Why CORSIA credit supply debates always start with the wrong question

Fastmarkets

Jul 02

Does the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) have sufficient supplies of credits to function effectively? Ask three market participants and you are likely to ...

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Open an account to enjoy low commission trading today!","ogImage":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/portal5/static/media/og-logo.0a0bd8dc.png","ogUrl":"https://www.gotigerhk.com/news/2648638594"},"companyName":"Tiger Brokers"},"pageData":{"isMobile":false,"isTiger":false,"isTTM":true,"region":"HKG","license":"TBHK","edition":"fundamental"},"isCrawlerRequest":true,"__swrFallback__":{"@#url:\"https://stock-news.skytigris.cn/v3/news\",params:#id:\"2648638594\",edition:\"fundamental\",auth_exemption:1,,,undefined,":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2648638594?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-07-02 12:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2648638594","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Why CORSIA credit supply debates always start with the wrong question","media":"Fastmarkets","content":"<div>\n<p>Does the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) have sufficient supplies of credits to function effectively? Ask three market participants and you are likely to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/why-corsia-credit-supply-debates-always-start-with-the-wrong-question/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fastmarkets_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why CORSIA credit supply debates always start with the wrong question</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy CORSIA credit supply debates always start with the wrong question\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-02 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/why-corsia-credit-supply-debates-always-start-with-the-wrong-question/><strong>Fastmarkets</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Does the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) have sufficient supplies of credits to function effectively? Ask three market participants and you are likely to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/why-corsia-credit-supply-debates-always-start-with-the-wrong-question/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"ETS","symbol_name":"Elite Express Holding Inc.","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/why-corsia-credit-supply-debates-always-start-with-the-wrong-question/","article_id":"2648638594","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"fastmarkets_highlight","url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/why-corsia-credit-supply-debates-always-start-with-the-wrong-question/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2648638594","pubTimestamp":1782964800,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"fastmarkets_highlight","name":"Fastmarkets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"With CP1 spot prices down to $9.50 and airlines still holding back, the real debate is about which layer of CORSIA credit supply the market is pricing, from theoretical potential to the credits airlines can actually buy.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"fastmarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"ETS":"Elite Express Holding Inc.","BK4232":"货物陆运","EPV":"ProShares UltraShort MSCI Europe"},"translate_title":"为什么CORSIA信贷供应辩论总是从错误的问题开始","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"EPV":0.9,"ETS":1},"content_text":"Does the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) have sufficient supplies of credits to function effectively? Ask three market participants and you are likely to receive three different answers.\nOne will point to roughly 38 million eligible emissions units (EEUs) already tagged for Phase 1 compliance and argue that the market is adequately supplied. Another will cite airline demand forecasts of 200-230 million EEUs and warn of a structural shortfall. And a third will point to hundreds of millions of tonnes that could theoretically be generated under approved methodologies and argue that scarcity concerns are overblown.\nEach argument is defensible because each describes a different stage of the CORSIA credit supply chain.\nThat confusion, more than any single policy development or airline procurement decision, may be the most important story in the CORSIA market today.\nFastmarkets assessed CP1 spot credits at $9.50 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) on Wednesday June 24, down from more than $20.00 per tCO2e in late 2025. And prices have continued to fall even as the three arguments are deployed – with developers warning of future shortages, governments launching new initiatives to unlock supply and industry groups publishing demand forecasts that dwarf current availability.\nBut the apparent contradictions reflect the fact that CORSIA credit supply is not a single figure but a chain stretching from theoretical project potential to compliance-ready credits.\n\nFive layers of CORSIA credit supply\nThe starting point is that supply is not a single number, it is a pipeline. And every stage reduces the volume that ultimately reaches an airline’s compliance account.\nAt its widest sits theoretical supply: the credits that could be generated under approved CORSIA methodologies. Some developers put this figure above 800 million tonnes. But that bears little relationship to what airlines can actually buy before January 2028.\nNarrower still is forecast-eligible issuance. Fastmarkets analysts project around 107 million tCO2e of cumulative CP1-eligible issuance by the end of 2027 as a base case – a figure grounded in current project pipelines, but one that still assumes that authorizations, corresponding adjustments and registry processes proceed broadly on schedule.