Has NiSource (NI) Run Too Far After Its 26% One Year Share Price Gain

Simply Wall St.

May 03

If you are wondering whether NiSource is still fairly priced after its recent run, or if the market is getting ahead of itself, this article focuses squarely on what you are paying for the stock ...

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These figures can influence how investors think about both upside potential and downside risk.\nRecent coverage has focused on...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","NI":"印北瓦电","BK4208":"复合型公用事业"},"translate_title":"NiSource(NI)股价一年上涨26%后是否走得太远了","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DDM":1,"NI":1.5},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether NiSource is still fairly priced after its recent run, or if the market is getting ahead of itself, this article focuses squarely on what you are paying for the stock versus what you are getting. NiSource shares last closed at US$48.08, with returns of 0.2% over 7 days, 1.2% over 30 days, 14.0% year to date and 25.6% over the past year. These figures can influence how investors think about both upside potential and downside risk. Recent coverage has focused on NiSource's role as a regulated utility and how its capital plans, regulatory relationships and balance sheet position frame expectations for future cash flows. That backdrop helps explain why some investors are reassessing what counts as a reasonable price for the stock right now. Even so, NiSource currently scores 0 out of 6 on our valuation checks. The next sections will compare different valuation methods to unpack that score and then finish with a more holistic way to think about what the stock might be worth.  NiSource scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: NiSource Dividend Discount Model (DDM) Analysis The Dividend Discount Model estimates what NiSource might be worth today by projecting future dividends and discounting them back to a present value. It is essentially asking whether the stream of expected dividend payments justifies the current share price. For NiSource, the model uses an annual dividend per share of about US$1.34, a return on equity of 9.07% and a payout ratio of roughly 61.60%. The implied long term dividend growth rate is capped at 3.41%, which is close to the model’s calculated expected growth of 3.48%. That growth cap is intended to keep assumptions for a regulated utility stock on the conservative side and avoid overly aggressive projections. Putting those inputs together, the DDM output points to an estimated intrinsic value of about US$37.62 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$48.08, the DDM indicates NiSource trades at roughly a 27.8% premium to this dividend based estimate, which screens as overvalued on this model alone. Result: OVERVALUED Our Dividend Discount Model (DDM) analysis suggests NiSource may be overvalued by 27.8%. Discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. NI Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for NiSource. Approach 2: NiSource Price vs Earnings Approach 2: NiSource Price vs Earnings (P/E) For a profitable company like NiSource, the P/E ratio is a useful way to check what you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. It ties directly to the bottom line that ultimately supports dividends and interest costs, which is especially relevant for a regulated utility. What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on how the market weighs growth potential and risk. Higher expected earnings growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher risk usually lines up with a lower one. NiSource currently trades on a P/E of 24.87x. That sits above the Integrated Utilities industry average P/E of 18.96x and also above the peer group average of 22.67x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for NiSource is 23.13x, which is a proprietary estimate of the P/E the stock might warrant given its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margin, market cap and risk factors. This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple industry or peer comparison because it is tailored to NiSource’s own characteristics rather than relying only on broad group averages. With the current P/E of 24.87x versus a Fair Ratio of 23.13x, the stock screens as somewhat expensive on this metric. Result: OVERVALUED NYSE:NI P/E Ratio as at May 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 18 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your NiSource Narrative Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, and Narratives on Simply Wall St’s Community page give you a simple way to write the story behind your numbers by linking your view of NiSource’s future revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast. This turns that into a Fair Value, which you can then compare to today’s price. For example, one investor might build a more optimistic NiSource Narrative that lines up with a Fair Value near the higher analyst target of US$55.00. Another might focus on gas demand risks and regulatory uncertainty and land closer to the lower target of US$43.00. Each Narrative updates automatically as new news or earnings arrive, helping you decide whether the current price still fits your story. Do you think there's more to the story for NiSource? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:NI 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if NiSource might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}