The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0849 ET - Spreads on dollar-denominated credit widened last week, mainly due to increased credit supply, BNP Paribas strategists say in a note. Heavy debt issuance by massive cloud service providers, or hyperscalers, caused a widening in dollar investment-grade credit spreads, the strategists say. Focus will be on further corporate guidance on AI-linked capital expenditure, the strategists say. BNP Paribas strategists have an underweight recommendation on hyperscaler credit. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0807 ET - Marine Le Pen's surprise decision to run as the far-right Rassemblement National candidate in France's presidential election brings the country's public debt sustainability back into focus, Point72's Soren Radde says in a note. France stands out in its large primary deficit, the widest among major eurozone economies. The country's government must maintain the 2026 deficit-reduction effort for at least five straight years to have a chance at stabilizing France's debt ratio below the 118% of GDP that could be reached this year, Radde says. RN's past fiscal plans would create significant upside risks to that scenario, suggesting French government bonds could come under pressure unless Le Pen signals a change of fiscal policy, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0729 ET - Bitcoin falls as U.S. stock futures decline amid renewed weakness in artificial intelligence stocks and a new round of attacks between the U.S. and Iran. "A late rally for cryptocurrencies last week has failed to push on into the new week, a reflection of broader risk-off concerns in global markets," IG analyst Chris Turner says in a note. Crypto markets faces a repeat of May's selloff if the positive momentum over the past two weeks fades, he says. A full-blown resumption of hostilities in the Middle East wouldn't help matters, he says. Bitcoin falls 1.7% to $63,049, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0727 ET - The cost of insuring Bahrain's and Egypt's sovereign debt against default climbs as Middle East hostilities flare up. The U.S. and Iran resumed attacks in the Middle East, raising concerns about renewed conflict in the region and causing investors to exercise caution. Bahrain's five-year sovereign credit default swaps rise 1 basis point to 271bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. Egypt's five-year sovereign CDS costs climb 3bps to 280bps. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0725 ET - The Turkish lira faces further weakness as Turkey's central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates in response to elevated inflation, Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose says in a note. Oil prices are rising again amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, reversing part of the brief relief which had helped inflation moderate to 32.1% in June, he says. This could resurrect currency market demand for higher rates or at least unchanged rates, he says. However, central bank Governor Fatih Karahan already seems keen to discuss future rate cuts and monetary policy remains constrained by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's preference for lower rates, he says. The dollar rises 0.1% to 46.9973 lira after reaching a record high of 47.0054 overnight, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0709 ET - The Bank of England monetary policy committee members could signal a preference for an interest-rate increase in the coming months given rising oil prices, Barclays analysts say in a note. The U.S. struck Iranian targets over the weekend and Iran launched strikes on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. "We think the increased tensions in the Middle East and rise in oil prices this week will keep the risk of a further inflationary impulse forefront in the minds of MPC members," they say. Markets fully price in one quarter-point BOE rate increase in 2026, and a 28% chance of a second rate increase by year-end, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0639 ET - U.S. Treasury yields edge higher but retreat from highs earlier in the day while the dollar trades steady as markets absorb the prospect of a new phase of military escalation in the Middle East. "The week ahead now becomes critical because the market needs to know whether the oil shock is feeding into the inflation data or simply tightening financial conditions through sentiment," Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. The two-year Treasury yield rises 1 basis points to 4.216%, having hit 4.239%, the highest level since February 2025, earlier in the day, according to Tradeweb data. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.2 basis points at 4.570%. The DXY dollar index is steady at 100.943, having earlier traded higher. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0602 ET - The dollar could ease if data Tuesday show U.S. underlying inflation pressures remained subdued in June, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. Market participants will be watching closely for signs of second-round effects from higher energy prices feeding into underlying inflation, he says. So far, core inflation has increased only modestly since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict, he says. "Another benign core reading, alongside easing energy inflation, would likely encourage market participants to pare back expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes, putting a dampener on dollar strength in the week ahead." The DXY dollar index trades flat at 100.911. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0543 ET - U.K. government bond yields, or gilt yields, are at risk of rising due to political uncertainty, Barclays' analysts say in a note. The U.K. faces political risk as the country awaits a new prime minister after Keir Starmer stepped down in June. Andy Burnham is widely expected to succeed Starmer on July 20 if no Labour party candidate challenges him for the position. The U.K.'s poor public finances could present a challenge for the new prime minister, the analysts say. Bond yields rise globally due to increased Middle East tensions, though U.K. gilt yields rise by more than their eurozone counterparts. Ten-year gilt yields rise 2.2 basis points to 4.904%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0515 ET - The Indonesian government's efforts to centralize management and curb tax leakages in the resources and mineral sectors are expected to gradually boost state revenue and export earnings if policy implementation improves, S&P Global Ratings says in a note. Indonesia's weaker fiscal and external positions, caused by high energy prices, higher interest rates, a weaker rupiah, policy uncertainty and rising debt, are temporary and should improve with higher commodity prices and government spending cuts, it says. S&P affirms Indonesia's BBB long-term sovereign credit rating, and expects the government to keep its fiscal deficit below the legal ceiling of 3% of GDP. It expects Indonesia's economy to grow 5.1% this year despite robust 5.6% growth in 1Q, due to continued external uncertainties and higher domestic interest rates. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0508 ET - The Polish zloty could underperform its central European peers as the region comes under pressure from risk aversion due to renewed U.S.-Iran conflict, ING's Frantisek Taborsky says in a note. National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapinski said a future rate cut was possible during a press conference last Thursday. This could weigh on the zloty for a "bit longer" as data on Wednesday should confirm inflation eased to 2.5% in June, Taborsky says. In contrast, the Czech central bank raised rates in June and Hungary's domestic backdrop has improved, supporting the outlook for these currencies, he says. The euro rises 0.2% to 4.3275 zloty, having reached a 19-month high of 4.3502 on Friday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0452 ET - Yields on U.K. 30-year government bonds rise as higher oil prices push up inflation risks. The prospect of elevated inflation raises concerns about the impact on the economy, as well as the possibility of interest-rate rises by the Bank of England. The price of a barrel of Brent crude climbs 2.6% to $77.98 following U.S. attacks on Iranian targets and Iran's strikes on commercial vessels on the Strait of Hormuz. U.K. 30-year gilt yields rise 2.7 basis points to last trade at 5.637%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 13, 2026 08:49 ET (12:49 GMT)

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