\nThe next layer is deliverable supply: the credits expected to complete authorization, insurance, tagging and commercial transactions in time for compliance. The size of that pool remains uncertain and will depend on how authorization, issuance and other compliance processes unfold over the coming years.\nCurrent tagged supply amounts to roughly 38 million EEUs already carrying CP1 labels and available, in principle, right now.\nCutting across all of the above is a fifth category that is now taking shape: EU-eligible supply – representing credits that may satisfy future European eligibility requirements, but as yet remain undefined. The European Commission sent around a draft concept note in the second quarter of this year that suggested tightening eligible CORSIA supply for European airlines on quality grounds.\nThe figures below are not alternative estimates of the same supply pool. They describe different stages in the journey from theoretical project potential to airline compliance. Comparing them directly risks overstating or understating the supply ultimately available to airlines.\n\n\n\nCORSIA – the five layers of supply\n\n\n\n\nSupply category\nWhat it means\nCurrent reference point\n\n\n\n\nTheoretical supply\nPotential volumes under approved CORSIA methodologies\n800+ million tCO2e*\n\n\nForecast Phase 1 eligible issuance\nFastmarkets Analytics base-case cumulative CP1-eligible issuance by end-2027\n~107 million tCO2e\n\n\nDeliverable supply\nThe subset of forecast issuance expected to complete authorization, corresponding adjustments, insurance, tagging and commercial transactions in time for compliance\nUncertain; could fall short of or exceed current forecasts, depending on how quickly authorization and registry processes move\n\n\nTagged supply\nCredits already carrying CP1 labels\n~38 million EEUs\n\n\nEU-eligible supply\nCredits that may satisfy future European eligibility requirements, which remain undefined\nUncertain\n\n\n\n*Illustrative estimate cited by market participants based on current approved methodologies; not a forecast of credits expected to reach the market.\nSource: Fastmarkets\n\n\nWhen one market participant cites 38 million tagged units and another warns of a 200 million unit shortfall, they are not disagreeing; they are looking at different rows of the same table.\nCommodity markets rarely price theoretical supply. The oil market distinguishes between resources, reserves and production, while the metals market distinguishes between geological potential, reserves and refined inventories. In each case, what matters is not how much could exist, but how much can actually be delivered when buyers need it.\nCORSIA is increasingly developing a similar hierarchy. The relevant question is no longer simply how many credits can be generated under approved methodologies, it is how many credits will successfully move through authorization, corresponding adjustments, insurance, tagging and commercial transactions before reaching an airline’s compliance account.\n\nWhere CORSIA credit supply is lost\nThree developments in June show where credits can disappear between the forecast and the airline.\n\n\n🇰🇪\nKenya\nSovereign policy\nPrior base case ~30 Mt → now available up to 10 Mt\n\n\n🇨🇱\nChile\nAdministrative bandwidth\nReview capacity has not kept pace with requests\n\n\n🇳🇬\nNigeria\nPost-authorization steps\nAuthorized ~5.2 Mt → expected into Phase 1 ~3.4 Mt\n\n\nKenya announced it would make available up to 10 million tonnes of Article 6.2-authorized credits for international transfer through 2030, well below the Fastmarkets analysts’ previous base-case estimate of around 30 million tonnes of potential export capacity.\nThe difference reflects a sovereign policy decision rather than a project constraint. Kenya has the technical capacity to authorize more credits, but doing so risks cannibalizing progress toward its own Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).\nThe lower-than-expected figure reinforced a growing perception among market participants that host countries are becoming more cautious as they balance carbon market participation against domestic climate commitments.\nThe challenge is compounded by the mismatch between CORSIA’s compliance timeline and country specific NDC cycles. Airlines must surrender Phase 1 units by January 2028, while current NDC commitments run through 2030, creating additional uncertainty around how much supply governments are willing to authorize.\nChile has described the same constraint from a different angle. Officials there told Fastmarkets that authorization requests from developers continue to grow, but the governments capacity to review methodologies and supporting documentation has not kept pace. The bottleneck is not political will, but administrative bandwidth.\nNigeria offers a third variant. Clean cooking companies BURN and Key Carbon recently secured authorization covering approximately 5.2 million tCO2e. Key Carbon said it currently expects to deliver around 3.4 million tCO2e into Phase 1, illustrating that authorization is only one step in the process.\nIssuance schedules, insurance structures and tagging requirements still need to be completed before credits reach compliance buyers.\nTaken together, the three examples point to the same conclusion: the gap between forecast issuance and deliverable supply is shaped not only by project pipelines but by sovereign decisions, administrative capacity, insurance structures and commercial timing.\n\nWhy CORSIA credit prices keep falling\nUnderstanding the supply stack makes the price decline easier to explain, however.\nPrices are not falling because the market has resolved the supply debate. They are falling because the airlines are not buying. And until procurement begins in earnest, demand matters more than distinctions between different layers of supply.