The bond market to Kevin Warsh: What are you doing about inflation?

CNN Business

Jul 30

New York — Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh repeatedly said Wednesday that the central bank is committed to reining in inflation. “Let me reiterate: There is no ...

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There’s only a target, and it’s 2%.”Long-term bond yields surged during Warsh’s remarks, with the 30-year US Treasury yield jumping from around 5.1% to 5.21%, its highest level since 2007. The 10-year yield jumped from just above 4.61% to almost 4.69%, nearing its highest level in over a year.Long-term yields move on expectations for inflation and economic growth. The surge in yields signals traders are concerned that the Fed might not do enough to rein in stubborn inflation.“Really the market’s issue is, are you doing something?”Stocks, bonds and the US dollar all fell as Warsh’s remarks stirred up volatility. The Dow fell more than","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"cnn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BSR":"Beacon Unified Catalyst ETF","RMIF":"LHA Risk-Managed Income ETF","MDLV":"MORGAN DEMPSEY LARGE CAP VALUE ETF","CGUS":"Capital Group Core Equity ETF","CGUI":"Capital Group Ultra Short Income ETF","MAPP":"Harbor Multi Asset Explorers ETF","ADPV":"ADAPTIV SELECT ETF","SDOG":"ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF","ILCV":"iShares Morningstar Value ETF","VXZ":"中期波动率指数期货ETN","CGDV":"Capital Group Dividend Value ETF","PRVS":"Parnassus Value Select ETF","CDC":"VictoryShares US EQ Income Enhanced Volatility Wtd ETF","DIVZ":"TrueShares Low Volatility Equity Income ETF","AGGZ":"Twin Oak Enhanced Fixed Income ETF","LGH":"HCM Defender 500 Index ETF","BNDW":"Vanguard Total World Bond ETF","SAMT":"Strategas Macro Thematic Opportunities ETF","HIDV":"AB US HIGH DIVIDEND ETF","VOTE":"TCW Transform 500 ETF","FLV":"American Century Focused Large Cap Value ETF","ARP":"PMV ADAPTIVE RISK PARITY ETF","IMCG":"iShares Morningstar Mid-Cap Growth ETF","VTV":"Vanguard Value ETF","FLXI":"Invesco Flexible Income ETF","DECU":"AllianzIM U.S. Equity Buffer15 Uncapped Dec ETF","REMC":"COLUMBIA RESEARCH ENHANCED MID CAP ETF","BAMA":"Brookstone Active ETF","LCG":"Sterling Capital Focus Equity ETF","RULE":"Adaptive Core ETF","TCTL":"Premise Capital Diversified Tactical ETF","FT":"富兰克林通用信托","EES":"WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Fund","XOEX":"Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF","JPIE":"JPMorgan Income ETF","EQRR":"ProShares Equities for Rising Rates ETF","DFUV":"DIMENSIONAL US MARKETWIDE VALUE ETF","BKDV":"BNY MELLON DYNAMIC VALUE ETF","FXD":"First Trust Consumer Discretiona","UITB":"VictoryShares Core Intermediate Bond ETF","IUS":"Invesco RAFI Strategic US ETF","MODL":"VictoryShares WestEnd US Sector ETF","ESLV":"Eventide Large Cap Value ETF","FITZ":"Fitz-Gerald Must Have Portfolio ETF","TEQI":"T. 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There’s only a target, and it’s 2%.”\n    \n\n            The bond market called his bluff.\n    \n\n            Long-term bond yields surged during Warsh’s remarks, with the 30-year US Treasury yield jumping from around 5.1% to 5.21%, its highest level since 2007. The 10-year yield jumped from just above 4.61% to almost 4.69%, nearing its highest level in over a year.\n    \n\n            Long-term yields move on expectations for inflation and economic growth. The surge in yields signals traders are concerned that the Fed might not do enough to rein in stubborn inflation.\n    \n\n            Yields rise when bond prices fall. Traders dumped long-term bonds, demanding more compensation for the risk of inflation eating into their return.\n    \n\n            “Really the market’s issue is, are you doing something?” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told CNN after Warsh’s comments. “It’s one thing to talk about fighting inflation. It’s another thing entirely to do something about it. And again, it’s not clear what he’s doing about it.”\n    \n\n\n\n      Related article\n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks during a news conference in Washington, DC, on July 29, 2026.\n\nBrendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTwo key takeaways from the Fed’s unusually unpredictable meeting\n\n5  min read\n\n\n\n            The Fed on Wednesday held interest rates steady for the fifth meeting in a row.