The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1148 ET - Maple Leaf Foods recent price increases have pressured sales volumes as Canadians pull back spending in the midst of an affordability crisis, Stifel's Martin Landry says. Those lower volumes will drag down the company's revenue growth, Landry said, who cut his growth forecast by roughly 300 basis points from previous projections to 3%. Landry expects the price hikes implemented back in February to continue weighing on upcoming 2Q results. "The Canadian consumer is under stress and facing an affordability crisis," he says, adding that "cold and rainy weather played a role, delaying the grilling season later into Q2 than usual." Landry points to a silver lining, however, and foresees improvements in consumer sentiment based on recent data indicating stronger spending intentions among Canadians. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1127 ET - Oil futures turn lower with the market leaning toward expectations of a quick end to the latest military strikes between the U.S. and Iran. "We expect the renewed tension in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran to be relatively short-lived because both countries are constrained by practical economic and political realities," Vikas Dwivedi of Macquarie Group says in a note. For the U.S., there's the risk of higher prices returning with fewer mitigation sources available, and the risk of Iran materially damaging the Middle East's oil infrastructure, he says. Iran has arguably negotiated a "great deal," Dwivedi adds, and "we would be surprised if they overplay a good hand and test President Trump's patience and restraint for minimal remaining gain." WTI is down 1.5% at $72.44 a barrel and Brent is off 1.3% at $77.03. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1119 ET - As 'Moana' is set to come out tomorrow, Mike Hickey, an analyst at Benchmark, anticipates the movie will generate between $60M and $65M in its domestic opening despite a $250M budget, posing a risk for one of Disney's largest theatrical investments of the year. The weaker opening increases the importance of international performance and long-term box office legs, Hickey said. For IMAX, Moana's potential underperformance will likely be offset by the anticipated success of 'The Odyssey.'(grace.yoon@wsj.com)

1110 ET - Global corporate mergers and acquisitions are close to their highest volumes on record in the first half of 2026, Morgan Stanley strategists say in a note. "Large strategic transactions are clearly leading the growth, with middle-market deals gradually improving," they say. Nonetheless, M&A activity is still well below peak levels when adjusted for GDP growth, the strategists say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1046 ET - Credit spreads on tech-linked corporate bonds are wider, on average, than credit spreads in different sectors due to increased AI-linked debt supply, Societe Generale's Juan Valencia says in a note. Investor concerns about possible overvaluation of AI companies have also caused their credit spreads to widen relative to peers, he says. Tech sector credit spreads could face higher volatility than credit spreads in other sectors if Middle East tensions worsen, Valencia says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1001 ET - U.S. pending home sales rose 1.3% from a week earlier to their highest level since the first half of May during the four weeks ending July 5, Redfin says. Homebuying demand picked up partly because of temporarily declining mortgage rates. The weekly average rate dipped to 6.43% on July 2, its lowest level in six weeks. That pushed the median monthly housing payment down to $2,598, also its lowest level in six weeks. But rates bounced back, with the daily average rising to 6.68% on July 8. Home-sale prices remain stubbornly high: The median sale price rose 2.2% year over year to $408,808, just about $500 shy of the all-time high. On the listing side, new listings fell 2.5% week-over-week to their lowest level since January. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1000 ET - An interest rate hike by the ECB in July isn't off the table, Carsten Brzeski at ING says in a note. "Until earlier this week, we would have argued that lower energy prices had taken the rate hike option entirely off the table for the ECB's July meeting--but some members might feel tempted to use the latest resurgence in higher energy prices as a reason to get things done as quickly as possible," he says. Surprisingly low inflation in June and a drop in oil prices could have caused some officials to question the need for further tightening. "However, the recent rebound in oil prices amid renewed Middle East tensions serves as a reminder that the inflation outlook remains far from settled," Brzeski says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0909 ET - Canada's neutral interest rate might be a half-point lower than current Bank of Canada estimates, says economist David Watt at Rosenberg Research. Economists say the neutral rate is the level that neither stimulates nor subtracts from growth, and the BOC estimates that in Canada it sits between 2.25% to 3.25%. Watt says a population decline, two decades of flat growth in capital stock, and lingering US trade-policy uncertainty have pulled Canada's estimate for the neutral rate down by roughly 50 basis points, to between 1.75% and 2.75%. As a result, Watt says, the BOC's main interest rate is likely too high at 2.25%, and a rate increase to guard against inflation risks from higher oil prices would be an error. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0857 ET - The euro could underperform other European currencies as the growth outlook has weakened, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes says in a note. Elevated oil prices are encouraging markets to bet on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates further this year despite consensus growth forecasts having fallen, he says. "I'll stick to the view that by the end of the year, the growth outlook will be playing a bigger role in determining both inflation and ECB policy." Short positions betting on a weaker euro versus the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone "make sense," he says. The euro falls 0.1% to 11.1288 Norwegian krone but trades flat versus the Swedish krona at 11.0630. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0855 ET - Treasury yields are little changed following President Trump's comments yesterday that Iran called him seeking a deal. Oil prices are also stable after Wednesday's rally triggered by the end of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Weekly jobless claims slip to 215,000 from an upwardly revised 217,000, compared with WSJ consensus forecast of 218,000. June existing home sales, due at 10 a.m. ET, are expected to cool down. The WSJ Dollar Index slips 0.1%. The 10-year yield is at 4.577%, after settling yesterday at 4.567%. The two-year declines to 4.189% from 4.200%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0854 ET - Renewed tensions in between the U.S. and Iran could drive up inflationary pressures and keep gilt yields elevated, Validus Risk Management's Harry Woolman says in a note. This could worsen U.K. debt affordability. "Higher inflation expectations are likely to keep rates elevated, ensuring debt-servicing costs remain structurally higher than they were before the pandemic," he says. U.K. government finances are stretched due to high borrowing costs and weak economic growth. Ten-year gilt yields fall 2.6 basis points to 4.940%, having hit a seven-week high of 4.980% on Wednesday, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0741 ET - Sterling's outlook depends on whether potential U.K. prime minister in-waiting Andy Burnham delivers on his promise to stick to the fiscal rules, Ebury's Matthew Ryan says in a note. "If Burnham is a man of his word, then sterling may well be fine," he says. Any indication that these rules are being abandoned or bent, even at the margins, risks a disorderly selloff in U.K. assets, he says. Markets will have more information if Burnham's leadership is confirmed around July 17, he says. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.8533 pounds, having earlier reached a one-year low of 0.8516 pounds, according to LSEG. Sterling is flat at $1.3385 after hitting a three-week high of $1.3430 earlier. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 09, 2026 11:48 ET (15:48 GMT)

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