As the interim report season draws to a close in late August, investors are wondering what lies ahead for the A-share market. After surveying the views of 10 major brokerages, most believe that while external uncertainties remain unresolved, A-shares have demonstrated considerable resilience and are likely to continue their rebound after a period of consolidation. The earnings season is seen as a relatively attractive window for positioning in the second half of the year.

China Galaxy Securities noted that the index level continues to face volatility due to overseas fluctuations and chip structure disruptions, with ongoing sector rotation and rebalancing. However, external shocks are largely temporary, as domestic policy signals and the core industry logic remain intact. "The mid-term rebound is not over; we are currently in the 'pullback' phase of an 'advance-two, retreat-one' pattern. After consolidation, there is still room for further gains, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the market," said Zheshang Securities.

Guosen Securities further pointed out that the dense interim report disclosures in August could mark a turning point where the market shifts from valuation digestion to earnings-driven momentum, making the earnings season a relatively good allocation window for the latter half of the year. In terms of positioning, several brokerages recommend focusing on marginal improvements in interim earnings trends during this verification period. China Galaxy Securities suggested that in the latter half of Q3, the market will likely see structural rotation and repair, with opportunities centered around policy themes and earnings confirmation. East Money Securities added that with interim disclosures nearing their final stretch, earnings signals are becoming clearer, and investors should watch for sectors where earnings trends are improving but share prices have not yet run up significantly and valuations remain below historical averages.

On operational strategy, Zheshang Securities advised that innovative drugs have risen sharply recently, so investors can selectively buy on dips but should not chase highs recklessly. Securities and Hang Seng Tech are gradually completing their "pullback" phase and can be entered on dips, with similar approaches for media, computers, and central state-owned enterprises. Additionally, with recent frequent property policy announcements, related targets deserve moderate attention.

CITIC Securities highlighted that the complexity of market dynamics is increasing. The recent correction in tech stocks cannot be simply attributed to high US long-term bond yields; it reflects deeper questions about the forward pricing of AI-related stocks, with three key narrative variables: whether the pace and scope of commercialization can keep up with market expectations, whether computing power advantages translate into market share and pricing power, and whether current computing power gaps will significantly widen future AI model gaps. The consensus concern is the pace and scope of commercialization, while the biggest potential variable is whether "distillation prevention" will re-widen model gaps in the future. On macro factors, the US Treasury's bond buyback has limited impact, though near-term dollar weakness and cooling rate-hike expectations could help narrow the global market's K-shaped divergence. However, the factors driving persistent upward pressure on US long-end yields have not fundamentally changed, and disruptions may continue. Under these external pressures, A-shares' short-term capital structure is raising the complexity of market dynamics, and investors should manage expectations and avoid excessive grand narratives during this volatile phase.

Huatai Securities believes the market may be in a phase of volatile rebalancing. Institutional chips in previously strong sectors have not been fully digested, constraining the expansion of the main theme, but earnings improvements are spreading to more industries, providing structural support. Therefore, allocation should shift away from chasing crowded trades toward sectors with "allocation gaps." Four directions are worth attention: first, within the AI chain, prioritize communication equipment where valuations and earnings expectations are still reasonably aligned, followed by AI power, semiconductor materials, and semiconductor equipment with improving fundamentals; copper connections and MLCC are already fairly priced and need fresh catalysts. Second, outside tech, consider ships, batteries, construction machinery, and agriculture, where earnings are marginally improving but share prices remain low. Third, a weaker dollar serves as an external catalyst for structural moves, favoring industrial metals like copper and aluminum and innovative drugs with earnings momentum. Fourth, dividend plays should remain the core portfolio anchor, with preference for banks and transportation, supplemented by coal where earnings are improving.

China Galaxy Securities reiterated that external uncertainties have not fully cleared and remain a medium-term source of disruption. Geopolitically, US-Iran talks have made little progress, with control and sovereignty disputes over the Strait of Hormuz still the focal point, and oil prices continue to reflect geopolitical risk premiums on the supply side. On monetary policy, market expectations for Fed rate hikes have cooled, with attention on Jackson Hole comments for marginal shifts. Last week, volatility in long-end US Treasury yields amplified global equity swings, reflecting sovereign debt risk premiums from expanded fiscal supply and term premium increases, compounded by recurring AI narrative concerns that hit tech stocks. Domestically, policy signals are the key focus, with expectations rising for new infrastructure. The August 21 State Council meeting deployed next-generation communication network construction, signaling a shift from top-level planning to concrete policy implementation. Meanwhile, first-tier cities are lowering home purchase thresholds and optimizing provident fund policies, releasing stabilization signals. In the short term, indices face volatility from overseas fluctuations and chip structure disruptions, but external shocks are temporary, and domestic policy signals and industry logic remain firm. For the latter half of Q3, the market will likely see structural rotation and repair, with opportunities centered on policy themes and earnings confirmation.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities said short-term market movements align with the "four-step" playbook for AI chain strength. After oversold bounces, AI industry disruptions resurfaced alongside concerns over high US bond yields, triggering a second dip. The medium-term view remains unchanged, with the rebound potentially extending into late September. Policy support could spark a concentrated release of long-, medium-, and short-term optimism, possibly marking the rebound's peak. The virtuous capital cycle will not quickly return to late-June levels, and AI chain new highs require fundamental expectations to surpass that period. Compared with 2025 experience, the industry catalysts needed to restart the AI rally are more significant, and the time required is likely longer. As a result, September may not see new highs and could bring another correction phase, with market expectations shifting from monthly to quarterly consolidation for tech. High US bond yields stem from both medium-term and short-term factors. The yield uptick is not new; the stock market's concentrated pricing reflects tech correction phases compounded by high-rate concerns, which is more characteristic of a minor swing. The medium-term issue is that Fed easing faces constraints, requiring a marginal weakening in AI capex support for the economy. Returning to a favorable investment clock quadrant will take time and requires fundamental expectations to face setbacks. A reasonable market inference is that before the next tech rally, there may be a phase of concentrated risk release. In terms of allocation, as the September rebound extends, the focus should be on directions that can recover losses most effectively in oversold bounces. Within the AI chain, favor non-institutional heavy positions, domestic computing power chains, and small-cap AI names. Additionally, in the global computing power chain, sectors where earnings inflection points appear later and near-term catalysts are fresh, such as memory and PCB, are likely to deliver high elasticity, with new "computing power inflation" segments and targets worth exploring.

