit with broadly flat net flows in the wealth management business, they note. "This could be the first evidence of green shoots following actions management has taken to improve organic growth," they say. Additionally, the group's recovery in asset-gathering performance during the second quarter is reassuring, they say. Shares are down 2% at 16.84 pounds. (najat.kantouar@wsj.com)

0741 GMT - Asian equities are seeing a rotation away from tech, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a research note. SK Hynix's shares ended 9.6% lower despite reporting stellar earnings, sending the Kospi 6.0% lower. Taiwan and Japan, the other two markets with heavy semiconductor exposure, fell 3.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Chip makers have "moved from market darlings to volatility transmitters over the past month," as Asian leadership has shifted toward consumer discretionary, financials, and energy, Munnelly says. While the AI story hasn't disappeared, the market's tolerance for disappointment has collapsed, he says. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0738 GMT - CaixaBank's second-quarter results look unexciting, given that a better-than-expected net profit was mainly due to taxes and other provisions, and could disappoint some, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods's Hugo Cruz and Ben Maher say in a research note. Net profit at the Spanish bank beat consensus expectations by 4.6%, but revenue was in line with forecasts and net interest income fell short of estimates by 1%, according to KBW. Loan growth remains healthy, but CaixaBank reiterated its full-year guidance, the analysts say. "The shares have outperformed the [Euro Stoxx Banks index] by 2.5% over the last month so we think these results will disappoint the bulls," the analysts add. Shares fall 5.2%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0724 GMT - The Bank of Japan is expected to leave rates unchanged at its coming meeting, but may indicate a faster pace of rate hikes than the roughly six-month interval previously suggested, says Vincent Chung at T. Rowe Price. "Our main conviction is that the BOJ needs to raise rates at a faster pace," says the co-portfolio manager. The market also continues to view the BOJ as being behind the curve. Should the BOJ accelerate policy normalization, two more rate hikes are likely this year, he reckons. "A materially and sustainably stronger yen would probably require a combination of faster BOJ tightening, lower energy prices and more coordinated currency intervention," he says in a note. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0656 GMT - UBS Group's better-than-expected underlying earnings for the second quarter are mainly due to the outperformance of its equities-trading activities within its investment bank, Vontobel's Andreas Venditti says in a research note. Underlying pretax profit at the Swiss banking group was $3.9 billion, up 70% on year and 10% above consensus expectations. At the investment bank, higher revenue from prime brokerage, cash equities and equity derivatives contributed to very strong profit growth, the analyst says. Elsewhere, the combined underlying earnings from UBS's three other divisions--wealth management, personal and corporate banking, and asset management--are only 2% above consensus, he adds. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0651 GMT - UBS Group reported strong second-quarter results that feature small net-new-money inflows in the U.S. for its global-wealth-management unit, which look encouraging, RBC Capital Markets' Anke Reingen and Sherry Lin say in a research note. Net new assets in the Swiss banking group's wealth-management division came in at $35.5 billion in the second quarter, slightly below the inflows of $37.4 billion recorded in the previous quarter. Net inflows were mainly driven by Switzerland and the Europe, Middle East and Africa region, but UBS attracted $900 million in net new money in the Americas too, RBC says. "Even if low, the small positive [net new assets] in the Americas is encouraging," the analysts say. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0631 GMT - UBS Group reported a good set of second-quarter results, but recent U.S. bank earnings have pushed up the bar for the Swiss group, analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods say in a research note. Strong client activity helped UBS achieve healthy net new asset inflows in its core global-wealth-management arm, though this was tempered by weaker fee-based flows and a decline in U.S. advisor numbers, the analysts say. Its investment bank performed strongly as expected, they add. A $3 billion buyback through the second quarter of next year should be supportive, according to KBW. "While there is much to like in the story, expectations have increased meaningfully in recent weeks," the analysts say. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0558 GMT - Standard Chartered Bank does not see a 'compelling need' for an interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, Steve Englander says in a note. Markets are currently pricing in a 29% probability of a hike, according to LSEG data, slightly below 31.5% priced in earlier in the day. The Fed will have much more data to inform its decision by the September meeting, says the head of global G-10 FX research and North America macro strategy. These data include two more labor, CPI and retail sales releases, "but there is uncertainty on whether this has a more important impact on demand or core inflation," Englander says. On a decision to hold rates, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will likely face 2-4 dissents, the analyst says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0432 GMT - Bitcoin edges lower in Asian trading. The cryptocurrency continues to trade in the $58,000-$66,000 range as markets await progress on the potential passage of the U.S. Clarity Act, which would create a regulatory framework for digital assets, says Pratik Kala, crypto portfolio manager at Apollo. Despite support for the passage of the bill, industry participants are placing a 30% probability that it will pass last minute, Kala says. Bitcoin's performance has been relatively stable compared to AI-related stocks, which are nearing correction territory, Kala adds. Bitcoin is last down 0.1% at $63,808.53. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0356 GMT - ANZ's improved capital position and value compared with its peers elevate its appeal among major Australian banks, Morgan Stanley analysts tell clients in a note. Raising their valuation to reflect ANZ's strong balance sheet and lower risk profile, the MS analysts say the bank's productivity agenda under Chief Executive Nuno Matos gives it a better near-term growth profile than its rivals. Even so, they think that investors have low expectations for ANZ's revenue and market-share growth, and see less potential for disappointment than at other large lenders. MS raises its target price 1.5% to 34.50 Australian dollars and keeps an overweight recommendation on the stock, which is up 1.3% at A$37.69. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0340 GMT - Westpac is seen by Morgan Stanley analysts as the most vulnerable of Australia's major lenders to growing margin pressures. The MS analysts tell clients in a note that consumers are becoming more willing to move deposits, and say Westpac would experience the largest margin impact from a shift in transaction balances to high-rate savings accounts. At the same time, the analysts point to management commentary that Westpac wants to win back lost mortgage market share. With competition rising amid a policy driven slowdown in home-loan growth, they see Westpac's margins as especially vulnerable. MS keeps an underweight recommendation on the stock and lowers its target price on the stock by 3.2% to 30.50 Australian dollars. Shares are down 0.3% at A$37.90. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0256 GMT - Macquarie analysts want certainty about where Australia's interest rates and unemployment are likely to peak before turning more positive on job advertiser Seek. Another factor that could form a more constructive view of the ASX-listed business is an improvement in job ad listings, which they expect to fall by about 1% on year in fiscal 2027. Seek remains Macquarie's least-preferred ASX-listed classifieds provider due to risks around listings volumes. The Macquarie analysts tell clients in a note that they expect an adjusted net profit for Seek's most recent fiscal year, which ended June 30, of A$199 million. This is at the lower end of guidance, they observe. Macquarie stays neutral on the stock and cuts its target price 12.5% to 15.75 Australian dollars. Shares are up 4.0% at A$14.62.

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