\n    \n\n            The US-Israeli war with Iran and the ensuing oil shock in recent months have boosted inflation. Resurgent tensions this month have reawakened fears about a prolonged period of higher oil prices.\n    \n\n            The Fed chairman has assigned task forces to review different topics including the central bank’s approach to inflation. While Warsh has been outspoken about his insistence on taming inflation, markets are growing impatient.\n    \n\n            The heightened volatility in the bond market also comes as Warsh has signaled interest in less messaging and forward guidance from the central bank. Warsh said on Wednesday that he’d prefer for markets to “play the ball” as opposed to “the referee.”\n    \n\n            “I was comforted that markets in the inter-meeting period weren’t reacting to us. They weren’t reacting to (the Fed’s quarterly dot plot) or to speeches,” he said. “They appeared more than ever to be reacting to real-time events, so they’re gauging themselves how restrictive the Treasury curve should be, and that I think has been a useful development.”\n    \n\n            Stocks, bonds and the US dollar all fell as Warsh’s remarks stirred up volatility. The Dow fell more than 1,100 points for its worst day in over a year. The dollar index fell more than 0.5% as traders adjusted bets on when the Fed might hike interest rates.\n    \n\n            Markets are pricing in a 57% chance the Fed raises interest rates in September, according to CME FedWatch, a real-time forecasting tool. This is down from almost 70% earlier this afternoon, though roughly in line with yesterday’s odds.\n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTraders work at the New York Stock Exchange after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 29, 2026.\n\nMichael Nagle/Bloomberg/Getty Images\n\n\n\n\n\n            Bond yields have climbed this month as tensions between Washington and Tehran have picked up and oil prices have rebounded higher. Warsh on Wednesday acknowledged the rise in yields but said he welcomed the market adjusting to data on its own. Still, higher yields – and the bond market – will test Warsh’s outlook.\n    \n\n            The 10-year US Treasury yield influences borrowing costs across the economy, including mortgage rates. Higher yields mean tighter financial conditions. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate last week rose to 6.58%, its highest level in almost a year.\n    \n\n            Three Fed members dissented on Wednesday in favor of a rate hike,  showing some divide within the central bank. The surge in yields is also one sign that the markets are testing the new Fed chair.\n    \n\n            “It’s not uncommon for markets to test new Fed chairs,” Sosnick said. “You don’t really know how the market’s going to react.”\n    \n\n            “The market mood in the last few weeks has changed from sanguine about everything to a bit more cautious and a bit more nervous and a bit more ‘show me’ (action on inflation), and we’re not getting that right now,” he said.\n    \n\n            Stocks were also under pressure from weakness in tech and AI stocks. The Nasdaq Composite is down 9.8% from its peak in early June, putting the index on the brink of a correction (a fall of 10% from a recent peak).\n    \n\n            “In Warsh’s press conference, he once again failed to specify how he intended to achieve his stridently asserted inflation resolve,” Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in a note.\n    \n\n            Feroli said he now expects the Fed to hike interest rates in December, compared to his previous forecast of the second half of 2027.\n    \n\n            “We wouldn’t characterize this revision as the market ‘pressuring’ the Fed, but rather another challenge prompting the Fed to act to maintain its credibility,” Feroli said.\n    \n\n            Christian Hoffmann, head of fixed income at Thornburg Investment Management, said he thinks the rise in long-term yields reflect a market that is “openly questioning” Warsh’s credibility.\n    \n\n            “Credibility is much easier to lose than it is to gain,” Hoffmann said in a note. “It is difficult to view today’s outcome as anything other than an own goal.”","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}