MW Trump to talk up his push to lower costs, as analysts see bruising midterms for GOP due to economic worries

By Victor Reklaitis

President Trump is expected to highlight a tax break for seniors and other affordability-related efforts during a speech in Florida Friday afternoon

U.S. President Donald Trump, shown here at the White House on Thursday, is due to give an economic speech in Florida on Friday afternoon.

President Donald Trump on Friday is slated to give a speech about his efforts to lower taxes and other costs, as analysts predict defeats for his party in November's midterm elections in large part due to voters' affordability concerns.

Trump plans to "highlight his signature 'No Tax on Social Security' policy," White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement. She was referring to the provision in last year's big Republican tax and spending law that created a new $6,000 deduction for seniors that essentially wipes out the tax bill for most Social Security beneficiaries.

"After four years of disaster under Joe Biden, the President and Congressional Republicans are putting more money in families' pockets by cooling inflation, lowering drug costs, expanding access to retirement accounts, and delivering the largest break for seniors in history. President Trump has launched the Golden Age for Americans in their golden years - and the best is yet to come," Kelly said in the statement ahead of Trump's speech, which is due take place around 3 p.m. Eastern time in The Villages, a giant retirement community in central Florida.

But a recent poll of voter sentiment in the country's 36 most competitive House districts suggests many Americans aren't convinced by the Trump team's pitch. That doesn't bode well for Trump and his fellow Republicans ahead of this year's midterm elections, which are six months away.

"Voters aren't buying the argument from Trump and many Republicans that former President Joe Biden is to blame for the weak economy. By a nine-point margin, 50% to 41%, voters in these competitive districts blame Trump and Republicans for the high cost of living," said analysts at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which conducted the poll of battleground House districts that are likely to decide control of that chamber of Congress.

"If these survey results were to be replicated this fall, Democrats would not only net the three seats they need to flip control of the House, but would also put seats that Trump carried by high single and low double-digits in play," CPR's analysts wrote in a report.

Democrats have an edge on tariffs, the economy overall and the cost of living, according to a Cook Political Report poll of battleground House districts.

Democrats have an 84% chance of ending Republican control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November's midterms, along with a 52% likelihood of flipping the U.S. Senate, according to the latest figures from prediction market Polymarket. (Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of MarketWatch.) Midterm elections have been bruising for most modern presidents.

The messaging from Trump White House over the past two months has been "inconsistent" and lacked "any detailed plans on affordability," Chris Krueger, an analyst and managing director at TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, said in a note. That weak messaging has come as promises to address affordability helped bring about Democratic wins in elections last year in New York City, Virginia and other places, Krueger added.

The percentage of Americans who say their financial situation is getting worse has reached 55%, the highest reading in at least 25 years, according a Gallup poll conducted last month. Only 37% of Americans approve of how Trump is handling the U.S. economy, according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls.

Gasoline prices in the U.S. were around $4.26 a gallon on average this week, as a MarketWatch report noted. That's more than a dollar higher than before the Trump administration launched a war on Iran on Feb. 28, a move that sparked big jumps in prices for crude oil (CL00) (BRN00) and its derivatives.

Trump and his allies still have a lot of positive economic indicators that they can highlight. The S&P 500 SPX notched a fresh record close on Thursday, putting the stock gauge up by 20% since Trump's inauguration in January 2025. The U.S. job market has shown surprising strength, as businesses aren't eager to lay off their employees, although they're also not hiring many new workers.

"There's so much news that's as good as you've ever seen, so much progress that's been made," said Kevin Hassett, the director of Trump's National Economic Council, during a Friday morning event hosted by the Investment Company Institute. He praised recent readings on economic growth and durable-goods orders. The administration is "absolutely mindful of the situation in Iran," but "the headline should be that the economic data are doing things you've never seen," Hassett said.

-Victor Reklaitis

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May 01, 2026 12:37 ET (16:37 GMT)

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