Home prices show no sign of scaling back.
Economists estimate that S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index measuring changes in 20 large metropolitan areas will show a 1.2% year-over-year increase for May, according to FactSet. The data are set for release on Tuesday.
May's price rise is set to beat April's gain of 1.1% by a thin margin. Nationally, home prices rose 0.8% year-over-year in April. While the broad indexes rose, prices fell below year-ago levels in nine of the individual cities reported.
Prices have risen year-over-year for three straight years, according to existing-home sales data published by the National Association of Realtors. In June, the median price rose 1.8% from a year earlier to $440,600 -- the highest recorded.
The Case-Shiller index lags behind other measures of home prices but is broadly watched for its methodology, which measures monthly price fluctuations without the impact of size or type of home.
Would-be buyers have to contend with higher housing costs: the 30-year mortgage rate rose Thursday to its highest level in almost a year -- an average 6.58%, according to Freddie Mac.
Rising inventory is a bright spot for buyers. The Mortgage Bankers Association said last week that home purchase loan application volume increased 6%, helped by more homes for sale. Still, affordability remains an obstacle. In June, existing-homes priced at over $1 million saw sales jump by 18% while sales for homes under $100,000 dropped by 2%.
MBA's most recent forecast from July 22 predicts the U.S. Federal Housing price index slowing to 0.6% gains in 2027, which could offer buyers some relief. Still, they anticipate 2028 creeping back up to roughly current rates -- at 1.4%.
Write to Molly Bordoff at molly.bordoff@barrons.com
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July 27, 2026 16:30 ET (20:30 GMT)
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