Warsh's Broader Inflation Assessment Seen as Dovish
Dow Jones
Jul 30
1125 ET - Fed Chairman Warsh's indication that inflation gauges other than the PCE will play a bigger role in monetary policy reduces the chances of an interest rate increase soon, Citi's Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark write. Core June PCE cools to 3.3% from 3.4%. For comparison, core CPI was 2.6%, much closer to the Fed's 2% inflation target, Hollenhorst and Clark say. "Over the next couple months it should become increasingly apparent that the broader set of inflation metrics Warsh is watching are not showing a concerning acceleration in inflation," the economists say. Markets price 59% odds of a hike in September, according to CME, and the authors suggest it could be a mistake.
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