The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0338 GMT - The impact of potentially higher rates on metals and mining stocks appears largely priced in, according to Jefferies. It thinks mining share prices can begin to outperform again even if rate expectations gradually rise. The Stoxx Europe 600 Basic Resources index has underperformed the S&P by 12% since mid-June, when there was a hawkish pivot from new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, it says. "The risk would be if the demand outlook materially erodes relative to expectations," Jefferies says. But that's not what the bank is anticipating. Jefferies expects metals prices to be supported by U.S.-led industrial demand. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2332 GMT - Oil rises in early Asian trade amid renewed supply-disruption fears. The U.S. struck sites along Iran's coast and blocked its ability to sell oil legally on Tuesday in response to Tehran's recent attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway. These "attacks are a reminder of the risks that the oil industry faces despite the peace deal allowing the safe passage of vessels," ANZ Research analysts say in a research report. "It's likely to cause heightened unease within the shipping industry, which was already reluctant to commit vessels returning to the Persian Gulf," the analysts add. Front-month WTI crude oil futures rose 2.8% to $72.39 per barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2102 GMT - The U.S. revocation of Iran's authorization to sell oil sends crude prices to a near two-week high. "That's a big take-back by the Trump administration," says John Kilduff of Again Capital. The waiver contributed to the selloff in oil and the idea that the market would become oversupplied. "It had suddenly freed up a lot of Iranian barrels that were on the water and Iran moved out a lot of supply over the last couple of weeks to try to take advantage of that." The Trump administration was relishing lower oil prices, and now it could go back off the rails, Kilduff adds. "We'll see if they don't go back on this after some more discussions." WTI rises 5.3%, to $72.21 a barrel, and Brent gains 5.4%, to $75.88. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1957 GMT - The U.S. government's revocation of its authorization for Iran to sell oil following Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz sends crude futures higher as it implies near-term supply will now be tighter than had been expected, says Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial. "The supply that it looked like was coming to the market is definitely going to be lessened by the canceling of the agreement." The flip in WTI back into backwardation--where forward months are cheaper than front month--is accelerating short-covering by traders, he adds. WTI is up 4.7%, at $71.80 a barrel, and Brent is 5.1% higher, at $75.67 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1934 GMT - Oil futures are sharply higher as the U.S. revokes Iran's license to sell oil in response to Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil was part of an agreement reached last month that reopened the strait as the two sides negotiate a peace deal. The resumption in tanker transit through the strait had pushed oil prices back toward pre-conflict levels. WTI is up 5.3% at $72.20 a barrel and Brent rises 5.6% to $75.99. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1924 GMT - U.S. natural gas futures edge up in rangebound trading with strong power-sector demand to meet air conditioning needs offset by adequate supply. The EIA said it expects natural gas consumption for power generation to set a record next year on rising electricity demand, expansion of the gas-fired generating fleet and relatively low natural gas prices. "Average consumption in the sector rises by 2% in 2026 and by another 4% in 2027 to 38.1 billion cubic feet per day," the agency says in its latest outlook. That includes a projected monthly record of 50.6 Bcf/d in July of next year. Nymex natural gas settles up 0.6% at $3.265/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

Oil futures rise as Iran attacks vessels on the U.S.-backed Omani side of Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about Iran's efforts to assert control over the waterway. If peace negotiations falter or another disruption hits before inventories recover, markets could quickly find themselves under pressure again, Ellen Fraser, an energy analyst at consulting firm Baringa says in a note. There's political and economic pressure for oil flows to continue, she says. "Iran needs a huge amount of money to rebuild the country, and that money will come through oil flows. And President Trump needs those flows to resume given the upcoming midterms and the political capital that it's costing him in the U.S." WTI settles up 2.8% at $70.44 a barrel and Brent gains 3% to $74.16. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

The drop in crude oil prices should lower average U.S. retail gasoline prices to $3.80 a gallon in 3Q from $4.20 in 2Q, the EIA says in its latest outlook. But in the near term, "we expect the crude oil-driven decrease in gasoline prices will be partly offset by rising wholesale and retail margins as low gasoline inventories keep gasoline crack spreads elevated," the EIA says. As inventories rebuild and the summer driving season ends, however, refiner margins will narrow pushing gasoline down to $3.40 a gallon in 4Q, according to the forecast. The agency expects gasoline consumption in the second half of this year to remain below the five-year average as a result of higher prices and economic conditions. For 2027, the EIA projects gasoline prices to average $3.09 a gallon. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1803 GMT - The share of Canada's U.S.-bound exports is trending lower. Scotiabank's Mitch Villeneuve and John Fanjoy note the proportion averaged 76% in 2024 and 72% in 2025, and came in at 70% in May 2026. The shift has been driven by a decline in most exports to the U.S. and increasing shipments to other regions, especially Europe. Canadian exports heading to the U.S. in May rose 1.5% on-month and were up 9.3% compared with 2024, following three straight months of growth driven by higher oil prices, Villeneuve and Fanjoy say. Exports to non-U.S. countries dropped 0.3% on-month, but were up 49.5% from 2024. On the import side, the share of Canadian imports from the U.S. has gradually fallen to 58% in May from an average of 62% in 2024, the pair say. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1139 GMT - The war-related spike on oil prices, coupled with heavy artificial-intelligence capital expenditure, makes interest rates likely to remain elevated, AllianceBernstein's Scott DiMaggio says. "We don't think the Fed's going to hike, but it's a more challenging environment for them to cut." Crude prices have eased from recent peaks, but DiMaggio says the damage for inflation is done, making it hard to cut. Investment in AI, meanwhile, should keep debt issuance high and boost economic growth. "We've had what, four quarters in a row of upward revisions to the capex expenditure expenditures, and now we're looking at like $1.6 trillion over the next four years," he says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1521 GMT - Canadian trade flows continue to be shaped by the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, though the broader expectation remains that trade will become less of a drag on Canadian growth than it was in 2025 as the international environment gradually stabilizes, Royal Bank of Canada's Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen say. The country's goods-trade surplus widened to about C$4.2 billion in May from the prior month's revised C$3.4 billion, as exports rose 0.9% and imports fell 0.2%. The economists say export volumes excluding price effects fell 0.5% for the month but are still tracking a large increase in the second quarter as a whole. Import volumes edged lower as well, albeit mainly thanks to a pullback in gold imports, Xu and Janzen say. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1425 GMT - A further widening of Canada's goods-trade surplus to a four-year high isn't as good as it first looks, since exports in volume terms were essentially unchanged, says Capital Economics' Ariane Curtis. She believes the only positive is that the rise in import volumes for May suggests domestic demand is gradually improving. Curtis adds the trade data look to be consistent with the flash estimate of a modest 0.1% on-month rise in GDP for May. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 07, 2026 23:38 ET (03:38 GMT)

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