MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

U.K. interest rate decision, unemployment; trading updates from FirstGroup, Tesco, Whitbread

Opening Call:

European stock futures traded mostly lower early Thursday. Asian stock benchmarks were mixed; the dollar gained; Treasury yields were nearly flat; while oil futures and gold weakened.

Equities:

Stock futures were broadly lower in Europe, as investors await Bank of England's interest rate decision. The BOE is widely expected to maintain borrowing costs at 3.75%, following in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve, which held the benchmark federal-funds rate target steady at a range of 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday.

"For the Bank of England, this largely supports a hold at this week's meeting. While energy-related pressures may continue to filter through over time, this reading suggests inflation is not moving materially off track, and gives policymakers more confidence that rates can remain where they are for now," said Ian Corfield, CEO of Secure Trust Bank.

A hold decision from the BOE would mark a divergence from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, both of which raised rates recently.

Forex:

The U.S. dollar gained slightly, supported by expectations of Fed rate increases. The Fed left rates unchanged and removed the easing bias from its policy statement, as expected, CBA's Samara Hammoud said.

However, the updated 'dot plot' indicated the median rate forecast for year-end rising to 3.75% from 3.4% in March, the international economist and currency strategist said. "Around half of FOMC officials expect a rate hike this year," Hammoud added.

Bonds:

U.S. Treasury yields were nearly flat. Sovereign bond prices dropped after the Fed's meeting produced a 'dot plot' that became more hawkish. The Fed's updated quarterly economic projections showed nine of 19 officials forecast at least one rate increase by the end of 2026, up from none in March.

"More Fed officials are looking for tightening this year, and they are not only projecting one rate hike but several," TD Securities' Global Rates, FX & Commodities Strategy said.

Energy:

Oil prices weakened as traders await reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Iran "memorandum of understanding" to end hostilities would see Tehran reopen the strait after the U.S. lifts sanctions on its oil sales. "The energy sector pushed lower amid a concern of a flood of supply," ANZ Research analysts said.

However, "there remain concerns that ship owners will be reluctant to send oil tankers back into the Persian Gulf while there is a risk that the deal falls over," the analysts added.

Metals:

Gold weakened early Thursday. While U.S. and Iran peace efforts have supported prices since the start of the week and helped offset the Fed's signaling of a rate hike later this year, the metal has settled into a relatively tight range, suggesting the recent rally was largely event-driven rather than underpinned by macro shifts, DBS strategist Sherilyn Chew said.

Still, central bank buying is expected to remain robust, which should provide a medium-term floor for prices. DBS expects gold to trade range-bound in the short term, with prices potentially gaining further if bond yields moderate.

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Copper was lower. Prices are likely to remain in a narrow range at high levels, Tongguan Jinyuan Futures said. The metal is hovering at second-quarter peak prices. Analysts note that while investors are monitoring the impact of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, refined copper supply remains tight as the recovery of supply disruptions at mines continues to be slow.

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Spot iron ore was trading lower, likely weighed by concerns about China's steel demand and by lower diesel prices, said Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar. In China, construction remains weak, said Dhar, who thinks a small on-month improvement in new starts will do little to allay fears that the property sector is deteriorating.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Warsh Overhauls How the Fed Talks and Keeps Markets Guessing on Rates

Kevin Warsh used his first meeting as Federal Reserve chairman to put his stamp on how the central bank operates and communicates.

He trimmed its policy statement, declined to submit a rate forecast of his own, and launched five task forces to study everything from how the Fed communicates to how it analyzes the economy-a sweeping reach into how the central bank operates.

Deal Gives Iran Chance to Turbocharge Its Oil Revenue

The U.S.-Iran peace agreement includes a huge boost to Tehran's oil industry, potentially restoring the regime's economic lifeblood while generating more than $60 billion a year of revenue.

The memorandum of understanding allows Iran to sell oil and fuel. Already this week, several oil-laden Iranian tankers have steamed out of port and across the U.S. naval blockade line, an early indication of the rush of anticipated exports.

BOE Expected to Hold Rates as Central Banks React to Iran Peace Hopes

The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates steady on Thursday as central banks around the world take stock of the hoped-for end to the U.S.-Iran conflict.

The Bank of England is widely expected to maintain borrowing costs at 3.75% on Thursday.

Trump Defends Iran Deal, Says He Wants to Avoid 'Economic Catastrophe'

ÉVIAN-LES-BAINS, France-President Trump on Wednesday defended his agreement to end the Iran war, saying he wanted to avoid an "economic catastrophe" that could have resulted if the conflict the U.S. launched had continued.

Trump said he was influenced by the stock market's rise as he worked toward a resolution of the conflict. He said he didn't want to be compared with former President Herbert Hoover, who was president during the 1929 market crash that led to the Great Depression.

Apple to Raise Prices Due to Memory Chip Crunch, Tim Cook Says

Apple plans to raise prices on its products to offset the surging costs of memory and storage chips, Chief Executive Tim Cook said in an exclusive interview with The Wall Street Journal.

"Unfortunately, price increases are unavoidable," he said. "We're doing our best to mitigate the huge increases that are being passed to us, and we've been trying to shield our customers from the increases, but the situation has become unsustainable."

Wall Street Hiring Dilemma: AI Can Model-but Can't Make-the Next Rainmaker

Wall Street's race to deploy artificial intelligence is colliding with executives' fears of upending their workforces and the well-trod path to finding the next masters of the universe.

Already, big banks are touting the productivity gains they are seeing as they roll out AI across departments including legal, wealth management and investment banking. Yet even as other U.S. companies slash thousands of jobs, bank executives are wrestling with how to deal with the looming mismatch in their staffing and shifting talent needs.

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Expected Major Events for Thursday

04:30/NED: May Unemployment

06:00/UK: May UK monthly unemployment figures

06:00/SWI: May Trade Balance

07:30/POR: Apr Balance of Payments

07:30/SWI: Swiss National Bank monetary policy assessment

08:00/EU: Apr Euro area balance of payments

08:00/NOR: Norges Bank monetary policy decision and publication of Monetary Policy Report

08:30/GER: ifo Economic Forecast

09:00/ITA: Apr Balance of Payments

09:00/EU: Apr Construction output

10:00/POR: May PPI

11:00/UK: UK interest rate decision

12:30/CZE: Czech interest rate decision

23:01/UK: Jun UK Consumer Confidence Survey

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 18, 2026 00:00 ET (04:00 GMT)

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