MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

EU euro area monetary developments, business & consumer surveys; U.K. money and credit; trading updates from Naspers, Prosus

Opening Call:

European stock futures traded higher early Monday. Asian stock benchmarks were mostly higher; the dollar was steady; Treasury yields edged higher; oil futures rose; while gold fell.

Equities:

Stock futures point to a higher open at the start of the week after the U.S. and Iran have agreed to end days of back-and-forth fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and resume peace talks.

Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell during the tit-for-tat strikes, slowing the recovery of a waterway through which 20% of the world's crude oil once flowed. A U.S. official said vessels would now move freely.

Forex:

The fragile U.S.-Iran truce, which is mostly centered on ensuring the continued reopening of the Strait, has kept risk sentiment subdued, UOB said.

"The weekend re-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions adds to the risk-off tone," OCBC said.

Bonds:

The Federal Reserve under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, sounds serious about getting back to 2% inflation. The guarded tone seems to be enough - for now - to soothe nerves in the $30 trillion Treasury market. This comes despite inflation data for May showing the current rate is more than double the Fed's target.

"His tough talk helps," said Steven Blitz, chief economist at GlobalData TS Lombard. Warsh signaled that he won't cut rates to please the White House or let inflation fly, which is helping pull Treasury yields lower, Blitz said. "That makes a big difference."

Energy:

Oil rose amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that Iran is assuming sole authority over the strait.

"The market is likely to re-evaluate its assumption of a quick recovery of oil supply from the Persian Gulf," ANZ said.

Metals:

Gold fell early Monday. Souring risk sentiment toward AI-related assets has spilled over into commodities including gold, which was among the hardest hit last week, said Capital Economics' Kieran Tompkins. The yellow metal is behaving increasingly like a risky asset, he said, noting prices were volatile on extreme speculation in 4Q last year.

He expects further weakness in gold prices as speculative excess is unwound and equity markets soften, noting that gold's current correlation with the benchmark S&P 500 index is the highest in around 14 years.

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Iron ore edged higher in Asian trading. Concerns are rising over tightening supply from mines in Australia and Brazil, ANZ said. Exports from both countries are declining as disruptions to diesel and gas supplies push up energy costs. This has shifted the industry-wide cost curve higher, establishing a higher near-term price floor, ANZ said.

However, broader demand remains weak, weighed by sluggish consumption and elevated inventories in China, which could pressure prices once supply-side cost support fades.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

U.S. and Iran Agree to Stop Fight Over the Strait of Hormuz

The U.S. and Iran have agreed to end days of back-and-forth fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and resume peace talks, said officials from the U.S. and other countries involved in the negotiations.

The dangerous period of violence that began Thursday disrupted President Trump's attempt to end hostilities with Iran and negotiate a settlement that addresses Tehran's nuclear program. Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell during the tit-for-tat strikes, slowing the recovery of a waterway through which 20% of the world's crude oil once flowed. A U.S. official said vessels would now move freely.

The Trillion-Dollar Borrowing Binge Lifting the Stock Market to Risky Heights

Investors have never been more eager to ratchet up their stock returns through margin loans and funds that amplify gains and losses. It may be a sign of trouble.

U.S. margin debt, or what investors borrow from their brokerages to buy securities, rose 54% to a record $1.4 trillion in May from a year earlier, according to Finra data. Meanwhile, high-risk leveraged exchange-traded funds that produce double or triple the daily move of underlying stocks are growing rapidly, as is trading in options tied to them.

BIS Sees Peril for Economy, Financial System in AI Investment Boom

Fierce competition will dominate artificial intelligence risks driving investment spending to excessive levels, threatening the profitability of leading firms and a sharp reversal that could tip some economies into recession, the Bank for International Settlements said Sunday.

In its annual report on the global economic outlook, the Switzerland-based research and coordinating body for central banks said the five largest "hyperscalers" are on course to devote more than $1 trillion to AI-related capital expenditure in 2025 and 2026.

The AI Startup Challenging Tesla and Waymo in the Race to Automate Driving

Earlier this year, a team of engineers flew to Detroit on a secret mission to make Jeep Grand Cherokees drive themselves.

A few weeks later, prototypes were convincing enough for Jeep owner Stellantis to take investors on test rides around Motor City's suburbs and commit to rolling out the technology across America.

Micron is about to be more profitable than any U.S. company except Nvidia and Google

Three years ago, Micron Technology was losing money. Now, it's one of the most profitable companies in the U.S.

That dramatic transformation reflects how essential memory chips have become to the artificial-intelligence wave. Micron MU and its few rivals can't make enough chips to satisfy the demand, and AI companies are willing to pay sky-high prices for what's available.

China Has Matched Anthropic in Cybersecurity, Resetting AI Race

Chinese artificial-intelligence systems have matched the performance of Anthropic's powerful model Mythos in some cybersecurity scenarios, a development poised to reset the global tech race and pressure the White House in its overhaul of U.S. AI policy.

Security researchers said that a new AI model, released this month by China's Zhipu AI, also known as Z.ai, can match the latest U.S. models when it comes to finding security bugs, although it still lags behind Anthropic's and OpenAI's products in other tasks.

Why One of Tech's Biggest Gamblers Is Betting Against Elon Musk's AI Vision

Some people have expressed skepticism about Elon Musk's idea for putting AI data centers in outer space.

But what does it say when even Masa thinks it's too far out there?

Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com

Expected Major Events for Monday

04:30/NED: Jun Producer confidence survey

06:00/SWE: May Foreign trade

07:00/SPN: May Retail Sales

07:00/SVK: Jun Business tendency survey

07:00/SVK: Jun Economic sentiment indicator

07:00/SPN: Jun Flash Estimate CPI

08:00/EU: May Monetary developments in the euro area (M3)

08:30/UK: May Monetary & Financial Statistics

08:30/UK: May Bank of England effective interest rates

08:30/UK: May Money and Credit - Lending to Individuals, Lending to Businesses, Broad Money and Credit

09:00/CYP: Apr Industrial Production Index

09:00/EU: Jun Business & Consumer Surveys - Business Climate Indicator & Economic Sentiment Indicator

09:30/BEL: Jun CPI

10:00/IRL: May Retail Sales Index

10:00/POR: May Retail trade

16:59/SPN: May Budget deficit

17:59/UK: Jun Adzuna UK Job Market Report

23:01/UK: May Zoopla House Price Index

23:01/UK: Jun Shop Price Monitor

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2026 00:03 ET (04:03 GMT)

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