China Merchants Securities warned that short-term A-share volatility may increase. The rise in long-end US Treasury yields reflects structural issues like AI financing crowding out, fiscal deficits, and term premium increases; Treasury buybacks can only ease local liquidity pressure. External rates and geopolitical risks will suppress short-term risk appetite, pushing A-shares into a phase emphasizing earnings and structure. Domestic policies to expand demand, "six networks," and property measures are accelerating, but the economy remains in a K-shaped pattern with weak aggregates and divergent old-new drivers. Thus, opportunities are concentrated in tech innovation, high-end equipment exports, and low-valuation sectors benefiting from policy implementation. Short-term volatility may intensify, with allocation balanced across tech innovation, manufacturing exports, and low-valuation policy-driven themes, focusing on electronics, mechanical equipment, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and coal.

Guosen Securities expects the market to enter a new phase of structural upside. Looking ahead, a rebound is likely, with the August interim disclosure period potentially serving as the turning point from valuation digestion to earnings-driven momentum, making it a solid allocation window for H2. The core concern is the sustainability of overseas AI capex, but since 2020, at least two similar debates have been settled by the next earnings release, with each debate accompanied by 10%-20% sector pullbacks followed by recovery within months. Currently, both domestic and international tech earnings are growing strongly, and overall earnings growth is recovering alongside PPI, with full-A non-financial interim earnings growth potentially reaching double digits. Combined with systematic policy support and A-shares' declining sensitivity to overseas shocks, the market may enter a new phase of structural upside.

Zheshang Securities emphasized that the mid-term rebound is not over, merely in the "pullback" phase of an "advance-two, retreat-one" pattern, and further gains are possible after consolidation. The Shanghai Composite Index recently rebounded to 3994 points, near the 0.5 retracement of the decline since May and the 4000-point mark, so encountering resistance and entering consolidation is normal; after solidifying, it should resume upward. For tech stocks, the ChiNext rebounded to 3747 points, near the 0.5 retracement of the decline since late June, making the "pullback" phase reasonable, with capacity for another advance after consolidation. In allocation, innovative drugs have risen sharply and can be selectively bought on dips but not chased; securities and Hang Seng Tech are completing their "pullback" and can be entered on dips, with similar logic for media, computers, and central SOEs; frequent property policy news warrants moderate attention to related targets.

East Money Securities advised a selective approach. From a top-down perspective, short-term risk appetite should not be overly aggressive, and portfolios should balance offense and defense, seeking progress amid stability. Overseas markets carry uncertainty, but A-shares show strong resilience, so the key is stock selection. Style-wise, tilt toward resources and selected value names. Overall, Middle East geopolitical risks persist, super El Nino risks are rising, overseas stagflation risks are increasing, and US stock, bond, and currency volatility remains, creating a relatively favorable environment for resource products. Consider allocating to precious metals, energy, and agricultural resources, alongside value blue-chips with reasonable valuations, industry prosperity, or stable earnings growth. From a meso perspective, interim disclosures are nearing their end, and earnings signals are becoming clearer; focus on sectors with marginal earnings improvements, limited prior share price gains, and valuations below historical averages. Industries to watch include non-ferrous metals (precious metals, copper), energy (coal, petrochemicals, new energy), agriculture, banking, power, utilities, pharmaceuticals, IT software, gaming, brokerages, and consumer staples.

Everbright Securities predicts a market rebound. The August interim disclosure period could become the turning point from valuation digestion to earnings-driven momentum, with the earnings season possibly being the best allocation window for H2. Both domestic and international tech earnings are growing strongly, and overall earnings growth is recovering with PPI, with full-A non-financial interim earnings growth potentially around 15%. Combined with systematic policy support and A-shares' declining sensitivity to overseas shocks, the August disclosure period could mark the inflection point. Allocation should center on three earnings lines: first, tech hardware (semiconductors/AI computing/storage), the strongest improvement direction; second, the price-hike chain (non-ferrous/chemicals/coal), directly benefiting from PPI recovery with high earnings certainty; third, export manufacturing (energy storage/power equipment/automobiles), benefiting from global manufacturing restocking and supply chain advantages. Additionally, non-bank finance, pharmaceuticals/CRO (innovative drug exports), and defense (order inflection points) deserve attention for interim prosperity, presenting multiple parallel earnings lines.

Huaan Securities believes the rebound remains underway. US Treasury yields have surged, but the Treasury's strong intervention stance suggests this is a brief disturbance, especially amid the strong AI industry cycle and absent substantive default risks. US-Iran tensions are volatile, but Trump's demands are clear, making uncertainty a temporary factor. External risks are transient disruptions, and interim earnings continue to deliver high prosperity, supporting the view that the rebound since August is still in progress. The tech theme remains unchanged, with oversold AI chain segments, especially upstream and midstream, being the best choices, alongside closely related directions like mechanical equipment, robotics, gaming, and software.