\nAlthough CORSIA’s first compliance phase covers emissions from 2024 to 2026, airlines do not need to surrender eligible emissions units until January 2028. That gap creates a strong incentive to defer procurement while prices remain under pressure and policy questions remain unresolved.\nOne market participant told Fastmarkets it was all about the absence of end-user demand.\n“As supply has increased, demand has not responded in kind,” the market participant said.\nForward markets reinforce the same picture. The ICE December 2026 CORSIA contract was around $9.15 per tCO2e in late June, slightly below prevailing spot levels – suggesting that buyers see little reason to pay for future supply despite continuing discussions on longer-term supply constraints.\nThe result is a self-reinforcing loop. Airlines wait for policy clarity while developers continue bringing available volumes to market. If prices remain weak, however, future investment could slow and some projects may choose alternative demand channels instead of CORSIA.\n\nWhy European airlines are holding back\nEuropean uncertainty has amplified the dynamic. Market participants said procurement decisions are being delayed not only because of the European Commission’s July 15 review of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), which could extend the ETS to cover international departing flights, but also because European airlines are waiting for guidance on future EU CORSIA eligibility criteria. Until those criteria are clearer, European carriers have little incentive to commit capital.\nMarket participants also cited rising jet fuel prices as another reason procurement has remained subdued, with airlines prioritizing more immediate operational costs while CORSIA compliance remains more than 18 months away.\n\nWhere demand is starting to appear\nSome signs of airline demand have begun to emerge, however. Japan Airlines and Singapore Airlines have already completed compliance retirements, while LATAM Airlines is in talks to source around 2.8 million CORSIA-eligible credits from Argentina’s Misiones province, subject to project issuance and federal approvals.\nBut market participants said these remain isolated transactions rather than evidence of a broad-based pick-up in procurement. Most airlines are still waiting for greater policy clarity, particularly in Europe, along with more confidence over future supply before committing meaningful volumes.\nSeveral market participants said they expect procurement to accelerate once policy uncertainty is resolved, although there is less consensus over when non-European airlines will begin buying.\n\nWhere developers are feeling the strain\nSome developers are beginning to show signs of pressure. Offers for certain Madagascar cookstove credits have been heard around prevailing spot levels, with sources indicating that some participants may be prioritising near-term cashflow.\n“Prices are already testing uneconomical levels for some developers. I would not be surprised if some are making a loss simply to bring cash through the door,” one market participant told Fastmarkets, adding that project-specific credits continue to attract interest from buyers seeking diversified compliance portfolios even as generic CP1 prices remain under pressure.\nMost buying activity so far has come from intermediaries building positions ahead of broader airline procurement later in the compliance cycle, sources told Fastmarkets, which suggests that prices are still being shaped more by intermediary positioning than airline compliance demand.\n\nThe auction that exposed the CORSIA credit supply disconnect\nFew recent events better capture today’s market than the auction of CP1-labelled credits from Cambodia’s VCS 3052 water purification project in the last week of May.\nThe auction attracted strong buyer interest and was oversubscribed. But no credits were traded and all bids fell below the reserve price.\nThe outcome revealed a market where buyers and sellers are present but remain fundamentally divided on value. Buyers bidding below the reserve price appeared to be betting that additional deliverable supply will arrive before the airlines begin purchasing in earnest.\nSellers, by contrast, appeared to believe that buyers will eventually have to pay more for deliverable supply.\nThe auction’s failure to clear any volumes did not reflect an absence of demand, however. Rather, it reflected the disagreement over which supply buyers are willing to pay for.\n\nWhich layer of CORSIA credit supply is IATA trying to unlock?\nSpeakers also highlighted the growing importance of quality benchmarks in attracting institutional capital.\nDonald Chan, Asia-Pacific director at the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM), said initiatives such as the Core Carbon Principles (CCPs) are helping establish common standards across jurisdictions and improving confidence among buyers and investors.\nBut he argued that a more immediate challenge lies in financing project development.\nLarge corporations and governments are seeking growing volumes of high-integrity credits, while many project developers continue to face funding constraints and rising compliance costs.\n“The buyers are large and well-funded, while many project developers remain relatively small,” Chan said, adding that the market must find ways to channel more capital toward project creation if supply is to keep pace with demand.\n\nRegional cooperation could widen supply\n\nIf falling prices suggest growing market comfort with future supplies, the recent actions of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) point in a different direction.\nEarlier this month, IATA expanded its Supporting Alliance for CORSIA Eligible Emissions Unit Supply, bringing additional host governments into an initiative alongside airlines, developers, standards bodies and market infrastructure providers. The alliance has set a target of making 225-250 million EEUs available by spring 2027.