Moderna posted a narrower per-share loss and higher revenue in its latest quarter, sending the shares higher. But the report highlighted the drugmaker's ongoing struggle to break away from its Covid-era reliance.
At first glance, top- and bottom-line metrics were better than expected. Second-quarter revenue ticked up 2% to $145 million, beating analysts' calls for $103 million.
Moderna posted a loss of $1.97 a share, narrower than the loss of $2.01 Wall Street had anticipated, and slimmer than the per-share loss of $2.13 reported last year.
The drugmaker reiterated its full-year guidance of 10% revenue growth, evenly split between U.S. and international sales. Moderna expects 55% of its second-half revenue to be recognized in the third quarter of the year.
It was "a straightforward print," said Jefferies analyst Andrew Tsai on Friday. He noted that revenue was driven by Moderna's two approved Covid vaccines, dropping from the previous quarter due to typical seasonality, as annual sales skew toward the second half of the year.
Shares reversed earlier losses in premarket trading and rose 2.9% on Friday. Futures tracking the benchmark S&P 500 ticked up 0.2%.
While Moderna is trying to move past its identity as a Covid-era play by expanding into fields like oncology, its recent quarter hinged on strong Covid-19 vaccine sales in the U.K. For now, its flagship Spikevax vaccine continues to heavily dictate its financial performance.
Lower Covid vaccine sales in the U.S. and South America were offset by deliveries in the U.K. under a long-term government partnership, the company said.
That heavy reliance on legacy Covid sales underscores the pressure on Moderna's non-Covid pipeline, which recently suffered a late-stage clinical setback in its norovirus candidate, mRNA-1403.
The candidate didn't meet "statistical criteria for early success" in an interim analysis of safety and efficacy data, Moderna said. The drugmaker plans to enroll an additional group of patients in the trial. The study remains blinded to prevent bias and ensure the integrity of the results.
For all the questions around its future and identity, Moderna has been a winner this year. Heading into Friday's session, shares had nearly doubled in 2026.
A broader rotation away from tech and artificial intelligence into defensive plays has been a boon to healthcare stocks. But Moderna also is benefiting from stock-specific catalysts, namely regulatory progress around its flu vaccine.
Last month, the Food and Drug Administration's top vaccine advisory committee voted to recommend Moderna's mFlusiva for adults 50 and over. The move marked the panel's first review of a new vaccine application since May 2023.
An update on the regulatory front is just days away. CEO Stéphane Bancel said Friday that the company was preparing potential U.S. approval in the second half of the year, paving the way for Moderna's fifth commercial product. A decision is expected by Aug. 5.
Shares have also gained on more speculative news. Fears of a hantavirus outbreak earlier this year sent the stock sharply higher as investors wagered Moderna could replicate its Covid-era success, even as experts repeatedly downplayed any pandemic risk.
Clearly, the market doesn't know what to make of Moderna as it navigates a transition away from its identity as a pure Covid play. Although shares are having a good year, the stock has struggled to return to the heights it reached in 2021, shadowed by skepticism over Moderna's signature mRNA technology.
Jefferies analyst Tsai is eyeing upcoming readouts in the second half of the year, which he thinks could be "clinically meaningful." Moderna and Merck are testing a personalized cancer vaccine combined with Keytruda in patients with severe melanoma who had their tumors surgically removed.
Other potential milestones on the clinical front "are still on track," Tsai wrote. Until Moderna's thesis comes into focus, he's sidelined on the stock.