The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1301 ET - U.S. ethanol production fell last week by 24,000 barrels a day to 1.09 million barrels a day, coming in at the low end of analyst estimates in a Dow Jones survey that ranged from 1.08 million b/d to 1.14 million b/d. Ethanol inventories were down by 762,000 barrels at 23.9 million barrels, the EIA reports, leaving stocks at their lowest level since the start of the year. Corn futures on the CBOT are off 1.6%.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1115 ET - The oil market's attention is shifting to China as traders assess whether Beijing will resume crude buying or delay rebuilding strategic stockpiles as Brent approaches $80 a barrel, Kpler analyst Naveen Das says. According to the data provider, China approved a large increase in July fuel exports, partially unwinding restrictions imposed in March by allowing private refiners to resume shipments, though export volumes still require government approval. The decision could encourage higher refinery runs and crude imports. "Would prices near $80/bbl, with a renewed geopolitical risk premium, prompt China to postpone its crude restocking ambitions to 2027, or would strategic needs prompt it to step back into the market and buy in the third and fourth quarter, offering even more upside support to prices?" says Das. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1108 ET - The dollar is gaining from broader risk aversion after the U.S. and Iran resumed attacks and President Trump announced that the ceasefire deal is over, eToro's Lale Akoner says. "The dollar is benefiting from a more cautious tone across markets," she says. However, the latest moves so far don't represent a significant shift in sentiment. "For now, we think this looks more like a repricing of risk than a fundamental change in the market outlook," she says. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 101.155, having hit a 6-day high of 101.256 earlier in the session. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1102 ET - Oil prices climb more than 7% after President Trump warned the U.S. would likely carry out more strikes on Iran and was considering reimposing a naval blockade on Tehran. Brent crude soars 7.3% to $79.58 a barrel, while WTI futures are up 7.1% to $75.43 a barrel. Trump said he believed his ceasefire deal with Iran was over after the two sides exchanged a series of strikes and the U.S. revoked a waiver allowing Tehran to sell oil. "The direct impact of the U.S. reinstating sanctions on Iran will probably be limited," says Hamad Hussain from Capital Economics. "The bigger risks are that Iran further restricts traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and/or the U.S. reinstates its naval blockade of Iranian ports." The latest escalation risks delaying the recovery in Gulf oil production, with crude prices expected to be volatile in the coming months, analysts say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1050 ET - Rising oil prices could drive up inflation concerns, reducing the possibility of central banks cutting interest rates to support their economies, eToro's Lale Akoner says. President Trump on Wednesday said that the Iran ceasefire is over, causing oil prices to jump. "The ceasefire had helped contain some of the risk premium in oil; its collapse puts energy prices back at the centre of the market outlook," Akoner says. "If oil keeps rising, central banks may have less room to soften their policy stance," she says, adding that bond yields could consequently rise further. Brent crude rises 7.4% to $76.68 while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rise to a 6-week high of 4.593%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1047 ET - Canadian energy stocks are among the few gainers on the TSX after President Trump said he believed his ceasefire deal with Iran was over and that the U.S. would likely carry out more strikes soon. The news sent the price of crude oil surging over renewed supply concerns. In lock-step, Athabasca Oil, Strathcona Resources, Cenovus Energy and International Petroleum were among the top gainers, up 5%, 3.3%, 4%, and 2.5%, respectively. Most other sectors were trading lower. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1027 ET - Renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran raise the risk of a second oil shock, which could push central banks into a more hawkish policy stance, Ryan Sweet at Oxford Economics says in a note. "Some flare-ups were inevitable, unfortunately. The question is whether this represents a bump in the road or whether we're emerging from the eye of the storm," he says. A fragile peace deal will remain the key risk for the global economy moving into the second half of the year. "If the peace deal breaks...it won't just raise oil prices; it would also increase pressure on AI supply chains in Asia, force central banks to be hawkish, tighten financial conditions, and could shift the outcome of the U.S. midterms." (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0932 ET - Dubai stocks lead most major Gulf markets lower amid concerns over the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. President Trump said he believes his ceasefire deal with Iran was over following another round of Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The sharp decline in U.A.E. and Qatari equities reflects a reassessment of geopolitical risk rather than a change in economic fundamentals, says Milad Azar, market analyst at XTB MENA. Escalating regional tensions prompted investors to reduce exposure, leading to broad-based selling across financial and blue-chip stocks, he says. The Dubai Financial Market General Index falls 1.5%, Qatar's QE Index loses 0.8% and Abu Dhabi's benchmark index drops 0.6%. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0932 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher as overnight weather models add some heat to forecasts and tensions flare up in the Middle East. "The range-bound August contract appears to be deriving support from President Trump declaring the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding over and the resulting rise in oil and global LNG prices," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Increased energy risk raises the chances of a near-term test of resistance, although little change in short-term fundamentals suggests upside will likely relent, he says. Nymex natural gas is up 0.7% at $3.288/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0852 ET - Oil futures are higher after the U.S. and Iran renew strikes and the U.S. cancels the sanctions waiver for Iranian oil sales, while President Trump says he thinks the ceasefire is over. "The latest military exchanges raise the risk that talks will either stall or continue under much more fragile conditions," Rystad Energy's head of geopolitical analysis Jorge Leon says in a note. The move higher in oil prices shows sensitivity to any escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, he says. "Even if no sustained physical disruption materializes, uncertainty around vessel safety, insurance costs, potential delays, and the risk of further retaliation is likely to keep volatility elevated in the near term." WTI is up 4.1% at $73.34 a barrel and Brent is 4.2% higher at $77.26 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0824 ET - Markets could face higher volatility for the remainder of 2026 as oil prices rise and supply falls, Algebris Investments' Gabriele Foa says in a note. Renewed U.S.-Iran attacks and President Trump's announcement that the Iran ceasefire is over raise fresh concerns about a potential oil-supply shock. Higher oil prices, lower global oil supply and renewed instability in interest rates could cause markets to be more volatile, Foa says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0609 ET - Spanish energy major Repsol could increase its full-year share buyback if refining margins remain strong, Berenberg analysts write following the company's trading update. Repsol's update shows that margin strength continues into the third quarter, they say. Market watchers already expect Repsol to increase its buyback to around 1.1 billion euros from an initial guidance of 700 million euros, the analysts write. Confirmation of an increase alongside its quarterly results would be positive, they say. Shares are up 3.8% at 22.86 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 08, 2026 13:01 ET (17:01 GMT)

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