Biogen (BIIB) Expands Its Alzheimer’s Pipeline, Is The 9% Undervaluation Still There?

Simply Wall St.

Jul 21

Biogen (BIIB) is back in focus after a cluster of Alzheimer’s related updates, including FDA approval for at home LEQEMBI IQLIK injections and new Phase 2 data for its tau targeting candidate ...

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At the same time, a 90 day share price return of 7.53% and 1...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD","PBE":"INVESCO BIOTECHNOLOGY & GENOME ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BIIB":"渤健公司","BMED":"iShares Health Innovation Active ETF","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0889565916.HKD":"FRANKLIN BIOTECHNOLOGY DISCOVERY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0320765992.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Biotechnology Discovery A Acc SGD","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0109394709.USD":"富兰克林生物科技新领域基金A (acc)"},"translate_title":"百健（BIIB）扩大阿尔茨海默氏症产品线，9% 的低估还在吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BMED":0.6,"PBE":0.6,"BIIB":1.5},"content_text":"Biogen (BIIB) is back in focus after a cluster of Alzheimer’s related updates, including FDA approval for at home LEQEMBI IQLIK injections and new Phase 2 data for its tau targeting candidate diranersen. See our latest analysis for Biogen. Biogen’s share price has been under near term pressure, with a 1 day share price return of 2.93% and 7 day share price return of 4.34%, even as Alzheimer’s updates keep attention on the stock. At the same time, a 90 day share price return of 7.53% and 1 year total shareholder return of 62.98% contrast with weaker 3 and 5 year total shareholder returns. This suggests that recent momentum has picked up after a tougher multi year period. If these Alzheimer’s updates have you thinking more broadly about healthcare opportunities, it could be worth scanning other neurology and treatment focused companies through the 39 healthcare AI stocks. Bulls point to Biogen’s Alzheimer’s franchise and tau pipeline, while bears highlight mixed long term returns and execution risk. Based on today’s price and the gap to estimated value, which side does the current valuation lean toward? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 9% Undervalued Biogen's most followed narrative pegs fair value around $219 per share, compared with a last close of $199.95, and leans on a measured earnings and margin build out to bridge that gap.  Robust late-stage and diversified neurodegenerative and specialty disease pipelines, including Phase III launches in SMA, lupus, and kidney indications, capitalize on regulatory momentum to address high unmet needs, creating multiple shots on goal that reduce future revenue volatility and support long-term earnings stability.  Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative. Curious how a relatively modest growth outlook, a step up in profitability, and a future earnings multiple above the sector average combine to support that higher fair value? The full narrative spells out the revenue glide path, margin assumptions and valuation bridge that connect Biogen's Alzheimer’s and neurology pipeline to that $219 figure. Result: Fair Value of $219.27 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, the bullish Biogen narrative still hinges on a handful of launches such as LEQEMBI and ZURZUVAE, while rising competition and pricing pressure could challenge those assumptions. Find out about the key risks to this Biogen narrative. Next Steps With sentiment split between Biogen’s risks and rewards, it makes sense to look at the underlying data yourself and move quickly to form an informed view using the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign. Looking for more investment ideas beyond Biogen? If Biogen has sharpened your interest in healthcare and beyond, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with a few focused stock ideas that match your style.  Target potential mispricing by scanning companies that look high quality yet out of favor using the 45 high quality undervalued stocks. Prioritize resilience by reviewing stocks flagged for stronger balance sheets and healthier fundamentals through the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (48 results). Hunt for under-the-radar opportunities by checking a screener containing 20 high quality undiscovered gems before they sit on everyone else’s radar.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Biogen might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}