PayPal Beats Earnings Expectations and Hikes Guidance as Turnaround Takes Root

Dow Jones
Jul 28

Just months into its turnaround, PayPal needs all the help it can get to show investors that things are progressing smoothly. Second-quarter earnings just delivered.

The latest numbers, posted ahead of Tuesday's opening bell, beat management's own guidance as well as Wall Street expectations. PayPal reported adjusted earnings of $1.38 a share for the quarter, topping analysts' calls for $1.28. Revenue came to $8.68 billion, ahead of the $8.47 billion consensus estimate.

The company highlighted improvement in several key metrics including transaction margin dollars, a measure of profitability. Second-quarter transaction margin dollars ticked 1% higher to $3.9 billion, or 3% when excluding interest on customer balances.

Total payment volume grew 9% on a currency-neutral basis to $486.4 billion. The metric, which measures the total value of transactions processed, is seen as a sign of how effectively PayPal monetizes its platform.

Perhaps most encouraging was a full-year guidance hike. PayPal now expects full-year adjusted earnings of $5.38 a share, up from $5.31 in 2025. This compares with previous guidance calling for "low-single-digit decline to slightly positive growth," which the company reiterated as recently as May.

Additionally, PayPal now expects roughly $15.6 billion in transaction margin dollars for the full year -- a slight increase over 2025's $15.5 billion. Just last month, the company had anticipated a "slight decline."

While the raised outlook was modest, the optimism is encouraging for a turnaround that is still in its early stages. As of Monday's close, PayPal was down nearly 4% in 2026, trailing an 8.3% gain for the S&P 500.

While fintech stocks have generally experienced a tumultuous year, PayPal has come under particular pressure. A steep drop in February, sparked by disappointing fourth-quarter earnings and a CEO transition, erased nearly half its value.

Most of those losses were wiped out in mid-July after rumors of a takeover bid sent the shares sharply higher. Over the past month alone, the stock has rallied 27%.

Still, investors are cautiously waiting for a "strategic reorganization" to gather pace after CEO Enrique Lores first announced it earlier this year. Lores himself is a fresh face at the company, having taken over in early 2026 following Alex Chriss's brief tenure.

Rapid change at the company -- marked by executive turnover and a sluggish second quarter -- has failed to allay Wall Street's concerns. In fact, Evercore analyst Adam Fritsch characterized first-quarter earnings as merely a "placeholder" until the board outlined a clear path forward.

It remains to be seen if the latest report will soothe investors. Either way, it's clear that a full transformation won't happen overnight.

 

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