Archer-Daniels-Midland's (ADM) improving crush margins have raised earnings expectations, but Bunge Global (BG) remains the preferred long-term investment due to its Viterra synergies and stronger upside potential, Morgan Stanley said in a note Monday.

Archer-Daniels-Midland is set to release its Q2 results on Aug. 4 and Bunge Global on July 29.

The bank said it expects Archer-Daniels-Midland's Q2 earnings per share to come in about 3% above consensus, driven mainly by stronger crush margins, although the benefit is partly offset by a smaller reversal of the large mark-to-market loss recorded in Q1.

For Bunge Global, the firm expects Q2 EPS to beat consensus by about 3% and has raised its 2026 EPS forecast to 4% above consensus and above the high end of the company's guidance. It also sees greater upside in 2027, with its forecast 9% above consensus.

"We continue to prefer Bunge's idiosyncratic opportunity over company-specific risks that could limit Archer-Daniels-Midland earnings upside," the firm said, adding that it doesn't expect Bunge's long-term investment case to play out linearly and sees near-term dislocations as a buying opportunity.

Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Archer-Daniels-Midland to $60 from $58.

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