Assessing Origin Energy’s Valuation As Oil Prices Surge On Middle East Conflict

Simply Wall St.

Mar 13

AdvertisementOrigin Energy in focus after oil price spike The recent surge in oil prices above US$100 per barrel has sharpened attention on Origin Energy (ASX:ORG), given its 27.5% interest in the ...

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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAssessing Origin Energy’s Valuation As Oil Prices Surge On Middle East Conflict\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-13 02:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/utilities/asx-org/origin-energy-shares/news/assessing-origin-energys-valuation-as-oil-prices-surge-on-mi><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AdvertisementOrigin Energy in focus after oil price spike The recent surge in oil prices above US$100 per barrel has sharpened attention on Origin Energy (ASX:ORG), given its 27.5% interest in the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/utilities/asx-org/origin-energy-shares/news/assessing-origin-energys-valuation-as-oil-prices-surge-on-mi\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK7507","symbol_name":"资源股","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/utilities/asx-org/origin-energy-shares/news/assessing-origin-energys-valuation-as-oil-prices-surge-on-mi","article_id":"2619152822","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/1031000-choice2-main-header/1585186666598"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/utilities/asx-org/origin-energy-shares/news/assessing-origin-energys-valuation-as-oil-prices-surge-on-mi","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2619152822","pubTimestamp":1773340229,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Origin Energy in focus after oil price spike\nThe recent surge in oil prices above US$100 per barrel has sharpened attention on Origin Energy (ASX:ORG), given its 27.5% interest in the Australia Pacific LNG project and exposure to higher LNG pricing.\nSee our latest analysis for Origin Energy.\nDespite the latest share price of A$11.59 and a 1-day share price return decline of 0.34%, Origin’s 30-day share price return of 5.46% and 1-year total shareholder return of 19.41% suggest momentum has...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK7507":"资源股","BK7006":"电力公用事业","ORG.AU":"ORIGIN ENERGY LTD","BK7130":"综合性石油与天然气企业"},"translate_title":"随着中东冲突导致油价飙升，评估Origin Energy的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ORG.AU":1.5},"content_text":"AdvertisementOrigin Energy in focus after oil price spike The recent surge in oil prices above US$100 per barrel has sharpened attention on Origin Energy (ASX:ORG), given its 27.5% interest in the Australia Pacific LNG project and exposure to higher LNG pricing. See our latest analysis for Origin Energy. Despite the latest share price of A$11.59 and a 1-day share price return decline of 0.34%, Origin’s 30-day share price return of 5.46% and 1-year total shareholder return of 19.41% suggest momentum has recently firmed alongside heightened interest in LNG exposure and director buying. If higher energy prices have you thinking beyond a single name, it could be a good time to scan 23 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks as another way to spot opportunities linked to energy infrastructure trends. With Origin trading at A$11.59 and sitting on an intrinsic value estimate that suggests a sizeable discount, while only showing a small gap to broker targets, you have to ask yourself: is there real mispricing here, or is the market already banking on future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 3.8% Undervalued Origin Energy’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at A$12.05, slightly above the last close of A$11.59, using a 6.85% discount rate.  Current investor optimism appears to be pricing in uninterrupted growth from the electrification of transport, industry, and heat, but guidance suggests Origin anticipates broadly flat residential electricity demand as efficiency gains and distributed resources partially offset new load, posing a risk to long-term electricity revenue. Expectations for margin expansion may be overstated, as global decarbonisation policies and escalating investor ESG requirements are likely to drive higher compliance costs and accelerate fossil asset retirements, putting downward pressure on net margins amid the ongoing transition.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see how a flat top line, thinner margins, and a richer future earnings multiple still support that A$12 handle and beyond? The narrative leans heavily on detailed revenue paths, margin resets, and a higher P/E in a sector where growth assumptions matter. If you want to understand which earnings and pricing trade offs are baked into this A$12.05 fair value, the full story is worth a close read. Result: Fair Value of A$12.05 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, there is still a chance that stronger execution in Octopus and Kraken, or higher returning renewables and storage projects, could push earnings assumptions higher. Find out about the key risks to this Origin Energy narrative. Next Steps If this mix of optimism and caution has you thinking twice, do not wait on someone else’s verdict. Instead, review the balance of 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs and decide where you stand. Looking for more investment ideas? If Origin has sharpened your focus, do not stop here; use the same energy to scan other potential opportunities that fit the kind of portfolio you want to build.  Spot potential value opportunities early by checking out screener containing 13 high quality undiscovered gems that our screener flags for strong fundamentals and limited current attention. Prioritise capital preservation by reviewing 7 resilient stocks with low risk scores that screen well on our risk scoring and balance sheet checks. Strengthen your income core by assessing 8 dividend fortresses that pair higher yields with solid financial backing.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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