Auto & Transport Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Jul 29

The latest Market Talks covering the Auto and Transport sector. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1632 ET - Transat A.T. finalizes agreement with the Canadian government to secure up to C$150 million in financing to help offset higher fuel prices. The travel company had signaled last month its intention to apply for financing under a new credit line the federal government set up to help airlines deal with the rapid rise in energy costs. Transat says it is receiving C$125 million up front, with the possibility of additional drawdowns depending on the hit from fuel. It adds the loan has a four-year maturity and carries an annual interest rate of 3.91%. (paul.vieira@wsj.com)

1613 ET - Ford continues to incur large charges from its move to pull back its electric vehicle production. The company's second-quarter loss of $1.33 billion includes $500 million in charges tied to EV program cancellations, as well as a $3.6 billion charge from the end of Ford's EV battery joint venture with SK Group. Ford also reports a decline in revenue, driven in part by the right-sizing of its EV volumes to better match customer demand. Still, the company is working toward building a new, $30,000 electricity-powered truck expected to debut in 2027. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)

1607 ET - Ford Motor is expecting to receive $500 million in refunds this year for tariffs paid under President Trump's old tariff regime, prompting the company to lift its free cash flow guidance. Ford in April said it anticipates a total refund of $1.3 billion, which was recorded as part of the company's first-quarter profit. Still, at the time, Ford said it didn't expect to receive the actual cash until 2027. Now, at least the initial refund payments are expected to hit the company's coffers this year, Ford says. The company didn't address timing for the remaining $800 million it expects to receive. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)

1606 ET - Ford Motor now sees U.S. automobile prices increasing this year to the tune of 0.5%, compared to their previous view that prices would stay roughly flat. The new expectation is a major driver of the company's revised outlook, which sees full-year adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of between $10 billion and $11 billion, up from a range of $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion. The higher prices have already helped boost second-quarter revenue in the Ford Blue segment to $26.1 billion from $25.8 billion a year earlier, despite the company reporting an overall decrease in revenue. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)

1301 ET - It will be difficult but not impossible for Canada to double the level of exports to non-U.S. markets by 2035, says Oxford Economics in a note. "But it won't occur organically, and it's unlikely without strategic and timely infrastructure investments," says the forecasting firm. Investments are needed at Canada's existing ports, and the construction of new terminals, the firm says. Both the Bank of Canada and PM Mark Carney are warning the country's marine terminals have fallen behind global peers in terms of shipping and efficiency. Oxford notes the vast majority of goods destined for non-US destinations travel by ship. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1232 ET - A regulatory-driven squeeze on trucking supply could spark a unusually long-lasting freight up-cycle, according to National Bank of Canada's Cameron Doerksen. He says in a note that "trucking supply reductions are primarily a function of regulatory changes in the U.S. and Canada" and will drive ongoing margin expansion for TFII in the coming quarters with "further potential upside from improving demand, particularly in the industrial sectors to which the company is more exposed." What's more, the supply constraints should fuel a trucking up-cycle that has the potential to be more "long-lasting than has historically been the case," Doerksen says. Shares are 4.7% higher at C$215.40. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1057 ET - The impact of Europe's wildfires depends not only on the severity of the hazard itself, but also on industries in its path, Oxford Economics senior economist Daniel Parker says. Around Bordeaux, Gironde's wine industry, agrifood production and logistics networks mean local disruption quickly ripples through supply chains and exports, he says. In Spain, Valencia's concentration of manufacturing, tourism, agriculture and logistics leaves much of its economy dependent on physical assets and transport infrastructure. Near Madrid, fires create impacts beyond the immediate hazard zones on agriculture and transport. "As wildfire seasons become longer and more intense, the effects are increasingly felt through disruptions to production, tourism flows, transport, and supply-chain bottlenecks that extend far beyond the areas directly affected." (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0654 ET - Kuehne + Nagel is delivering the benefits of artificial intelligence, but shares trade at an elevated level, Deutsche Bank analyst Harishankar Ramamoorthy writes. The company's second-quarter EBIT beat consensus by around 8% and full-year guidance was upgraded. Management also highlighted 100 million-150 million Swiss francs of AI-driven productivity benefits by the end of 2027. However, markets treated this as slightly underwhelming, given the AI benefits are gross, not net of costs, and it was unclear how costs could evolve in the future, the bank says. Management also mentioned the benefits could be passed on to clients to gain market share. Deutsche Bank lifts its target price for the stock to 196 francs from 183 francs and reiterates its hold rating. Shares rise 0.5% to 202.70 francs. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0637 ET - Volkswagen is fully embracing fixed-cost reductions to address production inefficiencies, as uncertainty remains elevated across the automotive sector, Berenberg analysts Romain Gourvil and Tommy Whitfield write. Aside from the much improved recent track record for cash conversion, these efforts are visibly supporting margins at the company's "core" brands with further initiatives yet to come, they add. "China remains challenging, but we think downside risk relative to German peers has reduced, as China expectations are already somewhat derisked for 2026-27." The launch of locally designed products is accelerating in late 2026 and into 2027, which should also help, the bank says. Berenberg lowers its price target for the stock to 100 euros from 113 euros and maintains its buy rating. Shares rise 2.6% to 74.30 euros. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0503 ET - Consensus expectations for Mercedes-Benz's adjusted earnings could rise by a mid-to-high single-digit percentage after the German carmaker reported a second-quarter beat, UBS analyst Patrick Hummel writes. Adjusted EBIT beat by 40%, with all segments contributing, he says. The cars unit beat with a 4% clean margin, above consensus at 3.5%, while the vans adjusted EBIT margin of 10.2% is slightly above the upper end of the 8%-10% guidance corridor. Financial services also delivered a solid beat, he adds. Mercedes confirmed the 3%-5% cars and vans EBIT margin corridors. While investors will likely remain cautious on the cars EBIT margin in the second half due to China, UBS thinks expectations for the company drifted substantially lower following last month's warning from BMW. Shares rise 2.5%. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0423 ET - Michelin's half-year results show greater resilience than feared, Equita analyst Martino De Ambroggi says in a research note. The French tire maker's operating profit came in line with expectations, while free cash flow improved, the analyst says. Taking into account comments by management on, for example, original equipment trucks rising in North America in the second half of the year, and assuming that the macro environment doesn't deteriorate, Equita adjusts its estimates by improving free cash flow by 200 million euros to around 1.6 billion euros, De Ambroggi says. Shares trade 1.9% lower at 34.27 euros. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)

0410 ET - Mercedes-Benz posted second-quarter results that are better than expected overall, with guidance largely maintained and free cash flow boosted by the sale of Daimler Truck shares, Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois writes. The company mostly confirmed guidance as results beat across metrics, including a car margin of 4% that landed in the middle of the full-year range. The vans margin of 10.2% is above the full-year guidance range, Houchois adds. There was a net negative contribution of 560 million euros from China joint ventures, but industrial free cash flow of 1.1 billion euros is better-than-expected after the company received 417 million euros of proceeds from selling Daimler Truck shares. Shares rise 5%.

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