The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1014 ET - Sterling rises to a fresh one-year high against the euro, extending its recent gains following a recent easing of U.K. political concerns. Andy Burnham is expected to succeed Keir Starmer as the U.K.'s prime minister on July 20 with no other apparent challengers to his leadership bid. "The relatively smooth transition will come as a relief to markets," Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. "Also, the popularity of Burnham within Labour may also be a good omen given the deep party factions which Starmer was unable to effectively control." The euro falls to as low as 0.8529 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1006 ET - Home price growth is now expected to slow to just 1.2% in 2026,Realtor.com says. That's a slower pace than originally forecast, and one that fails to keep pace with inflation, meaning home prices are effectively declining in real terms. The cooldown on home price growth comes as a resilient economy has kept mortgage rates high, offsetting rate relief seen earlier in the year. Realtor.com has also trimmed its 2026 existing-home sales forecast to 4.10 million, down from the 4.13 million projected in December, though the number of sales is still expected to grow 1.0% over 2025, as momentum builds in the second half of the year. Rental prices, meanwhile, are on track to fall again in 2026. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

0948 ET - The typical luxury home costs less than $1 million in five of the top 49 most populous metros, Redfin says. That's down from eight in 2025. The most affordable metro for buying a high-end home is Detroit, where the median sale price for a luxury home was $719,252 in May, 47.7% less than the typical luxury home nationwide. Detroit is joined by Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and San Antonio as the only major metros where the median luxury home costs less than $1 million. Fast home price growth pushed Indianapolis and St. Louis across the $1 million threshold, having seen high-end home prices rise 9% and 10.9%, respectively, over the past year. Nationwide, the median luxury home sale price is $1,374,470, up 4.7% from last year, according to Redfin. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

0925 ET - The Polish zloty stays weaker against the euro after the National Bank of Poland left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% as expected. Recent data showed inflation eased to 2.5% in June, although underlying inflation remains elevated. "The decline in inflation has largely been driven by normalizing oil prices and unexpectedly sharp falls in food prices," ING's Frantisek Taborsky says in a note. "Core inflation remains close to 3%." While NBP Governor Adam Glapinski might take a loose policy stance at Thursday's press conference, the debate over potential rate cuts should only gather momentum after the summer, he says. The euro rises 0.3% to 4.3049 zloty, having reached a 19-month high of 4.3160 ahead of the decision, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0919 ET - Today the Federal Reserve releases its minutes from the June meeting--the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Some economists predict the minutes will be much shorter, especially after the policy statement was more concise. While the minutes are somewhat backward looking for investors, they may provide insight into how the committee was thinking about inflation risks, especially as the conflict in Iran pushed headline inflation higher due to increased energy prices. Just last week, Warsh said his first weeks in the job have seen risks of higher inflation recede. According to CME FedWatch, markets are still pricing in a 38.5% chance of a rate hike by the end of this year.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0846 ET - Bonds sell off around the globe and yields rise as President Trump says he's done negotiating with Iran while hostilities flare up once again over the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices jump more than 4% and inflation expectations edge higher. The WSJ Dollar Index is flat following a sharp increase overnight when Trump made his comment in Ankara. Fed minutes this afternoon will be scrutinized to hints on how hawkish the central bank is leaning. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.565%, up from yesterday's 4.529% settle. The two-year rises to 4.195% from 4.161%. Both are off overnight highs. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0824 ET - Markets could face higher volatility for the remainder of 2026 as oil prices rise and supply falls, Algebris Investments' Gabriele Foa says in a note. Renewed U.S.-Iran attacks and President Trump's announcement that the Iran ceasefire is over raise fresh concerns about a potential oil-supply shock. Higher oil prices, lower global oil supply and renewed instability in interest rates could cause markets to be more volatile, Foa says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0812 ET - The European Union's vote to approve the bloc's trade agreement with Mexico is an important step, especially for Germany, Hildegard Mueller, president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, says. "About 70% of all jobs in our industry are supported by exports. That is the foundation of our prosperity," Mueller says. With the future of the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade deal facing uncertainty, Mueller says that Stronger economic cooperation between Europe and Mexico sends a clear signal of stability, diversification, and resilient trans-Atlantic value chains. With the approval, a major hurdle has been cleared, she says. It is now crucial to move forward swiftly with the remaining procedures at the European and national levels, she adds. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)

0808 ET - The Swedish krona is looking cheap as low interest rates continue to undermine the currency, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes says in a note. "In real effective terms, the krona is 6% above its 2023 lows, but it has lost 18% in real terms over the last 20 years." Data on Wednesday showed the consumer price index with fixed interest rate eased to 1.3% in June, arguing against the Riksbank raising rates. However, growth accelerated to 3.9% in May. Sweden's economic outperformance relative to the eurozone could attract capital inflows and eventually have an impact on inflation, he says. The euro trades flat at 11.0564 krona after earlier reaching a one-week high of 11.0968, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0725 ET - Yields on U.K. 10-year government bonds, or gilts, jump to their highest level since May 21 due to inflation concerns as U.S.-Iran tensions flare up again. President Trump announced on Wednesday that the Iran ceasefire deal is over, causing oil prices to advance and inflation concerns to return. Investors are also worried about the state of future U.K. public finances ahead of the appointment of a new leader after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said in June he would step down. Andy Burnham, the frontrunner to succeed Starmer, has announced ambitious plans that could make it difficult for the government to maintain strict fiscal rules, Ebury's Matthew Ryan says in a note. Ten-year gilt yields hit a 6.5-week high of 4.960%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0609 ET - The cost of euro-denominated credit default protection climbs due to risk-off sentiment as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate. The U.S. fired airstrikes on Iran on Tuesday, raising concerns about renewed Middle East conflict, and Trump said Wednesday that the ceasefire was over. The fresh attacks are causing investors to "reassess geopolitical risks after several weeks of pricing in a smooth path toward de-escalation," Capital.com's Daniela Hathorn says in a note. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps rises 5 basis points to 247 bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0542 ET - Germany's recent reform package is viewed as a positive step by companies, though many argue they could go further, Marion Muehlberger and Ursula Walther at Deutsche Bank say in a note. Last week, the government outlined a package of tax and pension reform while cutting red tape and introducing more flexible labor laws. The move is likely to boost corporate sentiment and improve Germany's economic competitiveness, the analysts say. Still, business associations noted a lack of reforms relating to wage costs and social security contributions, corporate taxation, and greater flexibility in working hours, they say. Moving forward, the government's ability to carry out reforms will remain in focus. "Swift implementation over the course of autumn is key," they say. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 08, 2026 10:14 ET (14:14 GMT)

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