By Ken Thomas and Rachel Wolfe | Photography by Luke Sharrett for WSJ

ERLANGER, Ky. -- Roberta Wolfe, a nurse from nearby Florence, Ky., cast her ballot for President Trump in 2024 because she saw him as more focused on the economy and "draining the swamp" in the federal government. But now she sees the U.S. involved in another Middle Eastern conflict, and it "scares the hell out of me."

"We've got our own problems and it's so far away," Wolfe said over lunch recently at the Hive, a restaurant and coffeehouse owned by the mayor of this suburb near Cincinnati, pointing to rising gasoline prices and tepid job growth. "We can't be completely isolationist but sometimes you have to stay within your own home."

Two weeks after Trump's decision to take military action in Iran, more than a dozen interviews with voters here in a Republican stronghold revealed anxiety over the potential for another elongated U.S. war to distract from domestic concerns. The White House has said the military campaign would last four to six weeks, and elevated gas prices were only temporary.

Most polls since the start of the U.S.-Israel bombing campaign find that the U.S. involvement is unpopular, with about 55% or more of voters opposing Trump's decision to go to war. Polls by Fox News, NPR/PBS and Quinnipiac University find support at about 84% among the GOP for U.S. action or Trump's handling of Iran. But the polls found somewhere between 11% and nearly 25% of Republicans oppose Trump's handling of Iran.

In a recent NBC News survey, 90% of Republicans who consider themselves part of Trump's MAGA movement supported military action against Iran. But among non-MAGA Republicans, 54% supported the U.S. attack. The NBC News poll also found that voters see inflation and the cost of living as the top issue facing the nation.

The president traveled to northern Kentucky near Cincinnati this past week as part of his campaign to oust Rep. Thomas Massie, a Republican who has represented the area for more than a decade and has clashed with Trump over many issues, including the military strikes in Iran.

The May 19 primary could serve as a window into not only Republican views of the economy and the strength of Trump's endorsement, but also on the president's decision to intervene in the Middle East. It pits Massie against Trump-backed Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL who was part of Operation Just Cause, the U.S. military invasion of Panama that led to the surrender of Manuel Noriega in 1990.

During Wednesday's event, Trump heaped criticism upon Massie, calling him "disloyal to the United States of America." He brought Gallrein on stage, saying of his handpicked challenger: "He's like central casting."

Massie said in a statement that Trump was "upset I'm more loyal to the people of Kentucky, the Constitution and the principles of the Republican Party than I am to any President."

Average regular gasoline prices nationally were around $3.68 a gallon on Saturday, according to AAA, a 23% increase from before the war started at the end of February. In northern Kentucky, most stations recently showed prices approaching $3.50 for regular unleaded, an increase of more than 50 cents compared with a month ago, according to AAA.

The volatility is rooted in a waterway thousands of miles away. The Strait of Hormuz, which separates Iran from the Arabian Peninsula, serves as a transit point for roughly 20% of the world's oil. With the conflict halting around 95% of prewar traffic through the corridor, according to Syracuse University supply chain management professor Patrick Penfield, markets are pricing in a conflict premium that flows to American pumps.

"When you even hear about the Strait of Hormuz, it's because there's going to be crazy fluctuations in the gas prices," said Zachary Metz, an attorney and Republican activist in nearby Campbell County who supports Massie.

"There was that meme that went around where everybody would stick stickers to gas pumps of Joe Biden pointing at the gas prices, saying, 'I did that.' Well, it's the same thing with President Trump," Metz said.

Before the military action, Trump frequently pointed to falling gas prices. But since then, the administration has been forced to take steps to attempt to alleviate price increases, including an announcement Wednesday that it was joining with allies to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency stocks to bring down crude prices in the weeks ahead. Trump has called the conflict a "short-term excursion" that will prevent Iran from continuing to destabilize the Middle East and has faulted his predecessors for not taking on Iran.

"It's going to have a short-term financial impact but it's going to be for the greater good and long-term stability," said Edith Riley, a Trump supporter who waited in line outside the president's event in Hebron, Ky., along with her husband, Tyson.

Zechariah Young, an electrician from Williamstown, Ky., said taking military action in Iran was long overdue. Young, who also stood outside the Trump rally, said Trump's actions were part of the process of the U.S. becoming less reliant on energy from the Middle East and becoming "more self-sufficient."

Still, Friday's price of around $99 a barrel of oil is below June 2022's average of around $127 a barrel, adjusted for inflation, tied to the war in Ukraine. And it is far from 2008's spike above an inflation-adjusted $200 during the financial crisis, according to data from Louisiana State University's Center for Energy Studies. Gasoline prices are also still below the $4 a gallon that Syracuse's Penfield cites as the line where people really start to feel a pinch. Based on past spikes, Penfield says, $4 is "when everyone starts to get really upset."

Economists say the threat to the economy isn't just about the price of a gallon -- it's about the economic anxiety that war produces.

"War is an economic shock that goes far beyond oil," said Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan. When consumers feel that the world is more uncertain, they "become less willing to make large, long-term investments, like buying a house," Wolfers said.

For Ashton Rose, who works as a cook at a restaurant in Cold Spring, Ky., it means putting less fuel in his Chevy Impala to keep costs down, and scouring local gas stations for the lowest price.

Rose said he voted for Trump in 2016 but didn't cast ballots in the last two presidential elections and has been disillusioned by what he has seen since then.

"I don't see how it's benefiting the American citizens in any way, shape or form," he said of the Iran war, as he filled up his tank.

Write to Ken Thomas at ken.thomas@wsj.com and Rachel Wolfe at rachel.wolfe@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 14, 2026 21:00 ET (01:00 GMT)

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