MW Corona brewer's stock has rallied ahead of earnings amid signs of improving beer sales

By Bill Peters

The World Cup and the U.S.' 250th anniversary could get people to drink more beer, analysts say, but going to the bar isn't getting any cheaper

Shares of Constellation Brands have bounced this year, amid hopes that beer drinking will pick back up.

When Constellation Brands reports fourth-quarter results after the market close on Wednesday, Wall Street will be looking for signs of a rebound for the maker of Corona and Modelo, after executives last year said worries about the economy and ICE raids were keeping more of its Hispanic consumers from going out.

But as the beer-and-wine giant heads into this year, it will face questions about new leadership, concerns about the Iran war and impacts of surging gas prices on an already-strained consumer and the company's own costs.

Constellation's $(STZ)$ results will arrive amid ongoing questions about whether increasingly health-conscious consumers still feel like drinking, as costs of living keep rising. GLP-1 use and a bigger focus on wellness have also kept some younger consumers away from alcohol.

Analysts at JPMorgan last week said events such as the Olympics, the World Cup and the 250th anniversary of the U.S. could get more people to drink more beer this year, potentially benefiting a company like Constellation. Things like bigger tax refunds, they said, could free up consumer spending.

Lawson Whiting, the CEO of Brown-Forman $(BF.B)$, the maker of Jack Daniel's, said at a conference last month that demand trends for spirits, at least, appeared to "hit a bottom" late last year.

The JPMorgan analysts said this year would likely be "less onerous" than last year for Constellation. But they said the consumer backdrop was "likely to remain choppy and still relatively weak."

The average analyst sales estimate compiled by FactSet for the current year is $9.14 billion, which is just above the FactSet consensus of $9.10 billion for the year that ended February. A year ago, sales came in at $10.21 billion.

What to expect

Earnings: Analysts polled by FactSet expect, on average, Constellation to report adjusted earnings per share of $1.71 for its fourth quarter, which ran through February, down from adjusted EPS of $2.63 in the same period a year ago.

Sales: Wall Street expects $1.88 billion in net sales. While that would represent a 13% decrease from a year ago, analysts expect sales in Constellation's large beer business to be up 1.7% at $1.73 billion.

Stock: Shares of Constellation were down 0.8% in recent afternoon trading on Tuesday. The stock is up 11.7% so far this year, compared with the 3.7% decline in the S&P 500 index SPX, amid hopes that a turnaround is taking place. The stock is still down 10.8% over the past 12 months, while the S&P 500 has rallied 30.2%.

What analysts are saying

In February, Constellation said its board appointed Nicholas Fink to succeed Bill Newlands as its next CEO, a change that takes effect on April 13. Analysts said that the move signaled little shift in strategy, but said the leadership transition, along with the broader consumer backdrop, could make for a more cautious forecast from the company.

Last year, Constellation said Hispanic consumers accounted for around half of its beer business. Executives said Hispanic consumers were gathering less frequently, following President Donald Trump's aggressive deportation campaign. A weaker construction market has also weighed on beer demand.

Roth analyst Bill Kirk said in a note on Monday that, during Constellation's fourth quarter, alcohol receipts at places like bars, breweries and restaurants in Texas - a state he used to loosely gauge demand among Hispanic consumers - were up 4.1% year over year.

Analysts will also focus on so-called depletions, or alcohol sales by distributors to retailers, as well as costs from tariffs on aluminum. Kirk said depletion trends at Constellation improved from December through February, with that momentum extending into March.

"With the World Cup, tax refunds, a ban on intoxicating hemp, and lapping disruptions to Hispanic consumer habits, Constellation Brands beer depletions should improve and justify re-rating," he said.

Other companies that sell so-called discretionary items, like Levi Strauss $(LEVI)$ and Nike $(NKE)$, have downplayed the impact of the Middle East conflict so far. But as costs of living rise, so have the costs of going out to the bar, particularly for younger consumers, who may be less established in their careers and hit harder by inflation.

As Whiting, Brown-Forman's CEO, noted last month, the cost of going out and drinking cocktails for a 25-year-old in New York City is "borderline prohibitive ... It's very, very expensive."

-Bill Peters

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April 07, 2026 14:32 ET (18:32 GMT)

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