Global electric vehicle sales rebounded sharply in the second quarter despite a broader slowdown in the automotive market, prompting the International Energy Agency to raise its outlook for EV adoption this year.

In a report released Thursday, the IEA said electric vehicles are now expected to account for 29% of global new car sales in 2026, up from its previous forecast of 28% published in May, with EV sales expected to grow 10%. The agency cited strong second-quarter momentum as well as policy support in Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia.

The energy crisis sparked by conflict in the Middle East has renewed focus on energy security in road transport, according to the report. The sector accounts for nearly half of global oil consumption, leaving it particularly exposed to fuel price volatility and supply disruptions.

The revised outlook follows a 35% increase in second-quarter EV sales from the first quarter and a 4% rise from a year earlier. Electric cars accounted for 24% of global car sales during the first half of the year, one percentage point higher than in the same period last year. The recovery largely offset weaker first-quarter performance, leaving first-half EV sales only slightly below the same period of 2025.

The EV recovery came even as the overall global automotive market weakened. Global car sales fell about 5% year over year in the first six months of the year, driven primarily by declines in China and the U.S., the world's two largest auto markets. Despite the wider market downturn, the IEA reported record second-quarter EV sales across 50 countries, with sales roughly doubling from a year earlier in Australia, Brazil, India, South Korea and Vietnam. More than 90 countries recorded year-over-year EV sales growth in the first half 2026.

China remains the world's largest EV market, though the IEA expects the country's electric car sales to stay broadly unchanged from 2025, marking the first year this decade without annual growth. Even so, EVs are projected to account for more than 60% of new car sales in China this year, a record share. The agency said weakness in China's broader automotive market is expected to weigh on global EV sales growth through 2026.

As domestic demand weakens, Chinese automakers have continued expanding overseas. Electric vehicle exports from China during the first six months of 2026 nearly matched total shipments for all of 2025, according to the report. The IEA estimates that only about two-thirds of those exported vehicles have been sold, leaving more than 1 million Chinese EVs available for sale in global markets when combined with unsold exports from previous months. The agency said the rapid growth in Chinese EV exports is intensifying competition, particularly in emerging markets.

 
Reporting by Allegra Fradkin, afradkin@opisnet.com; Editing by Michael Kelly, 
mkelly@opisnet.com