What’s next for US and Mexico aluminium? Key insights from Fastmarkets’ market outlook webinar

Fastmarkets

Apr 17

Key takeaways Supply shocks from the Middle East are reshaping aluminium premiums globally, with Mexico particularly exposed due to import dependence Billet and primary foundry alloys (PFA) ...

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Key insights from Fastmarkets’ market outlook webinar","media":"Fastmarkets","content":"<div>\n<p>Key takeaways \n\nSupply shocks from the Middle East are reshaping aluminium premiums globally, with Mexico particularly exposed due to import dependence \n\n\nBillet and primary foundry alloys (PFA) ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/whats-next-for-us-and-mexico-aluminium-key-insights-from-fastmarkets-market-outlook-webinar/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fastmarkets_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What’s next for US and Mexico aluminium? 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Key insights from Fastmarkets’ market outlook webinar\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-17 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/whats-next-for-us-and-mexico-aluminium-key-insights-from-fastmarkets-market-outlook-webinar/><strong>Fastmarkets</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Key takeaways \n\nSupply shocks from the Middle East are reshaping aluminium premiums globally, with Mexico particularly exposed due to import dependence \n\n\nBillet and primary foundry alloys (PFA) ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/whats-next-for-us-and-mexico-aluminium-key-insights-from-fastmarkets-market-outlook-webinar/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GCC","symbol_name":"智慧树连续商品指数基金","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/whats-next-for-us-and-mexico-aluminium-key-insights-from-fastmarkets-market-outlook-webinar/","article_id":"2628783709","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"fastmarkets_highlight","url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/whats-next-for-us-and-mexico-aluminium-key-insights-from-fastmarkets-market-outlook-webinar/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2628783709","pubTimestamp":1776398400,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"fastmarkets_highlight","name":"Fastmarkets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Aluminium markets in the US and Mexico are facing an unprecedented mix of geopolitical disruption, trade policy shifts and tightening supply conditions.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"fastmarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"GCC":"智慧树连续商品指数基金","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","XME":"金属与采矿指数ETF-SPDR"},"translate_title":"美国和墨西哥铝业的下一步是什么？Fastmarkets市场展望网络研讨会的主要见解","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GCC":1,"XME":1.5},"content_text":"Key takeaways \n\nSupply shocks from the Middle East are reshaping aluminium premiums globally, with Mexico particularly exposed due to import dependence \n\n\nBillet and primary foundry alloys (PFA) markets are among the tightest, with limited substitution options in the short term \n\n\nScrap and recycled aluminium are becoming strategic inputs, but technical limits cap their short‑term impact \n\n\nTariff changes are accelerating adjustments in US–Mexico trade flows, intensifying discussions about tariffs and supply \n\nOn Friday April 10, Fastmarkets brought together senior price reporters, analysts and industry executives for the ‘What’s Next for US & Mexico Aluminium? Market trends, Policy & Pricing’ insights webinar.  \nFastmarkets’ Abby Verret, Andy Farida, Kirstine Veitch and Letícia Simionato, and distinguished external speakers Alejandro Jaramillo (Vice president of the Non-Ferrous Board at the Bureau of International Recycling and founding partner at Glorem) and Dmitri Ceres (Executive VP at PerenniAL), outlined how US tariffs, disruptions in the Middle East and changing trade flows are reshaping premiums, product availability and procurement strategies in the US and Mexico for 2026 and beyond. \nMiddle East disruptions are driving global aluminium tightness \nGeopolitical tensions in the Middle East are straining global aluminium markets, pushing prices and regional premiums higher. Reduced output and ongoing logistical disruption at major producers have constrained exports at a time when global inventories are already at historically low levels, amplifying the impact on regional supply balances. \nProducers in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which account for around 9% of global aluminium supply, play a key role as swing suppliers, directing material toward markets offering the strongest premiums, noted Letícia Simionato, Fastmarkets. \n“When they are disrupted, premiums everywhere react very quickly,” said Simionato.  \nMexico is feeling the impact more sharply than the United States \nWhile US Midwest premiums have risen steadily since the introduction of Section 232 tariffs, recent supply disruptions have impacted Mexico more severely, speakers said. \nAs suppliers divert material toward higher‑paying markets in Asia and Europe, Mexican buyers are facing declining availability and rapidly rising alloyed and billet premiums. \n“Sellers are declining offers into Mexico because Asia and Europe are simply more profitable right now and easier to deliver,” said Simionato. \nKirstine Veitch, Fastmarkets, highlighted that the main thing to consider is going to be the reduced availability of primary foundry alloy (PFA). “There are not a lot of alternative options. Most of the wheel producers in Mexico were sourcing well-qualified material both from ALBA and EGA. The reduction in volumes from the big two producers in the GCC is a huge hit,” said Veitch.  \nBillet premiums under exceptional pressure \nSpeakers noted that billet premiums in some regions have already doubled relative to pre‑conflict levels, with further upside risks if supply constraints persist into the second half of the year. \nReplacing billet supply does not require the same qualification processes as PFA, Veitch said. “There are a few more alternative suppliers. We could see the possibility of jumping into a greater proportion of remelt billet if there is scrap availability.”  \nSupply deficits have widened sharply, and prices are responding \nFastmarkets’ Andy Farida explained that the global supply-demand balance for primary aluminium deteriorated dramatically over the past few months. \n“There are really not enough smelters out there to be able to provide that safe buffer, unless we are talking about ‘unsanctioning sanctioned metals’,” said Farida.  \nDmitri Ceres, Perennial, highlighted that the inventory itself of aluminium will not be able to supplement the upcoming deficit. \n“Over the last two years, downstream consumers were typically buying only 50–60% of their contracted volumes rather than fully covering expected demand. But the latest supply‑side shock is likely to change that, with manufacturers moving back toward contracting closer to 100% — or even higher — to secure material.” \nPrices may grow more volatile, Farida said. “For now, the bullish momentum in the very short term can stay, but we are just mindful of what it could mean. The next resistance [for LME prices] after we break $3,500 per tonne is $3,750 per tonne. Then you take $4,000 per tonne”.  \nLow‑carbon aluminium: low demand amid supply constraints \n“With the Middle East conflict, aluminium is like gold – buyers are saying that they are taking what they can get and are not very picky about requiring low-carbon,” said Simionato.  \nLow‑carbon aluminium premiums diverge sharply by region. Europe and Asia remain more advanced in accepting low‑carbon premiums, while North America has historically resisted paying these premiums.  \nMexico stands out as a regional growth market for low‑carbon aluminium in North America due to demand from packaging and automotive manufacturers. \n“Although few companies in Mexico demand low-carbon aluminium, it’s still a highlight compared to the US”, Simionato added.  \nScrap has become a strategic raw material in North America \nThe panel discussion underscored a major structural shift: scrap is no longer just a secondary input, but a core risk management tool. \n“Recycled aluminium is a strategic raw material. It has the benefit of being regional and thus being a hedge against foreign wars, shipping disruptions, and even tariffs. I would encourage all downstream participants to look at scrap as part of your long-term plans,” explained Alejandro Jaramillo.  \nJaramillo also highlighted the fact that US Section 232 tariffs apply to primary aluminium but not scrap. \n“When a particular geography, like what’s happening in the US, becomes the best paying, it attracts scrap units. More scrap coming from Europe and Asia is creating higher inventories in the country. However, there are technical limits to the use of scrap — there’s a limited number of smelters in the US that can turn scrap into value-added products”, added Jaramillo.  \nTariff changes are reshaping US–Mexico trade flows \nRecent changes to how US tariffs apply to derivative goods are already influencing sourcing strategies.  \nGoods made with significant amounts of aluminium will now pay a flat 25% duty on their full value, a departure from the previous rule of collecting tariffs on only the metals component of a product imported into the US.  Meanwhile, articles made entirely or almost entirely of aluminium will pay a flat 50% on their full value. US‑origin aluminium processed abroad is now subject to a lower tariff rate of 10%. \n“Market is trying to understand how this will affect upstream products vs. downstream applications”, said Simionato.  \n“A large amount of Mexican downstream manufacturers will be better off buying US-based metal, importing into Mexico, building their products, and then shipping the final products to the United States and paying only the 10% tariff,” Ceres said.  \nMarket participants are recalibrating strategies \nDespite talk of ceasefires, sentiment remains cautious. \n“Market participants have a lot of questions and fears. Even if a ceasefire holds, the damage is already done – supply normalization will take time”, said Simionato.  \n“The industry is trying to be proactive, with producers trying to explore alternative logistics routes; companies building safety inventory levels and trying to diversify sourcing”, she added. \nVolatility will persist across US and Mexico aluminium markets \nThe outlook for the US and Mexican aluminium markets points to continued volatility rather than a rapid return to balance. Geopolitical risk, constrained primary supply, evolving trade rules and rising premiums are forcing producers, traders and consumers to reassess sourcing strategies, inventory management and the role of recycling in supply resilience.  \nEven if geopolitical tensions ease, speakers cautioned that premium volatility, tight billet availability and competition for alternative units are likely to remain defining market fixtures in the months ahead. \n\n\n\n\n\nWhat’s Next for US & Mexico Aluminium? Market trends, Policy & Pricing\nDiscover the key drivers shaping regional aluminium prices","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}