The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2143 ET - Indonesia's central bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.75%, as improving rupiah fundamentals give policymakers room to remain patient, CIMB economists Joel Cheung and Michelle Chia say in a note. Lower oil prices would narrow the current account deficit, while easing portfolio outflows and tighter forex measures should help stabilize the rupiah. They expect the currency outlook to improve, forecasting the dollar to trade in the 17,600-18,000 rupiah range over the next 12 months. Upcoming policy announcements, including the 2027 state budget, will be key to restoring investor confidence through a more disciplined fiscal approach, they reckon. However, a rate hike later this month can't be ruled out if external risks intensify. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2139 ET - The PBOC's statement on its 2Q monetary policy committee meeting points to "limited appetite" for near-term broad-based easing of monetary policy, says Xinquan Chen of Goldman Sachs Research. China's central bank reiterated a "measured easing stance" though it seems to have acknowledged softer economic momentum, the economist says in a research report. GS maintains its baseline view of no policy rate or reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2026. "Near-term policy support is more likely to come through faster fiscal policy implementation, ample interbank liquidity and targeted credit easing," Chen adds. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2114 ET - The Thai baht is "particularly vulnerable" to higher oil prices and rising U.S. Treasury yields, MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan says in a research report. This is partly owing to the baht's "relatively low carry profile," the senior currency analyst says. "As such, the near-term bias remains for further USD/THB upside," Chan adds. The dollar is 0.1% higher at 33.47 baht, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2114 ET - The Bank of Korea is likely to signal a gradual pace of rate increases after it raises its base rate to 2.75% from 2.50% at the policy meeting next week, Citigroup's Jin-Wook Kim says. The economist expects BOK Gov. Shin Hyun-song to signal 25-basis-point hikes each quarter in 2H of 2026, while maintaining a data-dependent approach without any specific guidance for 1H of 2027. Citi expects the BOK to raise rates in July and October this year and again in January and April next year. The BOK could also highlight upside risks to its 2026 growth forecast, citing an upward revision to 1Q growth and resilient economic activity in 2Q, Kim adds. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

2017 ET - Japanese stocks are higher in early trade after renewed concerns about the Iran conflict triggered sell-offs on Wednesday. Chip and other electronics stocks are leading the gains. Kioxia Holdings is up 6.5%, Advantest is up 4.9% and Murata Manufacturing is 4.5% higher. The dollar is at 162.39 yen, compared with Y162.20 as of Wednesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching developments in the Middle East and crude oil prices after President Trump announced the end of an eight-week ceasefire. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 1.4% at 67773.59. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

2014 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in early trade, but may be weighed by Middle East tensions. U.S. military forces launched new strikes on Iran Wednesday, hours after President Trump said the eight-week ceasefire had ended. "Renewed geopolitical risks pose a near-term headwind" for the Australian dollar against the greenback, CBA's Samara Hammoud says in a research report. "However, the costs of returning to war remain high and incentivise the U.S. and Iran to stick to the ceasefire," the international economist and currency strategist adds. The Australian dollar edges 0.1% higher to US$0.6937, while the U.S. dollar is 0.3% lower at 1,500.30 won, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2011 ET - JGBs fall in the morning Tokyo session, tracking overnight price declines in U.S. Treasurys. Both JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. JGB prices are also likely being weighed on by rising crude oil prices, which may fuel domestic inflation worries and hasten rate increases by the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, investor focus is on the Japan Finance Ministry's auction Thursday of about 2.5 trillion yen of 5-year sovereign notes. The 5-year JGB yield is "again nearing the 2% threshold marked in mid-May," says SMBC Nikko Securities' Lisa Mochizuki in a research report. "This should be supportive, so we expect the auction to clear smoothly," the junior analyst says. The 10-year JGB yield rises 1.5 bps to 2.880%, the highest intraday level since September 1996. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1949 ET - Japanese stocks may rise after renewed concerns about the Iran conflict triggered sell-offs on Wednesday. Nikkei futures are up 1.4% at 67885 on the SGX. The dollar is at 162.56 yen, compared with Y162.20 as of Wednesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in the Middle East and crude oil prices after President Trump announced the end of an eight-week ceasefire. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 2.1% to 66819.05 on Wednesday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)

1548 ET - Treasury yields rise amid renewed hostilities in the Middle East. President Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is over, driving oil prices up 5% and reviving inflation concerns. Fed minutes provide little certainty about the future of interest rates, with officials expressing mixed views. A 10-year Treasury auction has yield near market levels, indicating firm demand. Weekly jobless claims are forecast to increase to 218,000 from 215,000, in a WSJ survey. June existing home sales growth is expected to slow to 0.7% from May's 3.2%. The 10-year yield rises 0.038 percentage point, to 4.567%. The two-year adds 0.040 p.p., to 4.200%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1455 ET - The AI build-out creates an uncertain scenario for officials as they balance the risks between waiting for a larger productivity payoff and addressing any inflation pressures it may create in the short-term. Mentions of AI increased in June's Fed minutes. "Many participants noted that ongoing strong demand for AI infrastructure would likely sustain upward pressure on prices for technology products and electricity," the minutes said. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1444 ET - The Fed June meeting minutes showed that all participants supported maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate (which is 3.5-3.75%). Regarding the labor market, participants considered conditions to appear stable. At the time, the Fed had on hand the May jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy adding 172,000 jobs in May in a broader range of sectors. In the minutes 'several' participants said they did not see the policy stance as restrictive, while a few other participants commented that they saw the current policy stance as slightly restrictive. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1419 ET - In the minutes of June's Fed meeting, officials showed a mixed outlook for monetary policy amid economic uncertainty. In the minutes, "many" participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate (in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%) would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year. "Many" other participants, however, assessed that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be above the current target range at the end of this year.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 08, 2026 21:43 ET (01:43 GMT)

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