\nThe more important question is not how many credits the alliance hopes to unlock, but which layer of the supply stack it is actually targeting. IATA’s target of making 225-250 million EEUs available by spring 2027 refers to tagged supply, the same category that currently totals roughly 38 million units.\n\n\nTagged supply today\n\n\n~38M EEUs\n\nIATA alliance target by spring 2027\n\n\n225–250M EEUs\n\nSource: Fastmarkets\n\n\nThe alliance is seeking to expand that pool by helping host countries accelerate authorizations and corresponding adjustments. Those are the same sovereign bottlenecks illustrated by recent developments in Kenya, Chile and Nigeria.\nIn other words, IATA is not trying to create more theoretical supply. It is trying to convert a much larger share of the roughly 107 million tCO2e of forecast issuance into tagged, usable EEUs by accelerating the sovereign processes that have so far left tagged supply at a fraction of that figure.\nLuke Leslie, chief executive of Key Carbon, compared the market to commodity cycles, arguing that prolonged periods of weak prices discourage future investment and could set the stage for sharper corrections once demand accelerates.\n“The longer the prices remain lower, the more violent that price response is [likely to be],” he said.\nLeslie also argued that many market participants underestimate the complexity of moving credits through authorization, insurance, corresponding adjustments and tagging.\n“It is much harder than people anticipate to get all the way through,” he added.\nNot everyone shares that view, however, and one trader argued that the authorization processes are steadily improving and that the market has demonstrated an ability to deliver supply that will only grow as policy frameworks mature in origination countries. The disagreement, between those who believe deliverable supply will arrive and those who believe the pipeline is more fragile than prices currently imply, sits at the heart of the debate.\nZimbabwe provides another example. Recent developments there illustrate how ICAO eligibility alone does not guarantee market availability. The country’s evolving registry and approval framework shows how additional domestic processes can emerge even after projects satisfy international eligibility requirements, adding further steps before credits ultimately reach airline buyers.\n\nEurope is redefining supply, not reducing it\nThe European Commission’s forthcoming review adds another dimension.\nWhatever eligibility criteria Brussels ultimately establishes will not change how many credits are generated, authorized or tagged. But they will determine which of those credits European airlines can actually use for compliance – and European carriers represent around 27 million tCO2e of forecasted Phase 1 demand, or around 10-15%.\nIf the Commission applies meaningful quality filters, the market will not lose aggregate supply. Instead, it will narrow the pool of credits available to European airlines. Current draft concept proposals include excluding high forest low deforestation credits and applying tighter quality criteria to cookstove supply.\nA portion of today’s tagged supply would no longer qualify for European airlines. Generic CP1 credits could remain usable outside the EU framework, while EU-eligible supply becomes a smaller and potentially more expensive subset.\nThat uncertainty is itself affecting procurement decisions and buyers that anticipate tighter EU criteria have a rational incentive to wait before committing capital.\nIf the current concept note were adopted, it would eliminate almost all of today’s tagged supply for European airlines. Fastmarkets’ latest supply forecasts nevertheless suggest that EU-aligned supply would still exceed the trading bloc’s projected demand of around 27 million tCO2e.\nThat does not necessarily mean European airlines would have abundant supply. The same credits would also remain available to airlines outside Europe, meaning European carriers could still have to pay a premium to secure them.\n\nWhat $9.50 per tCO2e is actually pricing\nOne interpretation of $9.50 per tCO2e is that the market is pricing CORSIA credit supply appropriately. Supply is continuing to reach the market, authorization processes are gradually improving and the airlines have until January 2028 to comply. Under this view, prices simply reflect a market where near-term demand remains well below available supply.\nAnother view is that the market is underestimating what comes next. Low prices discourage investment at precisely the moment when future supply needs to be secured. Host-country authorizations remain uncertain, administrative bottlenecks have yet to be resolved and future methodology changes could reduce issuance from important project categories.\nAnd when procurement accelerates, the credits that matter will be the ones that have moved all the way through the chain, past tagging and into deliverable supply – not simply those counted as forecast issuance or theoretical potential.\nBoth views have serious supporters and both have evidence. But what the current price clearly shows is that the airlines are not buying. What it cannot show is how much of the forecast supply stack will successfully navigate authorizations, sovereign decisions, administrative constraints, insurance and European eligibility requirements before January 2028.\nSo the market’s central question has shifted. It is not whether CORSIA has enough supply, but which stage of the CORSIA credit supply chain the current price is actually reflecting.\n\n\n\n\n\nKnow what CORSIA-eligible supply is worth before 2027 demand lands\n\nThe demand and supply gap has a price. Fastmarkets tracks it through independent CORSIA assessments built for compliance decisions\n\n\nRequest demo","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}